Understanding Implementation Timelines for Energy Storage Applications
John Petersen I've been writing this blog on pure-play energy storage companies for a little over two years. Initially I focused on broad themes like the importance of price and performance and the fact that every industry must master the baby steps before it can try to run. Over time the analysis got increasingly granular as I focused on individual applications instead of the industry as a whole. While I occasionally revisit basic themes like I did in last fall's Battery Investing for Beginners series, I worry that overly technical discussions of applications are not as useful for...
Battery Investing for Beginners, Part II
John PetersenLast Friday I published "Battery Investing for Beginners" as an introductory piece for investors who don't know much about the energy storage sector but are interested in learning more because of the hugely successful initial public offering by A123 Systems (AONE). Since the article was well received and there seems to be a good deal of reader interest, I've decided to continue the theme with a series of articles where I'll try to build a contextual framework for the industry and show where various types of energy storage devices and their manufacturers fit into that framework. Since I...
A123’s Planned IPO Moves to the Front Burner
John Petersen After six months of regulatory silence and $100 million in new funding, A123 Systems amended the SEC registration statement for its proposed IPO on June 23rd. While this latest filing may simply be A123's way demonstrating its ability to raise matching funds for a scaled back ATVM loan request of $1 billion and pending applications for $438 million in direct Federal grants, my sense is that the proposed IPO will probably come to market in early September. Since ATVM loans will require 20% cost sharing and direct Federal grants will require 50% cost...
First Quarter Earnings Omens and Bright Spots in Energy Storage
John Petersen The first quarter earning season is usually boring because it follows 45 days after year-end earnings reports and significant changes are the exception, rather than the rule. This year, the energy storage sector has been a clear exception and every company I track, other than the amazing gravity defying Tesla Motors, is down from its March 31st close. The following table summarizes the performance of the stocks I track from June 30th of last year and March 31st of this year through yesterday's close. While some of the declines can be attributed to...
Hydrogen Fuel Is Not Dead
John Lounsbury With the furor over the potential for hybrid, plug-in hybrid and all-electric cars recently, one might think the hydrogen car was dead. Nothing could be further from the truth. Feasibility at an affordable price appears to be established and market availability of hydrogen powered cars may come sooner than you think. Many issues remain to be addressed and this article will try to cover them. The problems to be overcome are not insurmountable, but are also not trivial. These problems include the economics of hydrogen production, transportation, distribution and...
Congratulating A123 Systems On Its Very Successful IPO
John Petersen This morning Reuters is reporting that A123 Systems, Inc. (AONE) increased the number of shares offered in its IPO from 25 million to 28.1 million and sold those shares at a price of $13.50. If the underwriters exercise their overallotment option, which is usually the case in IPOs of this size, the total IPO proceeds will be $437.5 million before costs, commissions and discounts. This IPO has been a long time coming but it was worth the wait. I want to congratulate the A123 team and the underwriters on a job well done. Assuming full...
Lithium Technology Dominates Large Energy Storage Projects
by Debra Fiakas, CFA
Market share for lithium technology has been extended by another 22 megawatts with the selection of lithium-based batteries by Duke Energy (DUK: NYSE) for three separate of power facilities operated by Duke Energy Florida. Duke did not specify the source of the lithium-based batteries, but the company seems to have an affinity for Tesla’s (TSLA: Nasdaq) battery products. Last year Duke Energy with its partner University of South Florida chose Tesla’s lithium-based batteries for a 100-kilowatt solar project in St. Petersburg, Florida.
Application of lithium-based technology in a relatively small, microgrid application like that in St. Petersburg is no surprise. Lithium-based batteries offer high energy...
What Do Investors Get With BioSolar?
by Debra Fiakas, CFA
Last week management of energy storage developer BioSolar, Inc. (BSRC: OTC/PK) provided an update on the company lithium-ion battery design. The company’s engineers along with a manufacturing partner are still making changes to the design called the 21700 cell. Additionally, the company recently decided to take greater control over raw materials supply, potentially sourcing and processing materials in the U.S.
Engineers at BioSolar have been trying to increase the storage capacity of lithium-ion batteries by improving the anode component. The plan is to sell 'super anodes' to battery manufacturers to make existing lithium-ion batteries work like super batteries. Prototypes were tested in July...
