• Near-term growth could be helped by fiscal incentives, most notably the 30% Investment Tax Credit (ITC). Unlike a Production Tax Credit (PTC), an ITC does not require the existence of a tax liability and should lessen the industry's reliance on tax equity investors - there are far fewer of those kicking around these days 
• The possible enactment of a Federal renewable portfolio standard would provide a substantial long-term boost for the industry, and momentum is building in this direction
• New interstate transmission lines aimed at unlocking high-potential wind resources are being built or at the very least discussed 
• Investments in manufacturing capacity by OEMs remain on track, indicating that the industry sees the crisis as only temporary
• Regulated utilities - with the ability to finance wind projects on-balance sheet - are making a growing commitment to wind (recently exemplified by Berkshire Hathaway's MidAmerican Energy)

• Although credit conditions are normalizing, no one yet knows for certain what the future will look like, but many people agree that the financing environment will almost certainly remain challenging for a long time. Should inflation kick in as a result of fiscal and monetary incentives, interest rates could shoot right up in response, which would prove disastrous for any sector using large amounts of leverage
• The Federal RPS portion of the Waxman-Markey bill remains controversial and the bill will most certainly continue to undergo changes on its way to becoming law. Unless and until this happens - the bill becoming law with a Federal-level RPS in it - I am inclined to discount this entirely as a potential factor in future growth
• Transmission has certainly been on the agenda to a greater extent than at any other time in the past few decades, but we are still far - very far, in fact - from the investment levels required to truly unlock wind's potential in America. Governance systems around grid investments remain complex, with key areas of decision-making split between various actors whose incentives are not always aligned. I would venture to say that many people still see this as a major barrier to wind development, not as an enabler
• The latest run in wind stock has been very impressive, with the ETFs outperforming the S&P 500 by 25-30%. Last fall, their relative decline was equally formidable. As pointed out earlier this week by Tom, the magnitude of gains we've experienced over the past three months should probably be be viewed with some caution. I'm not sure whether we're headed for an imminent decline and, if so, how pronounced it will be (I'm a lousy market timer). But if we are, you can certainly expect wind stocks to fall further than the market as a whole. Any risk-averse investor should probably stay away at this point, or consider taking some profit   

Posted by Charles Morand at 10:24 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Last week, I added a little to my position in AAER (AAERF.PK). I first took a long position in AAER, the Canadian-based MW-size wind turbine maker, over two years ago. I've since pared down it significantly, both because I wanted to take some profit after a meteoric rise in share price in Q4 2007 and later because of the company's seeming inability to get orders for more than a couple of turbines at a time.

Although there was, before the credit crisis hit, a severe shortage of wind turbines and wind turbine components, barriers to entry have remained high: (1) average order size has been growing and scale is becoming more critical; and (2) quality considerations are top-of-mind for funders as defective machines can throw off project economics. Both factors play against small emerging turbine makers with no quality records to show for. Getting a first large order has thus been the key milestone investors in AAER have been waiting for.

Finally, last October, as global markets were in the eye of the storm, AAER reached an agreement with a mid-size Canadian independent power producer, Northland Power, for 61 1.65 MW turbines for a total order size of 100.65 MW. This contract is valued at approximately C$142 million (~$152 million or $~1.5 million/MW) by the company and is structured as a cost-plus agreement, meaning that AAER is guaranteed to recoup its costs and earn a profit on the deal. However, the agreement was only that - an agreement - with a formal contract to be signed when both parties met a number of conditions. After being pushed back twice, this moment came on May 9 when the turbine supply agreement was finalized and signed...sorta. The contract is subject to a "notice to proceed" by the developer contingent "on final permitting, approvals and financing [being] obtained by both parties."

This could mean that Northland is having difficulty securing financing on acceptable terms. It could also mean that Northland anticipates permitting delays - a previous project not too far from this one was delayed by two years because of permitting hold-ups - and doesn't want to commit before it's certain it can get the regulatory green light. It could also mean nothing - according to the contract Northland signed with Hydro-Quebec, the utility buying the power, the developer is not required to show proof that it has secured financing until June 2010, so Northland might want to wait for credit markets to ease out a bit. However, with a contractual deadline obligating Northland to start producing power by December 2010 (failing which the developer must pay a penalty of C$55 per MW per day up to a max of C$2.01 million), the order will have to be initiated soon if the turbines are to be delivered on time.  

