Vulnerable Solar Markets and What Makes Them Tick
by Paula Mints
All industries and the companies that populate them are vulnerable to macro and micro economic shocks, substitutes, changing tastes and other economic, political and social events.
The global solar industry is vulnerable for all-of-the-above reasons and as it is incentive, subsidy and mandate driven while trying to unseat the conventional energy status quo, it is particularly vulnerable. The solar landscape remains low margin and requires government intervention of some type to thrive.
It is correct to say that the global solar remains primarily policy driven, but this statement does not go descriptively far enough. Many deny that solar deployment still requires incentives, mandates and/or subsidies...
Right About Tesla, Wrong About Yingli
Doug Young Bottom line: Beijing should promote cutting-edge companies like Tesla that can help advance its new energy agenda, while abandoning ones like Yingli that use old technology to make cheap copycat products. Two green energy stories were in the headlines last week, spotlighting China’s drive to become a global leader in the new technology and also the right and wrong ways to achieve that aim. An item involving US electric vehicle (EV) powerhouse Tesla (Nasdaq: TSLA) represented the right approach, with reports that the company might near a deal with Beijing to build a manufacturing plant in China....
Sunpower’s Tariff Exemption: When You Win, You Lose
SunPower gets an exemption for its interdigitated back contact (IBC) solar cells – did it win the battle and lose the war?
by Paula Mints
If SunPower (SPWR) was playing a game of chicken with the Trump Administration to give it an edge towards the goal of getting an exemption, it a) won its gamble and can now focus on manufacturing p-type monocrystalline cells and modules to compliment imports of its n-type IBC cells and modules, b) won its gamble and now must keep its word and invest in resuscitating the long-in-the-tooth SolarWorld US manufacturing facility, or, c) won its gamble...
Principal Solar’s “Unique Roll-Up Strategy”
Tom Konrad CFA Last week, the announcement that Principal Solar, Inc. was now available for public trading landed in my inbox. It's currently trading under the symbol PSWWD.PK but will transition to PSWW.PK on June 23rd. I went ahead and used the latter in our Solar Stocks list. The press release was remarkable only for the lack of hard facts about the company, focusing instead on the bright future of the solar industry. But experienced investors know that an industry can have a bright future while the individual stocks tank. A rising tide need not lift all...
SunPower and SolarWorld: Strange Bedfellows
by Paula Mints
Oh, what a tangled web you weave when vying for an exclusion from tariffs via strategic ac-quisition. In April, SunPower (SPWR) announced it had acquired (subject to regulatory approval) So-larWorld US, subsidiary of the company that kicked off the solar tariff dispute with a petition in 2012, focused on China as the dumper of cells and modules. SolarWorld GmbH, based in Germany, could not file the petition. It needed its US subsidiary to do so. As SolarWorld US is, currently, the only crystalline cell manufacturer in the US, it takes on a value beyond the sum of...
Rapidly Growing Alternative Energy Companies
The last post highlighted several companies in the alternative energy, conservation and environment technology fields that have delivered exceptional price performance over the last year. Prospects for growth in sales or earnings appeared to be key drivers of the price movement. It makes sense to seek indicators of growth as cues for those companies that may become tomorrow’s price movers.
Crystal Equity Research’s novel alternative energy indices were a good place to go on a ‘quest for growth.’
Beach Boys Index - Biodiesel
The two analysts who publish estimates for Renewable Energy Group (REGI: Nasdaq)apparently expect a surge in growth in the current year followed by a leveling...
China’s Solar Power Inc Eyes $300 Mln NY IPO
Doug Young Bottom line: New York IPO plans by a Canadian Solar unit and Solar Power Inc could auger a new wave of similar listings by Chinese new energy power plant builders, offering investors a higher growth alternative to traditional utilities. Just a day after solar panel maker Canadian Solar (Nasdaq: CSIQ) announced it has spun off its fast-growing solar power plant-building unit for a US listing, another China-based peer is discussing plans for a similar IPO. This time a company called Solar Power Inc is the one disclosing plans for a New York listing to raise...
China Levies Tariffs on US and South Korean Polysilicon
James Montgomery The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has formally decided to levy antidumping duties on imported solar-grade polysilicon from U.S. and Korean suppliers, turning up the heat yet again in the broader trade disputes simmering between several key markets for solar energy. The antidumping tariffs, which are said to be effective starting July 24, range from 54-57 percent targeting nine U.S. suppliers and from 2-49 percent for 11 South Korean suppliers. (Here's a roughly Googlized translation of the China MOC announcement.) Here's how the antidumping tariffs lay out: Not included in these polysilicon tariffs is any mention of European...
