Portfolio

Stay tuned for a full update next month, but it's nice to be back in the black... especially with the benchmarks still struggling.  Thanks to Enviva (EVA), Covanta (CVA), and Seaspan (SSW).  Until then, here's the May update, where I said EVA and CVA were two of my 3 top short term picks , and I commented that "I still think Seaspan has significant room to the upside." AY (at $18.91) and TERP (at $10.83) are my top short term picks right now. Disclosure: Long EVA, HIFR, GPP, BEP, TERP, PEGI, AY, NYLD, NYLD/A, CVA, SSW.

I'm trying something different and doing quick updates on individual stocks in my 10 Clean Energy Stocks model portfolio as I have time to write.  The portfolio as a whole has been accelerating with the instant torque of an electric vehicle this year (details here.)  I thought I'd start with the company that's newest to my readers, Valeo SA (FR.PA, VLEEF) 12/31/18 Price: €25.21/$28.20.  Annual Dividend: €1.25. Expected 2019 dividend: €1.25.  03/4/19 price: €29.13/$33.00.  YTD gain: 15.5% Euro/ 12.8% USD. I added this stock to the portfolio because it has great technology and and improving market share, but weak industry growth and overoptimistic management projections in 2018...

by Tom Konrad Ph.D., CFA Last week, I neglected to discuss Terraform Power (NASD: TERP) in the third quarter update on the other ten clean energy stocks for 2018.  I did not notice the omission until after the post had been published, so I decided to write a quick follow-up this week after I had a chance to digest the earnings announcements (including TERP's) which were scheduled for later in the week. Stock discussion Clearway Energy, Inc (NYSE: CWEN and CWEN/A) 12/31/17 Price: $18.90 / $18.85.  Annual Dividend: $1.133(6.0%). Expected 2018 dividend: $1.26(6.7%)  Low Target: $14.  High Target: $25.  10/31/18 Price: $19.61/$19.42  ...

It's hard to find anything to complain about in the first two month's performance of my 10 Clean Energy Stocks for 2019 model portfolio.  Unfortunately, I'm about to go on vacation and don't have time to do an update on all the earnings reports that have come out over the last two weeks.  I will try to get to them individually as I have time. Strategically, I'd like to say I'm getting very nervous about this market rally, and think that readers should be taking profits opportunistically and increasing your cash positions.

As you can see from the chart, September was a tough month for my model portfolio of Ten Clean Energy Stocks for 2018.  Seaspan (SSW) fell back on trade war fears and Green Plains Partners (GPP) fell on ethanol market weakness caused by retaliatory ethanol tariffs and the Trump EPA's continued undermining of the Renewable Fuel Standard.  I'm less sure why Covanta (CVA) is down, but Clearway Energy's (CWEN and CWEN-A formerly NRG Yield) small decline is due to a recent secondary offering. Two of these (CVA and GPP) were my top picks last month, while the third was Terraform Power (TERP). ...

In April, my 10 clean energy stocks model portfolio continued to power ahead, despite the concerns about market valuation I expressed last month.  As I said at the time "me being nervous about the market is not much of an indicator that stocks are going to fall" at least in the short term.  So I continue to trim winning positions and increase my allocation to cash as stocks advance. Both the model portfolio and the Green Global Equity Income Portfolio (GGEIP) were up 4.5% and 3.6% respectively in April.  This was solidly ahead of their clean energy income benchmark YLCO...

I missed my regular monthly update in early June because of vacation. In hindsight, early June looks like it was a good buying opportunity. The broad market of dividend stocks (represented by my benchmark SDY) falling six percent in May, only to rebound a similar amount in June. At the time, I would have continued to advise caution: “Sell the peaks” rather than “Buy the dips.” Particularly volatile stocks like European autoparts supplier Valeo (FR.PA) from this list would have generated even greater short term gains. But it would take more than a six percent market decline to transform this bear...

by Tom Konrad Ph.D., CFA Covanta Holding Corp. (NYSE:CVA) 12/31/18 Price: $13.42.  Annual Dividend: $1.00. Expected 2019 dividend: $1.00.  Low Target: $13.  High Target: $25. 3/26/19 Price: $17.86. YTD Dividend: $0.25. YTD Yield: 1.9%  YTD Appreciation: 33.1% YTD Total Return: 34.9% Leading waste-to-energy operator Covanta's stock has been the second best performing holding in my 10 Clean Energy Stocks for 2019 model portfolio.  While in many ways the company is similar to the clean energy Yieldcos that dominate the model portfolio, it is different in that it develops its own projects, while most Yieldcos depend on a sponsor to develop projects which...

by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA Over the last couple years, I've given paying subscribers a chance to see my annual list one trading day early.  I did not get it organized this year, but I just got an email from a past participant who was interested.  I initially said no, I'd rather be fair to all readers but then I thought maybe there are others who can benefit. I currently have a list of 11 stocks, which I will be narrowing down to 10 after the close on Dec 31st.  Anyone who forwards me (tom@thiswebsite.com) an email confirming a donation in...

by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA In the past, I've allowed readers to pay for early access to the list of the 10 stocks I will pick for the model portfolio the next year.  This year, early access to the top 10 list will be a perk for all my patrons on Patreon, who get a first peak at drafts of all my articles.  I posted a draft of this article on December 18th. It's going to be hard to pick 10 stocks that I think are good values this year, but it's past time to start thinking about it.  I thought...