Exide’s Recent Price Collapse Was Unjustified
John Petersen After the market closed on Monday, Exide Technologies (XIDE) released surprisingly poor second quarter results, a $3.6 million loss that included a $5.7 million charge for several years of reporting irregularities at a small Portuguese recycling subsidiary. The market's reaction was absolutely savage as the stock collapsed from Monday's close of $4.48 to Friday's close of $3.01. In my view, the reaction was unjustified and has set up a tremendous buying opportunity for investors who are willing to look beyond the headlines and focus on core business fundamentals. To put things in perspective, Exide's...
Cost-effective Energy Storage is the Orphan Stepchild of Alternative Energy
In connection with this week’s launch of their new “What Matters” website McKinsey & Company published a pair of essays that should be of particular interest to alternative energy investors. The first essay, “Electron-Democracy,” describes the coming smart grid as a system that will be built outward from a core of centralized power plants, but increasingly be supported and stabilized by incremental energy flows between small producers and consumers that can respond nimbly to market demand with lower capital costs and more robust protection against disruption. Putting the pieces together, the authors suggest that: “. . ....
PHEVs and EVs; Plugging Into a Lump of Coal
John Petersen Since I've stirred up a hornet's nest over the last two weeks first by debunking the mythology that PHEVs and EVs will save their owners money and then by showing how PHEVs and EVs will sabotage America's drive for energy independence, I figured I might as well go for the triple-crown of harsh realities by showing readers that in the U.S., where 70% of electricity comes from burning hydrocarbons, PHEVs and EVs won't make a dent in CO2 emissions. They'll just take distributed CO2 emissions off the roads and centralize them in coal and gas...
Arotech’s Batteries and Power Systems Division to Develop Zinc-Air Batteries for UAVs for Major...
Arotech Corporation (ARTX) announced that its Batteries and Power Systems Division has received a second development contract from a major US agency. Under the contract, Arotech's Electric Fuel Battery Corporation subsidiary will develop prototype zinc-air batteries for small unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to achieve extended flight times. The funding is expected to cover development costs.
Making Hydrogen From Ethanol
by Debra Fiakas CFA Cars powered by fuel cells or batteries are only as clean as the electricity used to produce the power source. Proponents of hydrogen fuel cells argue that fuel cells have an edge over batteries, because hydrogen can ultimately be made cleaner with innovations in hydrogen production. Steam reforming of natural gas is the most common source of hydrogen and for the most part it is still the most cost-effective process for large-scale production of hydrogen. Since ethanol is a renewable resource, the steam reforming of ethanol has been proposed by some as...
Lithium-ion Battery Stocks: Investment Opportunities or Subsidized Laggards?
John Petersen I'm often critical of public lithium-ion battery manufacturers based on objective investment metrics including their financial condition, their results of operations, their potential markets and the fundamental soundness of their business plans, but I don't usually drill down into thornier issues like technical merit and business execution because those questions are out of my depth and in the words of Harry Callahan, "A man's got to know his limitations." Every once in a while, however, organizations that are competent to evaluate those issues publish analytical reports that can help investors cut through the hype...
Energy Storage Performed Poorly in the First Quarter of 2010
John Petersen The first quarter was unkind to publicly traded companies in the energy storage sector, which saw their stock prices fall by an average of 16.22% over the last three months. While the shares of Enersys (ENS) and C&D Technologies (CHP) posted gains of 12.8% and 3.2% respectively, all of the others in my universe of 17 pure play energy storage companies traded down. The following table summarizes first quarter performance and provides some important valuation metrics. The following table summarizes the portfolio performance a hypothetical investor would have realized over the last three...
Electric Vehicle and Lithium-ion Battery Investing For Imbeciles
John Petersen In their 1969 bestseller "The Peter Principle" Laurence Peter and Raymond Hull quoted a Latin-American student named Caesare Innocente who lamented, "Professor Peter, I'm afraid that what I want to know is not answered by all my studying. I don't know whether the world is run by smart men who are, how you Americans say, putting us on, or by imbeciles who really mean it." After watching the events of the last few weeks, I think most of my regular readers would agree that the imbeciles are clearly steering the ship. Last March I went...
