Too Much Solar Could Be Good for Inverter Companies
2009 is likely to be a watershed year for the solar photovoltaic (PV) industry, and one which many PV manufacturers will not survive. Even before the credit crunch and plummeting housing market made capital intensive PV much harder to finance, the easing of supply constraints in the market for solar grade silicon meant that PV supply was liable to increase rapidly, putting pressure on marginal producers. I expect that the loss of PV demand due to tighter credit markets will more than compensate for the added demand due to the extension of the solar Investment Tax Credit (ITC) and...
Trina Drives Consolidation As Solar Trade War Flares Up
Doug Young As if the solar trade war between the US and China wasn’t bad enough, tensions just got worse with a preliminary ruling in Washington aimed at closing a loophole to a previous ruling imposing anti-dumping tariffs on Chinese solar panels. I’ll admit I was a bit surprised by the preliminary ruling just announced by the US International Trade Commission (ITC), as I’d previously predicted this latest action in the Sino-US solar trade dispute would quickly fizzle. Meantime, industry consolidation is continuing in China, where more than half the world’s solar panels are currently made, with word that...
First Solar’s New Mexico Project: The Parity and the Pain
James Montgomery Unusually public details about a newly signed solar project deal in New Mexico raise some interesting questions about the purchasing power of solar energy, how close it's getting to grid parity and just how much pressure is on upstream suppliers to fulfill that objective. First Solar (FSLR) has acquired a 50-megawatt (MW) solar power project in New Mexico from the solar division of Element Power. The deal is billed as the state's largest solar project; it also, according to some unusually public information revealed in a regulatory filing, raises some interesting questions...
Brilliant Light Power – Commercialization Status
by Daryl Roberts
A potentially paradigm-shifting technology has been under development at an R&D firm in NJ called Brilliant Light Power. For people monitoring the situation, the question currently is about the status of commercialization. It is not a publicly held firm, but is in mid-stages of private equity capitalization in the range of $100-120M.
I recently read a book titled "Randall Mills and the Search for Hydrino Energy", offering a detailed and compelling history of the development of this novel renewable energy technology, authored by an insider, an intern who stayed on to work there for several years (published in...
Finding the Key to CIGS PV Reliability
by Joseph McCabe, PE This past week there was a photovoltaic (PV) workshop that probably wasn't on your radar. It was held at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and is called the PV Module Reliability Workshop (PVMRW). This is where the nerds of the PV industry get together to discuss the factors that influence how long a PV module will last and other factors which might influence the long-term performance of a PV system. It wasn't on your radar because it is not something that influences big business. Or is it? If you track the PV industry...
How Weather Risk Transfer Can Help Wind & Solar Development
by Daryl Roberts
The Need To Accelerate Renewables Adoption
Renewables are growing rapidly as a percentage of new electric generation, but are still being assimilated too slowly and still constitute too small of a fraction of total generation, to be able to transition quickly enough to scale into a low carbon economy in time to mitigate climate change.
The issue of providing public support, with subsidies and other reallocation methods, is a politically charged subject. High carbon advocates, for example American Petroleum Institute, argues that support for renewables distorts the market. On the other hand, it has been argued, for example by...
Solar Stocks As the Best Play On The Cleantech Revolution? (Part I)
I just got around to reading a new report by Merrill Lynch (link at the end of this article) identifying cleantech as "The Sixth Revolution" (the other five being: Industrial Revolution; Age of Steam & Railways; Age of Steel, Electricity and Heavy Engineering; Age of Oil, the Automobile and Mass Production; and Age of Info and Telecommunications). Periodically, sell-side firms will release free cleantech/alt energy reports, which lay out their macro theses but stop short of providing stock picks to non-clients. I don't generally pay these reports too much attention as I find they rarely - if ever...
Yingli’s Hopes For Government Rescue
Doug Young Bottom line: Yingli looks set to receive a government bailout from Beijing. Beijing is telling one of the nation’s biggest policy lenders to provide money for struggling solar panel maker Yingli (NYSE: YGE) before it defaults on a bond payment due next month. Last week Yingli said it was in desperate negotiations with 2 groups of creditors, including one holding 1.4 billion yuan ($220 million) worth of bonds set to mature next month. (previous post) The other group is owed another 1 billion yuan related to an Yingli bond that came due last year,...
