Solar Module Prices: The Trend Is Down

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by Paula Mints

Buckle up, another module price war is afoot – or maybe it’s dumping or maybe it’s panicked selling or maybe it is the result of overcapacity and softening demand or maybe it is China’s government saying NO MORE to it’s out of control market and effectively stranding a whole lot of overcapacity or maybe it is all of the aforementioned. Pricing is always a complex subject.

The average price for modules from China is currently $0.60/Wp (and dropping) and the average price for smaller buyers is $0.66/Wp (and dropping). These are averages and there are prices for inventory as low as $0.33/Wp. There are non-inventory modules available in the $0.49/Wp to $0.60/Wp range. The current trend in module prices is down, pressured by strong production levels in China during the first half of 2016 and a slowdown of deployment.

Comment: Module prices will be tumbling potentially through the end of the year. Look out for quality issues. Manufacturers in China have overproduced and with the Chinese government looking to control deployment many are looking to rid inventory of overproduction.

Lesson: Anyone who things that prices will stay down, think again. Anyone who thinks that prices will tick up to consistent margin recovery level…think again. Module sales in the solar industry are historically an unpleasant competitive area in which to do business as many failed
companies would attest.

module price history 2006-16.png

Paula Mints is founder of SPV Market Research, a classic solar market research practice focused on gathering data through primary research and providing analyses of the global solar industry.  You can find her on Twitter @PaulaMints1 and read her blog here.

This article was originally published in the August 31st issue of  SolarFlare, a bimonthly executive report on the solar industry, and is republished with permission.

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