Metrics for Thin Film Solar CIGS Company Comparisons
Joseph McCabe Many people ask me, “which CIGS company is going to emerge as winner in the race towards high efficiency thin film PV’s? To provide an enlightened perspective to the question, some historical perspectives are needed. First Solar (FSLR) has helped the Thin Film PV Industry by proving that respectable solar to electric area efficiencies can be achieved in a low cost manufacturing processes, with respectable performance over time. First Solar’s technology is cadmium telluride (CdTe) on glass. Previously, amorphous silicon was the thin film leader, with the highest commercially available thin film area efficiencies; currently they...
Price Pressure Will Squeeze Solar Inverter Revenues
James Montgomery SMA Solar inverter photo by Claus Ableiter In a new report, IHS says worldwide solar inverter unit shipments will rise 7 percent this year, but PV inverter revenues are heading the opposite way, a 9 percent decline this year to $6.4 billion, worse than the firm's earlier prediction of a 5 percent drop. (2014 will see a 9 percent rebound in revenues back to around $7.0 billion, while shipments will surge 19 percent to more than 41 GW.) That's because overall inverter prices are sinking fast, sliding to...
It’s Time to Buy SolarCity
By Jeff Siegel Well, it was a record-breaking day for Texas last week. On March 26, at 8:48 p.m., nearly 30% of the Lone Star State's electricity was generated by wind. Most came from West Texas, and there wasn't a single issue regarding integration. Despite the common refrain of “the grid can't handle all this intermittent power,” Texans had no problem turning on the lights with all those extra wind-powered electrons. Of course, for those of you who rely on actual data instead of empty rhetoric, this should come as no surprise. In fact, a new study just...
Solar Trade Case Analysis and Implications
by Paula Mints
In terms of the current trade petition and the USITC decision, government interference will not correct an imbalance that is embedded in the industry (globally) particularly when it is put in place by a body that does not understand the nuances of the problem. Despite evidence to the contrary, attorneys and consultants for Suniva/SolarWorld seem to have convinced the USITC that cell manufacturing in the US can be resuscitated and that tariffs and quotas the mechanism that will stimulate manufacturing. In reality, this situation is stimulating uncertainty and doing harm.
Table 1: Tariff Recommendations
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Four Green Money Managers’ Top Stock Picks
Green money managers' stock picks after the Japanese nuclear crisis. Even as the nuclear disaster in Japan unfolds, it's clear that the world's energy industry will be forever changed. Russian reactors were never considered safe, but a Japanese to have a nuclear meltdown is an entirely different story. Market Reaction Since Monday, nuclear stocks and ETFs have been plummeting. As of Wednesday night, The Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF (NYSE:NLR), the iShares S&P Global Nuclear Energy Index (NASD:NUCL), PowerShares Global Nuclear Energy Portfolio ETF (NYSE:PKN), and the Global X Uranium ETF (NYSE:URA) are down...
Suntech Gets Set to Tackle Debt
Doug Young Struggling solar cell maker Suntech (NYSE: STP) has just issued a euphemistically upbeat plan on how it intends to "solidify market leadership," as it tries to return to health amid a prolonged industry downturn that has seen prices plunge more than 70 percent over the last 2 years. But investors are clearly focused on the last part of the plan, specifically discussing how the company intends to deal with nearly $600 million in convertible bonds that will come due in March next year. The process of renegotiating that debt is likely to be a long one,...
When Will Solar Microinverters Reach Commercial Scale?
Microinverters are being used in smaller commercial solar installations, but the industry is in flux and coming regulations may drastically change the playing field.
The Solar Industry’s Supply Chain Problems
by Paula Mints
The solar industry has a supply chain problem – no, not just the current polysilicon and glass constraints. Solar wafer, ingot, cell, and module manufacturing are concentrated in China and South East Asia, leaving buyers outside these areas vulnerable to supply chain shocks.
Countries in this region have lower labor costs, lower energy costs, and higher incentives and subsidies for manufacturers. In China, manufacturing is supported (and controlled) by the central government.
Manufacturers in China, who have expanded into South East Asia, can make do with lower
margins than their counterparts in other countries. Manufacturers in South East Asia and China...