Hopping On The Short Enphase Bandwagon
On July 25th, Prescience Point Capital Management recently released a report accusing Enphase energy Inc. (ENPH) of earnings manipulation. Prescience is an investment manager with a reputation for strong short-side analysis. I was intrigued, and decided to investigate Prescience's claims for two reasons:
I am generally concerned about overall market conditions, so adding a short position to my portfolio is attractive in the current market environment.
As an analyst who specializes in clean energy stocks, I have suspected that Enphase would not survive much longer because I believe that its core technology is no longer the best solution for...
Solar Trends in 2014 and Beyond
Benefits, Barriers, and Chances Paula Mints Time is the primary difference between a fad and a trend. Fads are fleeting. Trends develop over time altering behavior in some relatively permanent fashion. The adverb relatively is used as permanence has become, over time, far less permanent. Fads ebb and flow more quickly than trends. The best way to tell the difference, unfortunately, is in hindsight. For example, the European feed-in tariff (FIT) model is responsible for jump starting the utility scale (or multi-megawatt) application for solar technologies. The initial highly profitable FITs attracted investors who, forever in pursuit...
Community Solar Providers In PSEG Territory
See the Buyer's Guide to New York Community Solar for details on how New York community solar works and lists for other utility territories.
PRICING STRUCTURE
ADDITIONAL COMMENTS
SPECIAL OFFERS
HarvestPower Solar
Subscription model with a discount from utility rate
Estimated 15-30% savings with no out-of-pocket expenses
SUNation
Short-term and long-term contracts to pay a fixed rate below the utility rate
Estimate 15% savings
Italian Courts Seize GSF Solar Plants Complicating Suntech Bankruptcy
Doug Young Asset seizure casts new clouds over Suntech retrench Someone should write a book about solar panel superstar Suntech (NYSE: STP), whose the incredible rise and spectacular fall has taken yet another intriguing twist with word that some of its major assets have been seized by a court in Italy. The Italian angle is just the latest turn in this international story of a company founded by an Australian-educated Chinese engineer, which once look set to revolutionize the solar energy sector, only to be forced into bankruptcy when...
Beijing Bails Out Yingli, Shareholders Not So Much
Bottom line: Yingli’s new bank loan will be followed by a major restructuring that will force big losses on bond and shareholders, while a new asset-backed bond program to help the broader panel sector raise money will meet with tepid reception. China is throwing a couple of lifelines to its struggling solar panel sector, including a relatively large rescue package for Yingli (NYSE: YGE), the player in the most precarious position. That package will see a consortium of banks, led by the policy-driven China Development Bank, provide Yingli with 2 billion yuan ($300 million) in funds as the company...
Reports of Price Increases and Better Margins Boost Solar Stocks
Doug Young Solar panel makers are finally seeing signs that the clouds could be lifting from their embattled sector, sparking a stock rally for their volatile shares. Canadian Solar (Nasdaq: CSIQ) led off the upbeat news, releasing preliminary results that included better-than-expected first-quarter sales and margins. But perhaps more importantly, other reports said the industry is seeing some of its first sustained price increases after more than 2 years of declines. Those 2 pieces of good news ignited a rally for solar shares, led by Canadian Solar whose stock rose more than 12 percent to a...
Evergreen Solar (NASD: ESLR): Ready to Turn Around?
Evergreen Solar has been in a trading range ($8 to $18) for about two years. Now it's trading again at the bottom of the range, and with the general market downturn, along with the anticipated wave of new polysilicon supply a lot of investors will be wondering: Is Evergreen about to turn around as it has so many times in the past, or is it going down from here? Over the past couple years, I have been very successful at trading the stock, but not because of some special insight. When a stock has so many analysts following it...
Five Pioneers Mining the Sun for Income
by Jared Wiedmeyer For the past few years, solar industry stakeholders have imagined a future where the general public has the ability to invest in pure-play renewable energy real estate investment trusts (REITs) that finance and construct both utility-scale and distributed photovoltaic (PV) projects in the United States. While these stakeholders wait for this reality to come to fruition, existing REITs already have several options to own or develop solar projects that still allow them to comply with the IRS's asset and income tests. This past May, Chadbourne & Park's Kelly Kogan and Scott Bank moderated a roundtable with...
