Automotive Batteries, Short-term Revenue Growth Favors Lead-acid By 6 To 1
Last week, an article in Green Car Congress summarized a market forecast that Dr. Menahem Anderman presented at this month's Advanced Automotive Battery Conference in Long Beach, California. In his presentation, Dr. Anderman evaluated the market for HEVs in 2011, projected a $1,230 million market for automotive NiMH batteries, and projected a $320 million market for automotive Li-ion batteries. The following graph comes from Green Car Congress, is based on data from Dr. Anderman's AABC presentation, and shows both unit sales and market value of the Li-ion batteries that will be used in HEVs by 2011 (click on the...
A123’s Sale Moves Ahead
Doug Young A123 Systems battery cell products (Source: A123) After a stormy 2012 that saw growing trade friction between China and the US, I'm happy to see that 2013 is getting off to a better start with Washington's approval of a potentially sensitive sale of a bankruptcy US technology firm to a Chinese buyer. Many readers will know that I'm talking about the case of A123 Systems (AONEQ), a former high-flying US battery maker that fell on hard times as new energy industries worldwide experienced a broader...
An Elephant Hunter’s Thesis for Axion Power
John Petersen Last Friday I breathed a sigh of relief as my core position in Axion Power International (AXPW.OB) regained the price level it established in the first quarter of 2010. The last 12 months have been a stockholder's worst nightmare as supply and demand dynamics pushed Axion's stock price down into the $0.50 range and kept it there. Since it looks like new buyers have finally eaten their way through the excess supply, now seems like an opportune time to unwrap my crystal ball and lay out an elephant hunter's thesis for Axion's stock price outlook over...
Battery Investing For Beginners
John Petersen I've been blogging about the energy storage sector since last July because batteries, single purpose devices that most of us take for granted unless they need to be recharged or replaced, are an essential enabling technology for cleantech, the sixth industrial revolution. With this week's impressive launch of A123 Systems (AONE), the tsunami of investor interest I've been predicting since last fall has finally arrived. Since the A123 Systems IPO has introduced an entirely new class of investors to the energy storage sector, this seems like a particularly good time to go back to square...
Earnings Season Surprises In Energy Storage
John Petersen Now that the earnings season is almost over, a review of surprises in the storage sector seems appropriate. Before digging into performance surprises, however, I want to share a surprising excerpt from "Reinventing Capitalism: How to jumpstart what the marketplace can’t," an interview with Bill Gates that served as the closing presentation at this month's Techonomy 2010 Conference. While I commend the entire video for those who have 50 minutes to spare, I was particularly intrigued by Mr. Gates response to a question about whether we could reasonably hold out hope that Moore's Law class gains...
Why Advanced Lithium Ion Batteries Won’t Be Recycled
John Petersen One of the most pervasive and enduring myths in the energy storage sector is that a robust recycling infrastructure for used lithium-ion batteries will be built before the wonder-batteries that are being manufactured today for the first generation of plug-in vehicles reach the end of their useful lives. In the worst case scenario, advocates suggest used lithium-ion batteries will be stockpiled until there are enough used batteries to justify the build-out of recycling infrastructure. The numbers tell a very different story. For several years the single minded obsession of all lithium-ion battery developers...
Vanadium Flow Battery Companies
The recent post “Lithium Technology Dominates Large Energy Storage Projects” featured companies offering utility-scale lithium battery systems. Industry research firm Navigant estimates that lithium-ion technology accounts for almost 30% of non-pumped storage capacity developed since 2011. This might be due in part to the dramatic decreases in cost for lithium ion batteries. A study completed by Bloomberg New Energy Finance found that the ‘levelized’ cost of energy for lithium ion batteries has fallen by 76% to $187 per megawatt hour in the first quarter 2019 from $800/MWh in 2012.
Is the story over for utility-scale storage? Should investors look for lithium ion battery manufacturers and forget...
Toyota Tests And Rejects Lithium-ion Batteries For The Prius
John Petersen Over the last couple of years, the mainstream media has been awash in reports of how automakers are lining up to build fleets of PHEVs and EVs using lithium-ion batteries as a principal power source. I've consistently argued that investing in objectively expensive lithium-ion battery company shares on the basis of testing decisions was dangerous. The reason for my caution is simple, a decision to test a new concept is very different from a decision to commercialize a proven concept and failures in the preliminary testing stages are far more common than successes. In...
