Battery Investing for Beginners, Part II
John PetersenLast Friday I published "Battery Investing for Beginners" as an introductory piece for investors who don't know much about the energy storage sector but are interested in learning more because of the hugely successful initial public offering by A123 Systems (AONE). Since the article was well received and there seems to be a good deal of reader interest, I've decided to continue the theme with a series of articles where I'll try to build a contextual framework for the industry and show where various types of energy storage devices and their manufacturers fit into that framework. Since I...
Energy Storage: Q3 2012 Winners and Losers
John Petersen I usually write a quarterly recap to summarize what happened in the energy storage and vehicle electrification sectors, but Q2 was a tough enough period that I don't see much sense in dwelling on the bloodletting. So instead of focusing on the past, I'll offer a quick summary table with lots of red ink and turn my attention to Q3, which is shaping up as a time of bright opportunity for some companies and profound risk for others. I expect three companies in my tracking group to perform very well in Q3 –...
DOE Reports That Lithium-ion Batteries Are Not Ready for Prime Time
by John Petersen Last month the DOE released its 2008 Annual Progress Report for the Energy Storage Research and Development Vehicle Technologies Program. This report is a frank and relatively upbeat assessment of the current status of Li-ion battery research and development that also provides a stark wake-up call for investors in energy storage stocks. The reality check has been done and the DOE’s verdict is clear: Lithium-ion batteries are not ready for prime time. In its description of ongoing research efforts to develop high-power batteries for HEVs, the DOE said: “High-power energy storage devices...
NY Working Hard to Catch Up with CA’s Energy Storage Requirements
Bill Radvak Battery storage is gaining more and more traction in the distributed energy resources community. Last fall, California passed the first statewide energy storage directive in the United States. Issued by the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC), the mandate requires all investor-owned utilities in the state including Southern California Edison, Pacific Gas & Electric and San Diego Gas & Electric, to jointly purchase “1325 megawatts of energy storage” by 2020. “The proposed targets increase between 30% and 55% every two years, creating economic incentives for multiple players with various technologies to enter the market reports Energy...
Axion Power – A Battery Manufacturer Charging Forward
John Petersen Last week Debra Fiakas of Crystal Equity Research published an article titled "No Battery Producer Left Behind" that was based on old information about the relationship between Exide Technologies (XIDE) and Axion Power International (AXPW) and reached several erroneous conclusions. Since I'm a former Axion director, the stock is my biggest holding and I follow the company like a hawk, Tom Konrad asked me to clarify the record and present a high level overview of Axion's business history, stock market dynamics and technical accomplishments over the last four years. Since Tom's request is a...
Are Advanced Battery Technologies’ Financial Statements Accurate?
Eiad Asbahi, CFA In this article, I’m going to analyze Advanced Battery Technologies, Inc. (ABAT) and provide evidence that the company is inflating its financial statements. This article summarizes key points that we have put together in a longer report available here (.pdf). An alternative copy for backup purposes is available here. A video summary of the findings, along with discussions with certain customers, are available at the following links: ABAT Analysis Video 1 of 2 ABAT Analysis Video 2 of 2 ABAT Customer Interview 1 ABAT Customer Interview 2 (Video 1 of 2)...
Largest Airport in Mexico Selects Active Power for Backup Power Solution
Active Power Inc (ACPW) announced that the largest airport in Mexico, Aeropuerto Internacional de la Ciudad de Mexico (AICM), has selected its battery-free CleanSource® UPS to protect runway and taxiway lighting. Additionally, a new terminal that will begin construction this year will also be supported by Active Power's battery-free systems. Deliveries against this order started in Q4 of 2005 and will continue through the first half of 2006. Active Power is following a good business model of selling into a niche that it already has a good presence in (FuelCell Energy has a similar practice with Hotels.)...
Lithium-ion Battery Stocks: Investment Opportunities or Subsidized Laggards?
John Petersen I'm often critical of public lithium-ion battery manufacturers based on objective investment metrics including their financial condition, their results of operations, their potential markets and the fundamental soundness of their business plans, but I don't usually drill down into thornier issues like technical merit and business execution because those questions are out of my depth and in the words of Harry Callahan, "A man's got to know his limitations." Every once in a while, however, organizations that are competent to evaluate those issues publish analytical reports that can help investors cut through the hype...