In the clearest indication yet that the market's risk appetite is far from back, the stock finished the week down over 15%. While investors are not yet pricing a worst-case scenario, it is fair to say that they feel overall very skittish about the apparent blanket option for the buyer to delay the turbine order as long as it pleases.

Last Friday (May 15), a glimmer of hope appeared after markets closed: AAER increased the size of an upcoming best effort unit offering - one unit is made up of one common share and one common share purchase warrant - from a minimum of C$2 million and a max of C$5 million, to a min of C$3 million and a max of C$7.5 million. Although small in absolute terms, this is an appreciable relative increase in the size of the offering of 50% at both tails. The company's bankers, it seems, are seeing increased appetite for the stock.

I'm liking the contract and added a little to my position. My thesis behind this is two-fold: (1) if the notice to proceed is given within a reasonable time frame - and I believe that it could be - the share price could experience a nice pop, following which I would take a little profit; and (2) although this order falls well short of the plant's theoretical capacity of 400 turbines per year (AAER has only 6 other turbines currently scheduled for delivery in 2009), it might just be enough to keep the firm alive through the end of the worst part of the credit freeze and until US renewable power policies kick-start the sector. Management has taken many of the right steps over the past two years and, with a large order in hand, the firm would be well positioned to fill the order book.     

A Risky Bet

This is a risky play that essentially amounts to a bet on the Northland contract going through. If it doesn't and AAER fails to secure another large order in the next few months, I would be very worried and would pull my money. This is why:

Liquidity: 2009 promises to be a punishing year liquidity-wise, with $14.9 million in contractual obligations and $9.5 million in payables and debt payments due. Meanwhile, AAER has a cash ratio of only 0.19 with C$2.6 million in cash and equivalents. This will be partly counterbalanced by cash coming through from a 2009 order book of around 9.65 MW (something in the neighborhood of $15 million), the money raised through the current unit offering and an unused line of credit worth $1 million. The liquidity crunch exists because AAER is in the process of tooling up its factory, purchasing inventory and paying off licensing fees to the companies from which it is licensing its turbine technologies.

Limited financing options: The credit crisis has made equity financing incredibly expensive for small alt energy companies - they are often forced to raise equity at a fraction of the price investors were willing to pay a year-and-half or two years ago. AAER is a prime example: it raised equity in November 2007 at $1.15 per share but, a year later in December 2008, had to do the same at $0.15. Investors typically don't like dilution, and AAER won't be able to optimize its capital structure by raising significant debt until it shows it can fill the order book. Eventually, too much dilution leads investors to bail, creating yet more pressure on the stock price and raising the cost of equity capital further. As at December 31, 2008, AAER had 122.4 million shares outstanding, a 48% jump on 2007.  

The credit crisis: There is no doubt that the credit crisis has seriously shaken the renewable power sector. Perhaps ironically, the more mature technologies such as wind are amongst the hardest hit because of their relative capital intensity - the disappearance of tax equity investors coupled with the dearth of reasonably-priced debt has led to a marked slowdown in US wind installations. Many of the turbine majors have laid off employees in order to cut costs and reduce capacity. It will probably be a few more months before definite numbers to come out on the state of the industry so far in 2009, but if anecdotes one hears at conferences or reads in the paper are any indication, it ain't gonna be pretty! Needless to say, this is isn't exactly the best time to try to turn a start-up into an established firm in an already-crowded industry struggling to cut capacity. Luckily, this situation will be short-lived.

DISCLOSURE: Charles Morand is long AAER.

Posted by Charles Morand at 10:31 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Wind advocates like to say "The wind's always blowing somewhere" to counter concerns about the variability of wind power.  This is true, and it means that wind can always be relied on to produce some power, but that does not mean that wind can always meet demand.  In the United States' Great Plains wind belt, wind is typically anticorrelated with demand, meaning that, unless we can shift demand to times when the wind is strong, either through time of use rates or demand planning, overall energy production from wind will not be able to exceed 25-35% of overall demand without completely overwhelming the system when demand is low and the wind is strong.

