Solar Investing: Where Politics & Finance Come Together
Most solar sector watchers will remember the second half of May 2008, when the solar world collective held its breath awaiting to find out what German policy-makers were going to decide about solar subsidies in that country. All this commotion was caused by the fact that Germany, despite lacking favorable physical conditions in the form of ample sunshine, had become the world's largest solar market on the back of a very aggressive incentive program. Germany alone is in fact so critical to sales growth in the solar sector that the mere announcement of a review of the subsidy caused...
From Solar 2009: Removing The $2,000 ITC Cap
Charles MorandLike Tom, I attended part of the Solar 2009 conference last week. One of the most interesting presentations I heard was by Andy Black, CEO of OnGrid Solar, on the potential impact on residential solar installations of removing the $2,000 ITC limit (link to the actual paper). Prior to changes in October 2008, ITC tax credits for rooftop solar PV installations were capped at $2,000. In the author's own words: This paper presents revised and expanded financial analyses of residential cases . It will look at Internal Rate of Return (IRR) only (for simplicity of...
Unprofitable Tesla Begins Dismantling Unprofitable SolarCity
by Paula Mints
In June, Tesla (TSLA) announced it would shut down some of its solar installation stores, end its agreement to sell solar systems through Home Depot and either lay off or reassign affected workers. Tesla indicated that this was part of its overall plan, that is, business as usual.
Comment: In 2016, Elon Musk, oops, Tesla adopted, oops, acquired, SolarCity from his cousins, oops, SolarCity shareholders for $2.6-million, oops, $2.6 billion, ramming the deal down skeptical shareholder’s throats, oops, making an economically rational case for the deal. A shareholder lawsuit is working its way through the courts. SolarCity, the pioneer...
Solar Shift in New Financing for Candian Solar, Trina
Doug Young Bottom line: New financing deals for Canadian Solar and Trina reflect the growing role of solar panel makers as power plant builders, and could provide some stability to the sector by providing a more reliable stream of new projects. Two big new financing deals are shining a spotlight on a major shift taking place in the solar panel sector, with manufacturers increasingly moving into the field of solar farm development. The shift is seeing solar panel makers become their own best customers, buying up panels for use in solar farms that they build themselves. The...
China Struggles To Meet Solar Targets
Doug Young Bottom line: China is likely to fall well short of its plan for 35 gigawatts of solar power capacity by the end of next year due to profit-seeking speculation and lack of experience among plant builders and operators. I’ve been quite skeptical for a while about China’s ambitious plans to rapidly build up its solar power capacity, arguing that many of the plants being built are more designed to please central planners in Beijing than of real practical use. Now it seems at least one researcher at a major government institute agrees with that view,...
Why Do Green Energy Experts Buy Solar Stocks?
Tom Konrad CFA Green energy experts accept that solar panels are one of the least cost effective ways to reduce your carbon footprint. Nevertheless, many buy solar stocks. They should rethink their investment strategies. I recently spoke on "Stock Selection in the Era of Peak Oil and Climate Change" at the ASPO 2009 International Peak Oil Conference. Whenever green energy enthusiasts find out that I analyze green energy stocks professionally, they react in one of two ways. Many want to know my top stock pick in general (New Flyer Industries NFI-UN.TO/NFYIF.PK) or in their favorite sector (see below.) ...
How the Don Quixote Principle Drives Solar
by Paula Mints Don Quixote by Honore Daumier via Wikimedia Commons For decades the photovoltaic industry has been driven by its beliefs, hopes, the availability of incentives, and what it is willing to ignore in terms of market realities and technological barriers. The apparent achievement of grid parity, even at drastically low margins, was hailed a victory. Continued deployment of multi-megawatt installations in the face of low margins for developers and likely gigawatts of poor quality installations has been regarded as proof of the inevitability of the industry’s success. ...
RGS Energy: Troubling Inconsistencies
Garvin Jabusch About three weeks ago, I posted a piece called "RGS Energy, Tempered, Opportunistic Growth," an optimistic bit of coverage on one of our holdings, (RGSE), that included an 18-month price target of $10.00 per share. Since then, several developments and pieces of information have come to light that have caused us to revise our assessment of the company. Thursday, July 3, a quiet half-market day, RGS Energy released a statement announcing plans to monetize its previously filed potential shelf offering; "RGS Energy (NASDAQ: RGSE) has entered into a definitive agreement to raise approximately $7.0 million in a...
