Ten Green Gambles for 2010: Q3 Update
Tom Konrad CFA To my surprise, the market came back in the 3rd Quarter, and my portfolio of put options designed to hedge a market decline is predictably down. However, my benchmark (a put against the Dow Jones Industrials has performed even worse than my picks.) I don't have a lot to say about the performance of my Ten Green Gambles for 2010 so far this year. These gambles were a bet on a market decline in 2010. Since we're now into the 4th quarter and the market is still...
Geothermal Stocks Overview
Tom Konrad CFA Geothermal power generation has several advantages over higher profile alternative energy such as wind and solar, but gets much less attention. Part of the lack of recognition for Geothermal power arises from a confusion with the technology variously called Geoexchange, Ground Source Heat Pump, or Geothermal Heat Pumps. Geoexchange uses the near constant temperature of the soil a few feet to a few hundred feet below the ground to heat and cool a building. According to the Environmental Protection Agency, Geoexchange is the most efficient way to heat and cool a building, and...
Battery Manufacturers, Burger Joints and Secret Sauce
John Petersen In September I received an e-mail from France Innovation Scientifique & Transfert SA advertising their new IP Overview of Lithium Metal Phosphate Batteries - 2010/04. While I don't usually pay attention to e-mail pitches for costly reports, the FIST solicitation caught my eye because the abstract explained that roughly 1,100 patent applications have been filed for lithium metal phosphate chemistry since Dr. Goodenough's key patent issued in 1996. It's enough to give a guy a whole new perspective on this T-shirt from EV World. It also raises a couple critical issues that many...
Finer System Level Details for the Comparison of Photovoltaic Technologies
by Joseph McCabe, PE In our last article "Metrics for Thin Film Solar CIGS Company Comparisons," we alluded to finer system level details in the comparison of photovoltaic (PV) technologies and promised this follow up article on the subject. System level details begin with the PV modules themselves. Band gap, temperature corrections and fill factor are just some of the finer technology details, all slightly related in that they can produce system performance differences when comparing similar PV technologies. Band gap is the quantum-level point where the PV technology absorbs photons. Think of the...
The Four Best Peak Oil Investments
Tom Konrad CFA The best four stocks I've found in my six month quest to find the best peak oil investments. I apologize for being a tease. Since March, I've been writing this series I've called "The Best Peak Oil Investments," but in many cases what I've actually done is to warn readers to stay away from particular sectors. This bait-and-switch was compounded for my syndicated readers at Seeking Alpha when their editors decided to re-title the early articles in this series "Peak Oil Investments I'm Putting My Money On." If you've stuck...
Interview: Jeff Siegel’s Predictions for Renewable Energy and Solar Stocks
by Garfield Hodgson Jeff Siegel, a top renewable energy investor recently took time out from his very busy schedule to grant an interview with Garfield Hodgson of Total Solar Energy (TSE). If you don't know Jeff, he runs the newsletter Green Chip Stocks, an independent investment research service that focuses primarily on renewable energy and organic & natural food markets. TSE: Hi Jeff. Thanks for your time. Can you tell me when you first got started in solar stocks? Jeff: I had actually been an advocate of solar energy ever since I did a high-school project...
Energy Storage, a Tough Year and a Mixed Quarter
John Petersen Quarterly updates are among my least favorite tasks because they focus on where the energy storage sector has been instead of where it's going. I still haven't developed a presentation format I like, but it feels like things are heading in the right direction. Reader comments and suggestions on how I can make these updates more useful are always appreciated. The 12-month performance for the energy storage sector was dismal and the only companies that currently trade above their September 30, 2009 closing prices are Active Power (ACPW) and Enersys (ENS). Most other companies in...
Ten Clean Energy Stocks for 2010: Third Quarter Update
Tom Konrad CFA I like to think that one of the things that distinguishes me from the mass of investment bloggers and newsletter writers is that I write about my mistakes, as well as my great calls. This is not just a service to readers, but a service to myself. Overconfidence and why I write about my mistakes One of the most pernicious cognitive errors common among stock market investors arises from our wish to see ourselves as great investors. One of the ways we accomplish that goal is to selectively and unconsciously self-edit our...