However, even getting to 25% will be tricky without careful planning and a more robust transmission grid which will be capable of bringing wind power from where wind happens to be blowing (which could be hundreds of miles away in any direction) to where it is needed, or by investing in more expensive grid-based storage.

Potential for Low Variability

Lena Hansen and Bryan Palminter at the Rocky Mountain Institute, and Jonah Levine at CU Boulder have been doing some excellent work to show that portfolio theory can inform how to optimally combine a diversified portfolio of wind and solar sites to dramatically reduce the overall variability of a combined wind-solar portfolio. 

Source of Images: Spatial and Temporal Interactions of Solar and Wind Resources in the Next Generation Utility

This demonstration goes a long way towards alleviating concerns about any unreliability concerns for wind or solar, but answering that one question leads to another: Are we actually getting anything like an optimal wind/solar portfolio?

Overly Concentrated Portfolio

The answer to that question is unfortunately, "no."  Current incentives for wind, such as the production tax credit (PTC) and state Renewable Electricity Standards (RES) both reward energy produced, not the true economic value of energy produced.  The PTC is functionally a payment of 2.1 cents for each kWh of wind energy produced, while RES's require that a certain percentage of energy produced come from renewable sources.  An added complication is that many state RES include added incentives to produce renewable energy in-state, which reduces geographical diversity further.

This emphasis on total energy produced leads wind developers to "optimize capacity factor," according to Jim Himelic, and Associate Analyst at Xcel Energy (NYSE:XEL), the US's largest utility seller of wind energy.  Mr. Himelic spoke about Xcel's Wind Integration project to tackle the problem I recently called the "Dumb Grid:" the fact that grid operators do not use much weather forecasting information when trying to integrate wind onto the system.  This is not only from a lack of incentives and tools allowing utilities to integrate weather data, but also simply from a lack of good data.  Most wind farm operators currently have no incentive to provide even turbine-by-turbine production information to grid operators, data which would be valuable for forecasting of short term wind fluctuations.

According to Himelic, because most Colorado wind capacity is clustered in the Northeast of the state, and the above incentives along with constrained transmission means that new additions to wind capacity will also likely be in the Northeast, meaning that, at least in the short term, geographic diversity is likely to decrease rather than increase over time.  This both increases the overall variability of the wind resource, and will also increase the frequency and size of large wind ramp events, when power from wind turbines rises or falls extremely quickly over a very short period.  The worst such ramp events from a grid operator's perspective often come when wind speeds rise so far as to require the turbines to shut down to avoid damage.  This can cause a large number of turbines to go off-line at once, leading to a quick drop in overall power production.

Concentrating a majority of wind farms in a small area means that such wind over-speed events are likely to affect many farms at once, exacerbating the problem for grid operators.

A Gust of Hope

It's ironic that government incentives for renewable energy are adding truth to wind's only partially deserved reputation for unreliability.  Fortunately, recent changes in national policy may help to alleviate some of the pressure to cluster wind farms in small areas.  

First, wind developers now have the option to take a 30% Investment Tax Credit (ITC), comparable to the one available for solar, rather than PTC.  This has the advantage that wind developers receive a portion of their investment costs back, independent of total production, which will reduce some of the disincentive to build wind farms at relatively low capacity factor sites.  Similarly, a national RES would be unlikely to encourage local production of renewable energy, which might improve wind diversity.

Tom Konrad, Ph.D.

DISCLOSURE: None.

DISCLAIMER: The information and trades provided here are for informational purposes only and are not a solicitation to buy or sell any of these securities. Investing involves substantial risk and you should evaluate your own risk levels before you make any investment. Past results are not an indication of future performance. Please take the time to read the full disclaimer here.

Posted by Tom Konrad at 03:46 PM | Permalink | Comments (7) | TrackBacks (0)

Two months ago, Tom told us how he'd dipped a toe into the black stuff (i.e. bought the OIL etf) on grounds that current supply destruction related to the depressed price of crude oil would eventually lead to the same kind of supply-demand crunch that led oil to spike during the 2004 to mid-2008 period.