First Solar And Trina: Dueling Ratings
by Debra Fiakas CFA Solar module producer First Solar, Inc. (FSLR: Nasdaq) received a boost last week from a new rating upgrade from Hold to Buy. There are at least fifteen sets of analytical eyes scrutinizing First Solar. The prevailing view on First Solar had been ‘hold’ or ‘neutral’ with a median price target of $70.00, representing a 13% return potential from the current price level. Solar power generation has on a roll in recent years as lower solar cell prices have helped find demand at higher volumes. The U.S. Solar Energy Industries Association...
Solar Parking Developer Envision Solar Now Public (OTCBB:EVSI)
Tom Konrad, CFA One of the best things about Solar Photovoltaics (PV) is that they can be installed close to load but need not take up open space. Now public company Envision specializes on solar shading for parking lots that not only produces power, but also shade where it's needed most. I lived in Tucson, Arizona for two years in the early 2000s. Like everyone who lives in the desert Southwest for any length of time, I became very aware of what would happen if I left my car in an open parking lot for more than...
Ascent Solar: Grounded
By Brandon Qureshi Recently, Ascent Solar Technologies (ASTI: Nasdaq) , a publicly traded solar power company, received an additional $5.0 million from institutional investor Ironridge Technology, thereby completing a $10 million Series B Preferred Stock investment. AST, based in Thornton, Colorado, has emerged as a leader in the development of flexible, thin, high-performance solar panels. In order to examine AST within an industrial context, a profile of the solar power industry is necessary: According to sources such as Time and E&E Publishing, the industry has experienced record levels of popularity in the United States in the last...
The Solar Trade Wars: Which Side Are You On?
Marc Gunther Should we worry about Chinese government subsidies to its solar industry? Or send the Chinese a thank-you note? A group of seven US-based manufacturers of solar panels is alarmed. These manufacturers, led by Solar World (SRWRF.PK), a German firm with a plant in Oregon, filed a complaint with the United States International Trade Commission, which reached a preliminary conclusion in December that US companies were, in fact, being harmed by subsidized imports. If the Commerce Department goes on to find that Chinese firms have been dumping solar panels on the US market at prices below their costs,...
Solar Eclipse
Debra Fiakas The chip makers dominate discussion of the solar energy sector. Nonetheless, a passing comment in a recent blog post introduced me to an interesting company that seems to have been over looked in the solar story - Apollo Solar Energy, Inc. (ASOE: OTC/BB). Apollo produces tellurium, a little known chemical element that looks deceptively like tin. It is typically a by-product of copper and lead mining operations, but can be found hiding beside gold as well. While these are very common metals, tellurium is quite rare on earth. Outer space is another story. Although...
Principal Solar’s “Unique Roll-Up Strategy”
Tom Konrad CFA Last week, the announcement that Principal Solar, Inc. was now available for public trading landed in my inbox. It's currently trading under the symbol PSWWD.PK but will transition to PSWW.PK on June 23rd. I went ahead and used the latter in our Solar Stocks list. The press release was remarkable only for the lack of hard facts about the company, focusing instead on the bright future of the solar industry. But experienced investors know that an industry can have a bright future while the individual stocks tank. A rising tide need not lift all...
SolarCity: Fanning the Flames
by Debra Fiakas CFA Solar power installer Solar City (SCTY: Nasdaq) has attracted a swarm of shareholder lawsuits in recent weeks. The stock is trading at a price level 44% below its 52-week high of $88.35 set in February 2014. That has to be disheartening for those who were on the wrong side of the trades at those lofty levels. In February when traders were bidding $88 and change for SCTY, the stock was trading at about 50 times revenue and 47 times cash flow from operations. Of course, since the company had yet to produce...
Solar: More Downside Risk Before Buying Opportunity Emerges
by Clean Energy Intel In the past month since we recommended taking profits on our Tier One Chinese Solar trade, the sector has been hit heavily – largely driven by margin erosion and a generally less than encouraging earnings season. The key question from here is whether or not we are once again at prices which offer a buying opportunity. The answer is probably not quite yet. Source: Barchart The chart above shows the percentage change in three Chinese tier one solar stocks plus the solar ETF TAN in the period since...
