Report: Two Solar Technologies That Will Thrive; Two On the Demise

Steve Leone Solar technology photo via BigStock For every revolutionary advance in solar, there are countless evolutionary dead-ends technologies that were well worth exploring, but ones that ultimately failed to live up to the mantra of "cut costs or die." These are the Solyndras of the world. Their science may have raised the bar, but ultimately they were judged by the market, which measures the bar on cost alone. From that perspective, it’s more like a limbo line “How low can you...

The Most Sustainable Solar Companies

Ed Gunther Trina Solar scores 94 to lead the 2012 SVTC photovoltaic (PV) solar sustainability survey. Making the SEIA Solar Commitment. The Silicon Valley Toxics Coalition (SVTC) released the 2012 SOLAR SCORECARD just in time for the SNEC 6th (2012) International Solar Industry and Photovoltaic Exhibition & Conference in Shanghai, China. Trina Solar Limited (NYSE:TSL) achieved the best result followed by SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ:SPWR) at 93, and CASM (Coalition for American Solar Manufacturing) protagonist SolarWorld AG (OTC:SRWRF) with 91. In SVTC’s own words: The Scorecard reveals how companies perform on...

Solar Gets Boring

Tom Konrad CFA Assurant, Inc. (NYSE:AIZ) is announcing  insurance for solar development projects today.   Are you bored yet? Insurance always puts me to sleep, but the solar industry has left a lot more investors crying into their pillows than nodding off into gentle slumber.  That’s what happens when a sector, on average, falls 73% in a year, as the Guggenhiem Solar ETF (NYSE:TAN) has.  And many investors in individual solar stocks are weeping harder, from even larger percentage losses. But that does not mean that the solar industry does not have a bright future, and...

Solar: More Downside Risk Before Buying Opportunity Emerges

by Clean Energy Intel In the past month since we recommended taking profits on our Tier One Chinese Solar trade, the sector has been hit heavily – largely driven by margin erosion and a generally less than encouraging earnings season. The key question from here is whether or not we are once again at prices which offer a buying opportunity. The answer is probably not quite yet. Source: Barchart The chart above shows the percentage change in three Chinese tier one solar stocks plus the solar ETF TAN in the period since...

More Pain Ahead for Solar Stocks

Tom Konrad CFA Clean Edge's Clean Energy Trends 2012 contains some disturbing predictions for solar stock investors. Clean Energy Trends 2012, the annual report from Clean Edge by Ron Pernick, Clint Wilder, and Trevor Winnie, was released today. On the surface, it seems like good news for the solar sector.  Although headlines in 2011 featured much bad press for Solar PV, the industry has not been "withering on the vine." Here are some key points in the report:   Combined global revenue for PV increased from $71.2 billion in 2010 to $91.6 billion...

Photovoltaics: 11 Trends to Watch in 2012

2011 Report Card plus my 2012 trends and predictions. by Edgar Gunther Contrary to my stated goal, the Photovoltaics: 8 Trends to Watch in 2011 review and 2012 photovoltaic (PV) trends and predictions post has once again extended well into February. As usual, I won’t be grading on a curve. Photovoltaic Market Demand Growth Last year, I said: In 2011, I predict at least 35% global PV installation demand growth despite Feed-in Tariff (FiT) headwinds in Germany, Italy, France, the UK, Ontario, and the Czech Republic. Grade: Pass To be...

Solar Stocks Double from Lows

L. Myron Clark A two-day surge on Feb. 8-9 took at least thirteen solar energy stocks more than twice their recent lows.  These names represent about half the publicly traded companies in the industry (on an unweighted basis).  The "two-bagger" stocks follow somewhat different patterns, as indicated in the two graphs below.  Several of them hit their 52-week lows in late September or early October 2011, close to the bottom in the broad market.  Those lows ranged from 80% (YGE) to 86% (JKS) below the respective 52-week highs.  The companies include: Jinkosolar Holding Co (JKS), ...

The Hard Truth About Solar

By Jeff Siegel Solar Competes With Natural Gas From 2005 to 2008, I made an absolute fortune in solar. And it was insanely easy, too. Hell, back then you could pretty much just pick any random company with the word “solar” attached to it, and watch your money double, triple, even quadruple. Yes, those were three great years. And I live very comfortably today because of those three years. But the solar market isn't what it used to be. Last year, solar stocks got slammed. And while most expect to see a recovery in the space this year,...