If you need evidence that the current price of crude is wreaking havoc in the world of oil & gas exploration, look no further than Alberta and its oil sands. The oil sands contain the second largest oil reserves in the world after Saudi Arabia, but more importantly will account for the lion's share of incremental supply as conventional oil production continues to decline. The province's economy, which had been growing at a breakneck pace for the past five years, has come to a grinding halt: employment insurance claims grew by twice the Canadian average over the past year; personal bankruptcies jumped by 61%; and home foreclosures are on the rise. This is the result of significant project cancellations that will no-doubt limit Alberta's ability to ramp-up output once prices climb back again.

It is thus no surprise that Cambridge Energy Research Associates and others are warning about the economic hazards of curtailing investments into conventional and alternative energy.  

Alt Energy & Fossil Energy

Oil being the most followed of the energy commodities, it is no surprise that it is receiving most of the media attention. Arguably, natural gas and coal prices should matter more to alt energy investors than oil prices: according to REN21, of the $71 billion invested in renewable energy in 2007, 47% went into wind and 30% into solar PV. Both technologies are used for power generation (investments into transportation alternatives are comparatively small) and, in the US, coal and natural gas are the dominant fuels in power production. The relentless focus of the popular press and other pundits on the the economic case for alternative energy being closely tied to the price of crude oil is thus mostly misplaced.

Case in point, last November, a reader wrote me with a correlation analysis conducted over a 5-year period (or, where there wasn't five years' worth of data, since inception). The correlation coefficients between the returns on crude oil and those on alt energy securities were as follows: GEX, 0.19; PBW, 0.14; TAN, 0.18; and the index underlying FAN, 0.19. These are, by most measures, pretty low correlation coefficients. Given the reader's reputation, I trusted the numbers. 

Nevertheless, in alt energy investing as in life, perception is often reality. Given the many signs pointing toward a rapid escalation in crude prices - demand can and will rebound far quicker than supply - I decided to re-explore the relationship between fossil and alt energies. If a strong positive correlation can be found between alt energy investments and crude oil, natural gas and coal investments, there may not be a need to dip a toe into the black (or colorless) stuff at all - one can focus on alt energy alone and still enjoy the ride up.

In order to verify this, I ran a basic correlation analysis with the daily returns on the KOL (coal), OIL (crude) and UNG (nat gas) ETFs/ETN on the one end, and the daily returns on the alt energy ETFs on the other. I got the return data from Yahoo Finance using the Adjusted Close prices that include dividends and splits. Given the results above from our reader's analysis, I only went back six months to see if the (lack of a) relationship still held.   

OIL and UNG track the prices of futures contracts in the underlying commodities, so they are pretty decent securities to use to estimate the returns on crude and nat gas investments. KOL, on the other hand, tracks a basket of coal company stocks. It's the closest thing I could find but it's not ideal as stock returns don't necessarily track commodity returns. For instance, large mining firms will often sell a high proportion of their output through fixed-price contracts, preventing them from benefiting from sudden surges in spot prices. 

The boxes delineate general alt energy ETFs (ICLN to GEX), the solar ETFs (TAN, KWT) and the wind ETFs (FAN, PWND). There aren't any notable differences between the ETF categories, with the most significant differences being between the fossil fuel ETFs/ETN and the alt energy ETFs.   

The relationship between alt energy stocks and coal stocks appears relatively strong. However, in the absence of return data on coal, it's hard to tell whether investing in alt energy stocks (or coal stocks for that matter) is an optimal way of playing increasing coal prices. Given the structure of the coal market, with significantly less involvement by purely financial actors than in oil or natural gas markets, this is a hard one to play for retail investors, although data appears to suggest there is a play.

On February 26, 2008, a drop in wind generation by about 1400 MW over ten minutes, coupled with an increase in demand of 4412 MW due to colder weather, and lower-than scheduled production from other power suppliers, led ERCOT, the Texas grid operator to cut 1100 MW of power to interruptible customers for about 90 minutes.  

