10 Clean Energy Stocks Mar 21

Clean Energy Stock Deflation and Biden’s Infrastructure Plan

By Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA Last month saw buying opportunities in some clean energy stocks as the bubble created from the euphoria over Biden’s election vanished as if it never happened. Clean energy stocks have simply returned to the general upward trendline from the second and third quarter of 2020.  Rather than bursting in a market panic, this seems to have been more of a general deflation. Some clean energy stocks seem reasonably priced, but there are no great values like we often see during the market panics which typically follow bubbles.  Without a panic, I’m not ready to buy aggressively.  Stocks...

10 Clean Energy Stocks: Returns Through February/ Poll

by Tom Konrad Ph.D., CFA I'm experimenting with how to display the returns of the 10 Clean Energy Stocks model portfolio.  My Patreon supporters seem fairly evenly split between the two options show below, so I'm opening the poll up to my broader readership. You can see the two most popular options below (with real return data through the end of February) and take the poll here. Comments are welcome as well. DISCLOSURE: Long all stocks in the model portfolio.
10 Clean Energy Stocks for 2021 January

January Performance: 10 Clean Energy Stocks for 2021

You can find the original list here.  I'll be doing commentary on individual stocks as there is news.  The first of these is on MiX Telematics (MIXT) earnings, first published for my Patreon subscribers on January 28th and copied below.  A note on Scorpio Bulkers (SALT) from February first will be published here tomorrow. MiX Earnings MiX Telematics (MIXT) reported earnings this morning .  The numbers showed improvement over the previous quarter, but a decline over the previous year due to the covid crisis which was exacerbated by the strengthening dollar. The results were pretty much what I expected when I added...
Model portfolio v benchmarks

Year in Review: 10 Clean Energy Stocks for 2020

by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA Looking Back At the end of 2019, I was worried about overvaluation.   I wrote that my main goal for the 10 Clean Energy Stocks for 2020 list was “to find stocks which will be resilient in the event of a US bear market.”  We certainly had a bear market in 2020, although it was nothing like the kind of bear market I had been anticipating.  The bear market was precipitated by the coronavirus pandemic, rather than overvaluation. While I can claim to have anticipated the 2020 bear market, if not its nature, I was surprised by two other...

10 Clean Energy Stocks for 2021: Diversification

by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA Rounding out the discussion of the stocks in my 10 Clean Energy Stocks for 2021 list are the two that don’t fit either of the themes I highlighted for 2021: Picks and Shovels or a Possible Yieldco Boom.  Both help with diversification, both in terms of their industry and geography. MiX Telematics (MIXT) was retained from the Ten Clean Energy Stocks for 2020 list because I expect its prospects to improve rapidly as the world comes out of covid lockdowns.  The global vehicle telematics provider has a large number of its customers among mass transit, logistics,...
Yieldcos stock chart 2H 2020

The Yieldco Virtuous Cycle

by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA Readers who followed my coverage of the Yieldco bubble in 2015 know the Yieldco Virtuous Cycle.   A Yieldco’s stock price rises It issues new shares, and invests the money in renewable energy projects.   Because the stock price is high, it is able to buy more project cash flow by issuing fewer shares than it has in the past. Cash flow available for distribution (CAFD) per share increases, despite the increasing number of shares outstanding. Yieldco management sets a target for continued rapid annual distribution growth, which can be met either by further share issuance (if...
Clean energy stocks 2H 2020

Four Picks and Shovels Stocks

by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA The last three months of 2020 brought an explosion in clean energy stock prices. Solar stocks (as measured by the Invesco Solar ETF (TAN), nearly tripled.  So did the Invesco Wilderhill Clean Energy ETF (PBW), which includes a broader spectrum of companies.  Wind stock rose 61%, and even the relatively sedate Yieldcos were up 32%.  The stars of the last half of 2020 was undoubtedly Tesla (TSLA, up 246%) and other electric vehicle stocks. Money Flows Out of Fossil Fuels and Into Clean Energy I believe that the cause of the current rise in stock prices is largely...
10 for 20 full year

Ten Clean Energy Stocks for 2021: The List

by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA An annual tradition, here is my Ten Clean Energy Stocks for 2021, which is also the new model portfolio for the year, with equal dollar values of each stock using closing prices on 12/29/2020.    Returning Stocks Mix Telematics (MIXT) Green Plains Partners (GPP) Covanta Holding (CVA) Red Electrica (REE.MC, RDEIF, RDEIY) Valeo, SA (FR.PA, VLEEF, VLEEY) Veolia (VIE.PA, VEOEF, VEOEY) New Stocks Scorpio Bulkers, Inc. (SALT) - Dry bulk shipper converting to offshore wind construction.  Thanks to Thad Curtz for bringing my attention to this one. Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners (BEP) - A leading clean energy Yieldco...
10 CES annual returns