How The Micro-hybrid Revolution Will Radically Change The Battery Market
John Petersen In late October I gave a keynote presentation at Batteries 2012, one of the largest lithium-ion battery conferences in the world. During the conference, I was buttonholed for a couple hours by the chairman's global strategy team for one of the top three lithium-ion battery manufacturers in the world. They started by explaining that their Global 100 company is abandoning the plug-in vehicle market to focus on sensible applications where it can earn a reasonable margin. Then they started drilling down with a series of detailed and probing questions about whether any of the principal lead-acid...
Why Energy Storage Investors Must Understand Resource Constraints
John Petersen This Saturday marks the second anniversary of my blog, which began with an article titled Lithium-ion Batteries and Centerfolds. Over time my archive has grown to 142 articles on energy storage devices, the companies that make them and their crucial role as enabling technologies for wind and solar power, transportation and the smart grid. While cleantech bloggers usually focus on new technologies that might be game-changers, I'd rather focus on major enhancements to proven technologies from established industry leaders. The reason is simple, hot new technologies have limited investment value if the world can't produce enough...
Magnetek to Purchase Eighty, 5kW VRB Energy Storage Systems for Telecoms Market Applications
VRB Power Systems (VRB.V) announced that Magnetek's Telecom Power Systems Group (TPS) has entered into a Letter of Intent to purchase eighty 5kW VRB Energy Storage Systems to be sold to telecom market operators in the U.S. VRB Power will supply the core-technology for the VRB-ESS units, which will generally include the overall design, cell stacks, electrolyte, tanks and the balance of the battery system, whereas TPS will be responsible for supplying the electronics, including the rectifier and controller, and assembling and integrating the components into finished VRB-ESS units. TPS will market and sell these VRB-ESS units to...
A123’s Elegant Financing Transaction
John Petersen On Friday A123 Systems (AONE) announced a direct registered offering that's an elegant example of a well-structured financing transaction in a difficult market. A123 had a solid financial base before the offering and the stock was starting to turn a critical corner into an upward trend. The new financing should add momentum to that trend. The first stage deal terms are pretty straightforward. The investors will buy units consisting of one share of common stock and one common stock purchase warrant for $2.034 per unit, a 10% discount from the closing price of A123's common...
GE and EnerDel: Obvious Bedfellows
by Debra Fiakas CFA In April 2015, General Electric (GE: NYSE) won a contract to supply Con Edison Development with an 8-megawatt-hour battery storage system at a solar project in California. The system will incorporate GE’s Mark IVe control system and Brilliance MW inverters. However, instead of GE’s Durathon sodium-ion batteries, GE will be outsourcing or acquiring lithium-ion batteries for the project. Where will GE source the lithium-ion batteries for the Con Edison Development project? So far, spokespersons have been non-committal on the name. GE has had a number of...
A123 Keeps Powering Forward on its IPO
John Petersen A123 Systems filed another amendment to the registration statement for its proposed IPO on August 19th. With this amendment, A123 is much clearer on its anticipated Federal funding than it was in earlier filings. In addition to discussing the recent DOE announcement that they'll receive $249.1 million in ARRA battery manufacturing grants, they've reduced their estimate of the ATVM guaranteed loans that they'll be eligible for from $1 billion in their July filing to $235 million in the current filing. This most recent number is specific enough to indicate that it reflects ongoing negotiations rather than...
Graphite Developers Eye Large Growing Market
The post “Integrated Graphene Producers” featured several graphene producers with novel business models that marry captive graphite sources to the technology and knowhow to produce graphene. These are not the only graphite producers. Although not as elegant as graphene with its svelte single-atom profile, the market for graphite has its appeal as well. Graphite has been a staple in steel industry crucibles, foundry molds and automobile brake linings. These days graphite has moved into another even more important place in cars - lithium ion batteries that make electric vehicles viable as replacements for gas guzzling cars and trucks.
Spherical graphite is especially desirable because the graphite anodes hold...
Maxwell’s 54% Q2 Growth: An Outlier, Not A Trend
Tom Konrad CFA When I wrote about Maxwell Technologies’(NASD:MXWL) earnings restatement earlier this month, I predicted that third quarter (Q3) earnings would be much worse than recent trends were leading investors to believe. I expected the stock would decline as analysts revised their expectations to reflect Maxwell’s weak short term prospects, allowing me to exit my short position, which I still hold. Sure enough, analysts have reduced their earnings expectations. Analyst consensus earnings expectations for Q3 have reversed from 13 cents to a 10 cent loss, while expectations for 2013 have plunged from 46 cents to 6 cents....