Misconceptions

All these facts come from a Reuters article misleadingly titled "Loss of wind causes Texas power grid emergency."  I was dismayed a few weeks ago when this misleading reporting led the generally insightful Master Resource Report to conclude "This is a clear example of why solutions to storage and transmission are going to become increasingly critical as sources such as wind and solar become increasing parts of the generation mix.  This doesn't invalidate renewable power; it just means that the country has plenty of work to do and that there are plenty of investment opportunities besides just wind turbines and solar cells." [link to pdf]

It may be surprising to readers that I find anything objectionable in a call for more storage or transmission, although I'm a stronger proponent of transmission, which I consider more cost effective, even if there are far fewer barriers to adding storage.  

However, the lesson of the 2008 Texas emergency is that while we need more transmission, and, eventually, storage, there are other, cheaper and easier steps we can take to integrate wind and solar to considerably higher levels of penetration..

Not A "Wind" Emergency

The first thing to note about the incident is that the increase in electric demand was more than three times as large as the decrease in supply from wind.  Presumably, ERCOT had been dealing with such fluctuations in demand since long before wind came onto the system.  Part of the problem was that other power suppliers (presumably natural gas and coal, usually considered "reliable") were not delivering what they had promised.  Hence, the drop in wind production was probably only 20% of the overall problem, not 100%, as the headline led readers to believe.

Hero: The Smart Grid 

The next conclusion we can draw is that Demand Response (DR), in the form of interruptible service to large customers, prevented power outages.  Demand response an early form of the Smart Grid which is already working today.  It allows the grid operator to cut power consumption by other users who have previously agreed to such cuts in return for lower electricity rates or cash payments.  According to a 2005 study of DR programs from the American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy, the median cost of DR programs studied was $29 per kWh, and the average cost was $86 which compares quite favorably to the $500 or more per kW cost of a peaking gas turbine.   Demand Response was the hero of February 6, 2008, even if wind was not the villain.

Before we look for investments in energy storage or even transmission, we should be looking to even more cost effective resources for the integration of variable energy sources, such as Demand Response and other variations of the Smart Grid.  Both EnerNOC (ENOC) and Comverge (COMV) provide demand response services to utilities, and this is also one use for Smart Grid technology from such companies as Echelon (ELON), RuggedCom (RUGGF.PK), Telvent (TLVT), and Itron (ITRI).

Villain: The Dumb Grid

During the discussion at a January 21 seminar sponsored by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, featuring speakers from wind forecasting companies 3Tier, WindLogics, and AWS Truewind, the speakers mentioned that the weather forecasters had been telling the system operator of the incoming cold front and likely drop in wind production, but that the system operators chose to make no preparations before the fact.  Had they done so, they could have ramped up standby generation before the cold front hit, and would not have needed to call on the interruptible power resources.

Given that much of the heating in Texas is electric, system operators must have known that a cold front would raise demand.  Why would system operators choose not to heed forecasters' warnings?  There may be many reasons, but in the end, they all probably come back to incentives.  Preparing for a predicted increase in demand would have been the intelligent response, but regulated utilities have very little incentive to use their resources intelligently.  After all, a regulated utility makes most of its profits based on an authorized return on capital based on the investments it can justify to the regulator as necessary to keep the system up and running.  If the utility is, for whatever reason, unable to use those resources effectively, it becomes easier to argue that more resources are needed, which will lead to more profit for utility shareholders, and a less stressful job for system operators..

In other words, regulated utilities have an incentive to use as little brainpower (for which they do not earn a return on capital) and as much capital investment as possible.   They have an incentive to be dumb.  Given such incentives, is it any surprise that they ignore warnings, and then blame the problem on the variability of wind?

Tom Konrad, Ph.D.

DISCLOSURE: Tom Konrad owns ENOC, COMV, ELON, RUGGF, and ITRI
DISCLAIMER: The information and trades provided here and in the comments are for informational purposes only and are not a solicitation to buy or sell any of these securities. Investing involves substantial risk and you should evaluate your own risk levels before you make any investment. Past results are not an indication of future performance. Please take the time to read the full disclaimer here.