ELBC 2010 – Automakers Discuss Their Battery Requirements For Stop-Start Systems
John Petersen Last week I spent three days at the 11th European Lead Battery Conference in Istanbul where I learned that I've been far too conservative in earlier articles that discuss the likely impact of stop-start idle elimination systems on the battery sector. To put things in perspective, the 10th ELBC in 2008 had 500 participants and two papers on stop-start systems. The 11th ELBC in Istanbul had 700 participants and 15 papers on stop-start, including three from major automakers. The stop-start papers took a full day of the 2-1/2 day conference program. The high-level overview...
Cleantech Stimulus Still Not Stimulating
David Gold The stimulus bill along with the $31B cleantech element focused on grants and loan guarantees through the Department of Energy was passed into law over 18 months ago. About a year ago I wrote about how the cleantech stimulus was not very stimulating to our economy. I suggested at that time that the goals of stimulus and of long-term investment are largely incompatible, and the evidence is bearing that out. At the time, I felt like a bit of an outcast for having such a critical view and yet being an ardent supporter of clean technologies...
Will Rare Earths Cripple the Green Economy? Part 3
Eamon Keane This is Part Three of a three part series based on a rare earth elements (REE) review which is available for download at slideshare, where references can be viewed. Part 1 is an introduction to REEs. Part 2 analyzes REE consumption and refining and Part 3 looks at how REEs might affect the green economy. There have been several forecasts made for future demand. Approximate data was derived from Byron Capital Market’s own estimate and the data contained in Oakdene Hollins’ May 2010 report “Lanthanide Resources and Alternatives” for others . Figure...
Will Rare Earths Cripple the Green Economy? Part 2
Eamon Keane Rare Earths 2 Eamon Keane This is Part Two of a three part series based on a rare earth elements (REE) review which is available for download at slideshare, where references can be viewed. Part 1 is an introduction to REEs. Part 2 analyzes REE consumption and refining and Part 3 looks at how REEs might affect the green economy. So where do all those REEs go? Figure 8 shows the estimated flows for 2008 . Although Chinese consumption is shown as 60%, this is only for the...
Will Rare Earths Cripple the Green Economy? Part 1
Eamon Keane Rare Earth Elements Eamon Keane This is Part One of a three part series based on a rare earth elements (REE) review which is available for download at slideshare, where references can be viewed. Part 1 is an introduction to REEs. Part 2 analyzes REE consumption and refining and Part 3 looks at how REEs might affect the green economy. Rare earths captured the popular imagination a year or two ago. Since then a bonfire of reports, presentations and analyses have been published, with many generating more consulting fees...
Alice In EVland; Six Impossible Things
John Petersen Many of my regular readers know I'm a working securities lawyer, a humble scrivener who writes reams of deathless prose that private companies use to raise money from investors, and public companies file with the SEC in the form of registration and proxy statements, and annual, quarterly and current reports. I've spent a couple years as an oil company executive and a few more as board chairman of an advanced lead-acid battery technology developer. The balance of my 30-year career has been devoted to natural resource and technology-based businesses that needed somebody elses' money to pursue...
The Best Peak Oil Investments: Pure-Play Mass Transit Suppliers
Tom Konrad CFA I'm attempting to bring this series on peak oil stocks to a conclusion in which I can choose five stocks that should benefit from rising oil prices. One sector I feel should be represented is suppliers to mass transit companies, but I only looked at the percentage of revenues coming from mass transit and rail when I brought you my list of nine mass transit stocks. From that list, the following companies get substantially all their revenues from mass transit, passenger rail, or rail freight: New Flyer Industries (NFYIF.PK/NFI-UN.TO), is the largest manufacturer...
Kandi Technologies (KNDI) Stock Valuation
Part IV - KNDI's Stock Valuation Arthur Porcari. This is the last installment in a four-part series on Kandi Technologies (KNDI). Part I was an introduction, Part II took a look at Kandi's Business, and Part III looked at the company's financial condition. What’s With The Stock Price? KNDI, like most US traded China stocks is currently trading approximately 50% below its January high for the year, and 60% below its 2008 all time high. Unlike most, it's numbers are growing dramatically. Perhaps not too a-symptomatic when one considers how little Wall Street knows about this...