Sunny Day for Solar Stocks and the Shorts Come Off

L. Myron Clark Solar energy stocks took a huge jump today in U.S. trading.  While the sheen faded slightly as afternoon skies turned overcast in the eastern U.S., as of the NYSE closing bell about half the sector was up 20% or better.  Absent major industry news or earnings blowouts, short covering is the most plausible explanation for the sudden sharp rise.  Among the biggest winners were: Hanwha SolarOne Co. Ltd. ADS (HSOL)  +36.80% JA Solar Holdings Co. Ltd. ADS (JASO)  +34.72% JinkoSolar Holding Co. Ltd. ADS (JKS)  +31.86% ReneSola...

Tier One Chinese Solar To Continue To Outperform

by Clean Energy Intel TAN v STP, YGE and TSL Source: Barchart The chart above tells a particularly interesting story. Back in November of 2011, having been bearish on solar for some months, we argued that the market was finally beginning to see a process of rebalancing in the solar sector. A key component of this of course related to a number of announcements from Chinese solar players that they would bring a halt to new plans to expand capacity - at least until the end of 2012. This factor,...

The Solar Trade Wars: Which Side Are You On?

Marc Gunther Should we worry about Chinese government subsidies to its solar industry? Or send the Chinese a thank-you note? A group of seven US-based manufacturers of solar panels is alarmed. These manufacturers, led by Solar World (SRWRF.PK), a German firm with a plant in Oregon, filed a complaint with the United States International Trade Commission, which reached a preliminary conclusion in December that US companies were, in fact, being harmed by subsidized imports. If the Commerce Department goes on to find that Chinese firms have been dumping solar panels on the US market at prices below their costs,...

Report Suggests Solar at Grid Parity Tipping Point

by Clean Energy Intel A new academic study published last week suggests that solar energy has already reached grid parity in some areas in North America and is therefore poised to move into the mainstream. The study, 'A Review of Solar Photovoltaic Levelized Cost of Electricity', was co-authored by Joshua Pearce of Michigan Technological University and Kadra Branker and Michael Pathak of Queen´s University in Kingston, Ontario. It was published in Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. You can read an abstract of the study here. The study focuses on the assumptions behind many of the past studies of the...

Buffett-First Solar Deal Extremely Bullish For Solar Sector

by Clean Energy Intel Nellis Solar Power Plant in the US. Source: Wikimedia Commons The Solar Industry this week received significant support in the purchase by Warren Buffett-controlled MidAmerican Energy Holdings of First Solar's (FSLR) $2bn Topaz Solar Farm in San Luis Obispo County, California. This is a significant show of confidence in the industry from Mr Buffett. Of course, we do not know exactly what Warren Buffett´s utility holding company has paid for the solar project. However, the deal is unquestionably significant in size and scope. What we do know is...

US Solar: Blistering Demand v Expiry of 1603 Treasury Program

by Clean Energy Intel Despite the Solyndra affair and its aftermath in the political arena, the solar industry in the US continues to see a blistering rate of growth. At the same time, the end of year expiration of the 1603 Treasury Grant Program could have a negative affect on the financing environment for all renewables - including solar. Sources of Growth In The North American Solar Sector Source: NPD Solarbuzz North America PV Markets Quarterly report The latest survey-based data from Solarbuzz points to...

SolarCity Shows Private Sector Can Respond To Funding Gap Left By DOE

by Clean Energy Intel Solar City has today announced that it has obtained private sector financing for its SolarStrong Project to put solar on the rooftops of 120,000 military homes across the US over a five year period. Bank of America (BAC) has now agreed to provide the finance, though the project has been slightly downsized from it original target of 160,000 homes. This is very good news for the solar sector. SolarCity had of course been let down by the DOE, which in the immediate aftermath of the Solyndra affair had said that it could not complete SolarCity´s...

Asia-Pacific Demand To Help Sector Re-Balance

by Clean Energy Intel Asia Pacific Market Demand By Region Source:  NPD SolarBuzz: Asia Pacific Major PV Markets Quarterly New data published today by SolarBuzz in their Asia Pacific Major PV Markets Quartely points to a surge in new installations in both China and the Asia Pacific region as a whole. Indeed, the region seems likely to add a total of 2 GW of new installations in Q4 of this year. This is good news for the solar industry and could help bring supply and demand in...
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