Departure Of First Solar CEO Rob Gilette Another Sign Of Solar’s Troubles
Clean Energy Intel First Solar's Blythe Solar Farm under construction First Solar's (FSLR) stock price was hit hard yesterday, falling some 25%, as a result of the departure of CEO Rob Gilette. The stock has bounced today. However, the very volatile price action is simply a sign of the extreme nervousness and underlying weakness in the sector. A number or readers have questioned my stance of being uninvested in the solar sector during the recent Solyndra-related market turmoil. Since I see solar as being a significant part of the long-term clean energy solution, this does raise some contradictions. Consequently, let...
Five Pioneers Mining the Sun for Income
by Jared Wiedmeyer For the past few years, solar industry stakeholders have imagined a future where the general public has the ability to invest in pure-play renewable energy real estate investment trusts (REITs) that finance and construct both utility-scale and distributed photovoltaic (PV) projects in the United States. While these stakeholders wait for this reality to come to fruition, existing REITs already have several options to own or develop solar projects that still allow them to comply with the IRS's asset and income tests. This past May, Chadbourne & Park's Kelly Kogan and Scott Bank moderated a roundtable with...
Why SunPower (SPWR) is a Solid Bet on Solar
By Jeff Siegel I've been singing the praises of SolarCity (NASDAQ: SCTY) since the company first went public. Even as renewable energy bears attacked anything with the word "solar" in the name, I stuck to my guns. And I'm glad I did. Here's a quick look at how SCTY has performed since its debut: Of course, at this point, SCTY is an easy ride. Even if the company's next earnings disappoint, the long view remains solid. So when the company delayed earnings this week, I didn't lose any sleep. The fact is, those who took...
The Solar Bears are Wrong
Dana Blankenhorn There are a growing number of “solar bears” out there like Jim Chanos, a professional short-seller who is convinced China is poised for a 2008-style crash and who is also selling short stocks like First Solar (FSLR) and Vestas Wind (VWDRY.PK). (What does Chanos like? Would you believe Citibank?) (Picture from Wikipedia.) Personally, I don't know whether Chanos is right about those stocks or not. First Solar is a popular short because it's the best-performing U.S. solar play. Fly high and the assumption is you'll fall fast. But two big mistakes are being made here: ...
Sunset for Suntech as China Solar Target Rises
Doug Young Sunset for Suntech. Photo by Tom Konrad More good news is coming for the rebounding solar sector with word that Beijing is accelerating its build-up of solar power plants in a bid to help the industry and also improve China’s dismal air quality. But that news is coming too late for rapidly disappearing sector pioneer Suntech (NYSE: STP), which has just announced it has formally launched a liquidation process that will end its life as an independent company. Suntech’s downbeat news isn’t really unexpected, and comes amid...
SolarCity: Fanning the Flames
by Debra Fiakas CFA Solar power installer Solar City (SCTY: Nasdaq) has attracted a swarm of shareholder lawsuits in recent weeks. The stock is trading at a price level 44% below its 52-week high of $88.35 set in February 2014. That has to be disheartening for those who were on the wrong side of the trades at those lofty levels. In February when traders were bidding $88 and change for SCTY, the stock was trading at about 50 times revenue and 47 times cash flow from operations. Of course, since the company had yet to produce...
Is The Largest Solar Manufacturer a Bargain?
by Debra Fiakas CFA In the previous post on Canadian Solar (CSIQ: Nasdaq) I suggested a multiple of 10 times the consensus estimate for earnings in 2014 might be a compelling value for the solar module producer. Putting a value on is competitor Yingli Green Energy Holding (YGE: NYSE) is not so easy given the string of losses reported by Yingli. The usual price to earnings multiple cannot be used to value a company swimming in red ink. That leaves the multiple of price to sales. Yingli trades at 0.5 times sales compared to the one-to-one multiple...
Residential Solar in the Ontario microFIT Project: Three Families’ Experiences
Michael Smele Solar Home with sunflower photo via Bigstock The Ontario microFIT program was launched in 2009 as part of Ontario’s provincial government’s efforts to increase the production of renewable energy. The program provides participants with the opportunity to develop a “micro” renewable electricity generation project on their privately owned property that uses solar photovoltaic (PV), wind, waterpower, or bioenergy (biogas, biomass, landfill gas). I have asked three families who navigated the process of microFIT solar installations to share their experience by answering some questions. ...