The Cadmium Telluride Solar Factory Race
by Joseph McCabe, PE Solar manufacturers are racing to build the next cadmium telluride (CdTe) photovoltaic (PV) factory in the United States. Three major CdTe on glass factories in the US have been recently announced each with a unique starting point. Abound Solar has won a US DOE loan to support a new 640 MW/yr facility in Tipton, Indiana. General Electric (GE) recently announced buying Primestar. They indicate that they will be building the largest PV manufacturing facility in the world. Finally First Solar has announced a 250 MW/yr facility to be built in Mesa City Arizona near...
Solar Inverter Shakeout: 3 Survivors, 2 Buyers, a Loser and a Wildcard
Tom Konrad CFA Inverter for a solar array. (Photo credit: Wikipedia) Solar inverter stocks are looking cheap, but until the weaker players are forced out, they are likely to get cheaper. The major publicly traded solar inverter companies are Power-One (NASD:PWER), Satcon (NASD:SATC), SMA Solar (OTC:SMTGF), Siemens (NYSE:SI), Advanced Energy Industries (NASD:AEIS), Schneider Electric (OTC:SBGSF) and upstart Enphase Energy (NASD:ENPH). Over the last year the industry has faced eroding margins and an increasingly competitive environment. This parallels the problems of solar manufacturers: the industry has too much...
Walmart vs Tesla
by Paula Mints
Walmart takes on Tesla Solar for Poor Quality Installations and Components
Early in August, after several quarters of slowing sales, Tesla (TSLA) announced a restart of its residential solar lease, referring to it as solar system rentals.
Around the same timeframe, Tesla stated that it had no timeline for the availability of its solar tiles.
On August 20, Walmart (WMT) filed a breach of contract lawsuit against Tesla/SolarCity in the commercial division of the New York State Supreme court claiming “years of gross neglect” leading to several fires at its facilities. According to court documents, one fire took place after...
Two Mega-Deals Illustrate China’s Massive Solar Building Plans
Doug Young A couple of year-end announcements from solar majors Trina (NYSE: TSL) and ReneSola (NYSE: SOL) are pointing to a coming flood of new orders for the entire solar panel sector next year, fueled by huge new demand from their home China market. I fully expect we’ll see a steady stream of similar announcements throughout next year and even into 2015, providing a flow of good news for rebounding solar stocks after a 3-year sector downturn. But amid the bright news, potential downside lurks in the risk that payments...
What Shouldn’t Be in a Green Energy Portfolio
The London Accord took a look at what portfolio theory would suggest as the most effective ways to address Climate Change. Knowing which technologies don't make the cut is at least as useful as knowing which technologies do. Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA I recently looked at a paper from the London Accord which used portfolio theory to recommend the best mixes of technologies to deliver different levels of carbon abatement. The most useful technologies to achieve the needed levels of carbon abatement were Forestry, Hydropower, Biofuels, Wind, Efficiency, and Geothermal. I suggested stocks that investors might consider to invest in...
Schizophrenic Signals Surround Sino Solar Stocks Yingli, ReneSola And Jinko
Doug Young Bottom line: YIngli’s debt restructuring plan and ReneSola’s early debt repurchase will bring some confidence to solar shares, but pessimism will quickly return as their situations deteriorate without major signals of new government support. Shares of Yingli (NYSE: YGE) and ReneSola (NYSE: SOL) have taken investors on a wild ride these last few weeks, reflecting the alternating hopes and fears gripping 2 of the shakiest companies in a solar sector crippled by a downturn now entering its fourth year. If I were a betting man, I would say the chances are better than 80 percent...
China, EU Solar Talks Less Cloudy
Doug Young After a disastrous round of talks last month that broke down almost as soon as they began, China and Europe look set to try again with a new round of negotiations to resolve their dispute over the EU’s claims of unfair state-support for Chinese solar panel makers. Much has changed since the failed round of talks in late May, including a growing number of individual European leaders who want to resolve this dispute through negotiations rather than trade wars. As a result, this new round of negotiations will take place between top-level government officials, an important...
Crowded Playground of Solar Panel Makers
The last post discussed the proposition of solar panel manufacturer SunPower Corporation (SPWR: Nasdaq). The company is looking for a partner to help build out and operate SunPower’s production facility in Hillsboro, Oregon. SunPower plans to manufacturer its innovative P-Series panels in Hillsboro to fulfill U.S. orders.
The Hillsboro plant was acquired in early 2018, from SolarWorld AG after the Trump administration slapped 30% tariffs on solar panels imported to the U.S. Domestic production, even at higher local costs, could make sense when compared to such prohibitive import tariffs.
SunPower is widely regarded as the go-to source for the highest quality solar cells available with efficiency ratings as...
