Unlike my Ten Speculations for 2008, my Solid Clean Energy Companies series will be much more difficult to benchmark. The intent of the series was to list some "stocks to buy when you think we’ve hit bottom." Since I obviously don’t know when you think we’ve hit bottom (My opinion: not yet), I don’t know what prices you’d have paid.
Instead, I’ll look at what would have happened if you bought only those stocks which dropped 10% since I wrote about them, and you bought them at the close that day, in equal dollar amounts. Here’s what happened (click on the company name for the original article.) Performance is as of the close on
|General Electric||Jan 31||$35.36||Mar 10 @ $31.70||-8%|
|Siemens||Jan 31||$130.05||Mar 17 @ $106.63||+9%|
|ABB Group||Jan 31||$25.02||Feb 15 @ $22.93||+31%|
|United Technologies||Feb 3||$74.05||Mar 10 @ $66.23||+4%|
|Quanta Services||Feb 7||$20.24||N/A|
|John Deere||Feb 10||$84.34||N/A|
|Sharp||Feb 12||$18.44||May 9 @ $16.71||-4%|
|Trinity Industries||Feb 17||$30.13||Mar 7 @ $27.19||+43%|
|Applied Materials||Feb 19||$18.48||N/A|
|General Cable||Feb 21||$62.12||Mar 7 @ $56.64||+19%|
|Greenbrier||Feb 21||$27.60||Mar 6 @ $24.74||-12%|
|Owens Corning||Feb 21||$18.75||Mar 10 @ $16.93||+41%|
|Waste Management||Feb 24||$34.25||N/A|
|National Grid||Feb 25||$76.39||Apr 23 @ $69.70||-2%|
|Johnson Controls||Mar 2||$33.42||N/A|
Overall, if you bought the 10 stocks which fell 10% since I wrote about them in equal amounts, you’d be looking at a 12% gain (not counting dividends) since then. You would have bought six out of the ten between Thursday, March 6 and Monday Mar 10, so I’ll use the close of business on Friday March 7 to benchmark this portfolio.
Using the same benchmarks that I used for the 10 speculations update, I note the Nasdaq Clean Edge Liquid Series QCLN is up 20%, and the S&P 500 is up 5% since then. These are generally large capitalization companies, many of which only have a small exposure to clean energy, so I feel the S&P is the better benchmark of the two. (I would, wouldn’t I?)
In any case, it’s much too early to tell how these ideas will perform. Most importantly, I don’t think we’ve yet hit bottom
on the market this year, so by the original criteria I gave, no one should have bought any of these yet. If you have, it does not look like you are crying about it. (Someone I know told me she had bought several because she had some money to invest, and has lost money so far. I felt bad about that. Timing can be everything.)
In terms of the particular companies, I don’t have a lot to say because I don’t watch large cap companies closely… this is the "fire and forget" part of my portfolio. That’s what’s nice about owning these companies… I don’t lose sleep over them.
DISCLOSURE: Tom Konrad and/or his clients have long positions in GE, SI, ABB, UTX, PHG, PWR, DE, SHCAY, TRN, AMAT, BGC, GBX, OC, HON, WMI, NGG, and JCI.
DISCLAIMER: The information and trades provided here are for informational purposes only and are not a solicitation to buy or sell any of these securities. Investing involves substantial risk and you should evaluate your own risk levels before you make any investment. Past results are not an indication of future performance. Please take the time to read the full disclaimer here.