Posted by Tom Konrad at 08:44 AM | Permalink | Comments (7) | TrackBacks (1)

Dedicated legislations have been at the core of some of the most impressive regional growth stories in alternative energy, most notably in Germany with the Renewable Energy Sources Act or in California with the various legislative solar initiatives. On Monday, the Canadian province of Ontario became the latest jurisdiction to join the fray as lawmakers introduced the Green Energy and Green Economy Act. Why should investors care? Because such legislations have been at the core of some of the most impressive regional growth stories in alternative energy. 

As a bit of a backgrounder on Ontario, there is currently about 800 MW of installed renewable power capacity (~95% wind) in the province with around 2,500 MW under power purchase agreement (PPA) and scheduled to be brought into commercial operations in the next few years. In late 2006, the province introduced a renewable power feed-in tariff incentive, the first one in North America. This incentive was suspended in May 2008 due to transmission constraints. By then, there were about 500 MW of solar capacity under PPA linked to the incentive, including one of the world's largest solar PV farms.

To put these numbers into perspective, California, the largest solar PV market in the US by quite a stretch, had around 500 MW of PV installed by the end of '07. Next came New Jersey at 69 MW and New York at 32 MW. None of the 500 MW under PPA in Ontario has yet reached commercial operation, and at least some of it will probably be cancelled given current credit conditions. Nevertheless, these figures provide a good idea of the market's potential is. The Canadian Solar Industries Association estimates that Ontario could install up to 16,000 MW of solar PV by 2025, with the potential on Toronto's rooftops alone estimated at 3,600 MW.   

The Green Energy and Green Economy Act

The Act targets three main areas: (1) renewable power generation; (2) energy efficiency; and (3) the smart grid.

1) Renewable Power Generation

Perhaps the most significant measures here are aimed at removing what had proven to be critical barriers to renewable energy projects reaching commercial operation in the province:

1. Renewable energy projects meeting certain criteria will be guaranteed a connection to transmitters and distributors' networks and will be given priority access over other forms of power generation
2. Transmitters and distributors will have to make the necessary network upgrades to allow for the connection of renewable power projects and the eventual expansion of renewable power capacity
3. Renewable power projects will be exempt from all forms of municipal permit requirements to counter a growing trend of NIMBY groups lobbying their municipal councils to block renewable energy projects  
4. A new office of Renewable Energy Facilitation has been created to help speed up the permitting process (e.g. environmental assessments, etc.)

On the revenue side, the legislation does the following:

1. The feed-in tariff that had been suspended in May 2008 will be reintroduced once new rules have been designed (no timeline provided but Q2 2009 has been thrown around)
2. A system of PPA auctions for large-scale renewable power projects that has been in operation since 2004 will be maintained 

Analysis

The measures aimed at removing barriers to renewable projects are significant. However, until the new rules around the feed-in tariff are released (e.g. pricing, eligible fuels, etc), the exact impact of the law will remain unclear. My own guess is that the government will be very aggressive with ramping up renewable energy installed capacity over the next five years as, as its name indicates, this law is also about the economy. If you believe the government, this bill is as much about creating a counter-cyclical effect as it is about cleaning up the environment. If my thesis is correct and this turns out to be a boon for developers, the following stocks should be watched:

2) Energy Efficiency

The Act introduced a number of energy efficiency measures with a focus on building efficiency:

1. No real property can be sold or leased for an extended period of time without undergoing an energy audit
2. Public agencies will be required to come up with an energy conservation and demand management plan
3. Public agencies will be required to consider energy efficiency when making capital investments or when acquiring goods and services (although the devil will be in the details here with more precise rules to come)
4. Energy distributors will be required to meet efficiency and demand management targets (see the brackets above about the devil)
5. The Building Code will be reviewed to include stronger efficiency measures

Analysis

Energy efficiency measures are clearly targeted at the building stock. There aren't really any good direct plays on this, and won't be until the government releases further information on what it intends to do with its own buildings. Building efficiency firms such as Johnson Controls (JCI) could benefit, although its unclear whether this would be needle-moving. 

3) The Smart Grid

Ontario has been somewhat of a leader in smart grid, with legislation passed back in 2005 requiring every home and business in the province to be equipped with a smart meter by 2010. Hydro One, the largest transmitter, has also begun smartening its network by embedding communication equipment from RuggedCom (RUGGF.PK). The Act contains provisions to expand smart grid capex. The Ontario Smart Grid Forum estimates that C$1.6 billion could be spent on a smart grid ramp up in Ontario over the initial five years of such a program. As I mentioned in a past article, while the absolute amount isn't huge, it is still a fair chunk of change for this emerging industry.