Early Thoughts On 10 Clean Energy Stocks for 2021

by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA In the past, I've allowed readers to pay for early access to the list of the 10 stocks I will pick for the model portfolio the next year.  This year, early access to the top 10 list will be a perk for all my patrons on Patreon, who get a first peak at drafts of all my articles.  I posted a draft of this article on December 18th. It's going to be hard to pick 10 stocks that I think are good values this year, but it's past time to start thinking about it.  I thought...
perf chart

10 Clean Energy Stocks for 2020: Rose Colored Covid

by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA The stock market took off in November, fueled by very positive covid-19 vaccine news, and possibly also the prospect of a little competence and sanity in the White House.  While both of these are unambiguously positive for the economy, I think investors are seeing the future through rose colored glasses. Rose colored covid-19. What a Biden Victory Means for the Economy A Biden victory is good news in that we will finally have someone in the White House who will work to reduce the infection rate in the pandemic, rather than vacillating between wishful thinking and actively spurring...
new portfolio

10 Clean Energy Stocks for 2020: Updated Model Portfolio

by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA After a couple down market days, all the limit orders I listed on Monday have executed. Here is the current portfolio: Position Shares Position Shares CVA 135 CIG 587 CVA Mar21 $7.50 Put -2 RDEIF 100 VLEEF 57 VEOEF 75 GPP 276 EBAY Jan ‘21 $8 Put -1 NFYEF 98 Cash $4415 MIXT 274   Coming Up: Third quarter earnings season is starting… I plan to write short notes on earnings as they come out for my Patreon supporters, which will be compiled into longer articles on AltEnergyStocks.com a few days later. Also, I’m doing a talk on how to divest from fossil fuels with the founder of divestor.org this coming Monday at 8:30 pm ET for the Climate and Health subgroup of Citizens Climate Lobby ...
10 clean energy stocks vs benchmarks

10 Clean Energy Stocks for 2020: Spooked in October, but Trading Anyway

by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA Two of the cash covered puts in the 10 Clean Energy Stocks for 2020 model portfolio have now expired, and I am left with a difficult decision as to what to replace them with. As I discussed last month, I feel the market is overvalued given the economic impact of the pandemic and little prospect of fiscal stimulus before January.  Yes, the market is not the whole economy, and large tech firms and high income workers and the wealthy are doing great while people on the bottom half of the income ladder are being crushed.  With...
10 for 20 Aug vs benchmarks

10 Clean Energy Stocks for 2020: The Waiting

by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA Despite high valuations, a rampaging pandemic, and the end of the $600 weekly supplemental unemployment payments from the CARES Act, the stock market continued upward in August. Like most ordinary people in this economy, my Ten Clean Energy Stocks model portfolio is still not feeling the recovery the way the big tech companies and the ultra wealthy are, although my real-money Green Global Equity Income Portfolio (GGEIP)  is now hitting new highs for the year.   The difference between the model portfolio’s performance and GGEIP is mostly a result of trading: It had a large cash position at...
total returns

10 Clean Energy Stocks for 2020: July Update on Valeo MiX, and NFI

A secular shift in the transportation paradigm? by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA I'm continually surprised at the strength and length of the stock market recovery in the face of a worsening pandemic in the US. The stock market may not be the economy, but it's not totally divorced from the economy either.  Perhaps the Senate's unwillingness to even talk about another aid package and the subsequent failure to pass one until after the benefits in the initial CARES act expire will trigger the market reversal I've been expecting at least since late April.  Or it won't.  I have a long track record...

10 Clean Energy Stocks for 2020: June Update

by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA The coronavirus pandemic no longer has the United States by its financial center throat, the New York City area, but is instead is now gnawing ravenously at its arms and legs.  In June, the stock market seems to be just starting to get a clue that this is also a bad thing, leading to a month of volatility and general consolidation. Europe, in a display of relative competence, has been much more effective than the US at getting the pandemic beast under control, and so investors looking for safe havens might do well to look there. ...

10 Clean Energy Stocks for 2020: Updates on GPP, HASI, CVA

by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA Market Decline Last week I warned "The risks in today's stock market outweigh the possibility of future potential gains."  Looks like we're seeing those risks manifest in short order.  The last couple days' decline have me looking at a few stocks to start adding to my positions again, especially MiX Telematics (MIXT) discussed on June 2nd and Green Plain Partners (GPP), discussed below. Note that this pullback could easily be very early days of a much larger market decline.  We might even see the market fall far enough to test the March lows... any of my buying...
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