Cobasys to Provide Battery Systems for Saturn VUE Green Line Hybrid SUV
Cobasys announced today that they will provide their advanced NiMHax® Nickel Metal Hydride (NiMH) battery systems for GM's 2007 Saturn VUE Green Line SUV which will be made available to consumers in the summer of 2006. Cobasys is a joint venture partnership between Energy Conversion Devices Inc (ENER) and Chevron Technology Ventures LLC, a subsidiary of Chevron Corporation (CVX) ENER gapped up this morning on this news and has been trading nicely for the last couple of months. However, it has run into upside resistance at the 52 week high. The stock is...
It’s Time to Kill the Electric Car, Drive a Stake Through its Heart and...
John Petersen I was recently invited to prepare a memorandum on the battery industry for the electric mobility working group of the World Energy Council, a global thought leadership forum established in 1923 that includes 93 national committees representing over 3,000 member organizations including governments, businesses and research institutions. Since my memorandum integrated several themes from this blog and tied them all together, I've decided to publish a lightly edited version for readers. To set the stage for the substantive discussion that follows, I’ll start with an 1883 quote from Thomas Edison: “The storage battery is one...
Why I Don’t Expect A Lithium-Ion Battery Glut
John Petersen It's no secret that I think plug-in electric vehicles are unconscionable waste and pollution masquerading as conservation. To support my opinions, I've published an easy to follow Excel spreadsheet that shows why plug-ins are 5x to 6x less effective than HEVs when it comes to reducing national gasoline consumption and 9x to 12x less effective than HEVs when it comes to reducing national CO2 emissions. To date, the only challenges to my analysis have come from die-hard EV fanatics who seem to believe battery factories grow on trees and raw material supply chains sprout like flowers...
Energy Storage: Q4 2012 Winners and Losers
John Petersen In late June I wrote a forward looking article that identified several companies in my energy storage and vehicle electrification group that I expected to perform well or perform poorly during the third quarter. Since short-term market changes are notoriously hard to predict, it’s worthwhile to look back and see where I got things right and where I got them wrong. So I’ll start today with a quick summary table and assess the relative accuracy of my Q3 calls, and then turn my attention to Q4, which is shaping up as a time of bright opportunity...
SatCon to Provide Grid-Tied Inverters for Energy Storage System
SatCon Technology Corporation (SATC) announced that it was chosen to supply its grid-tied Starsine inverter for a ZBB Energy Corporation installation demonstrating the benefits of applying energy storage to existing transmission and distribution congestion problems. The project is one of only three selected by the California Energy Commission (CEC) and U.S. Department of Energy to showcase market-ready energy storage technologies as solutions to the growing problem of congestion on the state's power grid. The installation will be located at a PG&E substation. When completed, the system will improve transmission and distribution reliability and allow for the continued use of...
Lux Research Confirms that Cheap Will Beat Cool in Vehicle Electrification
John Petersen On March 30th, Lux Research released an update on the vehicle electrification market titled "Small Batteries, Big Sales: The Unlikely Winners in the Electric Vehicle Market" that predicts: E-bikes and micro-hybrids carry minimal storage, but compensate with high volume. E-bikes show strong unit sales, as they sustain a 157 GWh storage market totaling $24.3 billion in revenues in 2016. Micro-hybrids benefit from increasingly stringent emissions limits, supporting 41 GWh and $3.1 billion in storage sales. Hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) like Toyota's Prius grow steadily while PHEVs and EVs are at the mercy of external factors....
Will A123’s Batteries Make the Great Leap from Design Bench to Store Shelf?
by Debra Fiakas CFA In my last post Paper Power I outlined the attempt to develop a battery using carbon nanotubes and paper. The materials seemed a bit unbelievable and it sent me into the history books to look at the battery. In the mid-1700s Ben Franklin may have been the one who first coined the term battery to describe the capacitors had strung together for his experiments. We all know about the scientist, turned politician. What is less well known is that the ancients may have also attempted a battery-like instrument now called the “Baghdad Battery.” ...
Arotech Zinc-Air Battery Named One of the US Army’s ‘Great Inventions of the Year’
Arotech Corporation (ARTX) announced today that the BA-8180 Zinc Air battery developed by Arotech's Battery and Power Systems Division - has been designated as one of the "Greatest Army Inventions" of the past year. The ten winning teams will be recognized June 23 by the U.S. Army Research, Development and Engineering Command. Arotech is primarily a defense contractor. However, they are a lead contractor for the Military looking at Alternative Energy resources.