The smart grid measures are:

1. A timeline for rolling out the smart grid and apportioning spending responsibilities to different players (e.g. transmitters, distributors, retailers) will be released
2. Communication standards and other technical aspects will de defined through regulation
3. The regulator (called the Ontario Energy Board, the equivalent of a PUC in the US) will be directed to take actions related to the implementation of the smart grid, although these actions aren't yet defined

Once all the rules are released, the legislation will have the effect of formalizing a patchwork of initiatives already underway. In my view, significant smart grid capex can be expected in Ontario over the next few years with a focus on the transmission and distribution infrastructure (rather then end consumers). There are several companies large and small entering the world of smart grid. My personal favorite play on this legislation is RuggedCom (RUGGF.PK): (1) it has already won contracts here; (2) it is part of the home team (based in Ontario); (3) it already generates EBITDA; and (4) even though its stock has withstood the latest storm in equity markets, it's still trading at a reasonable trailing PE compared to peers.   

Conclusion

Many people in the investment world loathe government intervention into anything. However, alt energy has been and continues to be primarily driven by regulation and government policies. In the absence of government support schemes, industry growth rates would be a fraction of what they currently are, and solar PV would not be on the steep cost decline curve it's currently on. It is therefore critical to keep an eye on the policy side to know where growth opportunities will emerge next.

With this new Ontario legislation, my favorite play is the Canadian clean power IPP sector (stocks listed above). The smart grid initiatives will also be worth watching, although more clarity on the rules is required before potential winners can be identified.

DISCLOSURE: Charles Morand does not have a position in any of the stocks discussed above.

DISCLAIMER: I am not a registered investment advisor. The information and trades that I provide here are for informational purposes only and are not a solicitation to buy or sell any of these securities. Investing involves substantial risk and you should evaluate your own risk levels before you make any investment. Past results are not an indication of future performance. Please take the time to read the full disclaimer here.

Posted by Charles Morand at 10:05 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Last week, Tom brought you a piece on the Algonquin Power Income Fund (AGQNF.PK), in which he opined that shift in investor attention away from capital gains toward yield might eventually provide a catalyst for the prices of yield-focused securities such as income trusts to rise. So-called utility trusts, or income trusts where the underlying corporation is engaged in utility activities such as power generation, are a common feature of the Canadian income trust sector (the mother of all income trust sectors). A sub-set of utility trusts is the clean power utility trust, where the power generation assets consist of technologies such as wind, small hydro, biomass and waste-to-energy (WtE). Though new tax rules have effectively made it impossible for new income trusts to be brought to market (barring certain exceptions such as REITs), existing clean power utility trusts (existing as of Oct. 31, 2006) get to operate under the old tax regime until 2011.

The clean power utility trust model is similar to the clean power Independent Power Producer (IPP, see definition) model, whereby firms are pure-play clean power generators (i.e. they own only generation assets) that sell their electricity to utilities, with the exception that the tax treatment awarded to income trusts allows them to pay higher yields by avoiding double taxation.

While changes in legislation mean that this investment vehicle is dying a slow death, Tom was correct to point out that in times where the prospects for strong capital gains are uncertain and interest rates low, income trusts provide a good way for investors to access high yields. What's more, clean power utility trusts, this most unique of Canadian investment sub-sector, allow investors (including US investors) to play North American clean power in a way that does not entail a risky bet on a technology play but is rather much more akin to a utility investment.

Clean Power Utility Trusts             

*As at close on Friday Jan. 9, 2008

One of the major risks facing income trusts is distribution cuts, something that generally happens when the fundamentals of the underlying business are severely diminished or distributions were set too high to begin with (in order to attract investors). As can be noted from the table, the yields on some of these trusts (i.e. Boralex Power Income Fund and Macquarie Power & Infrastructure Income Fund) appear to indicate that investors are anticipating distribution cuts and are demanding a risk premium. Yet preliminary screens on both funds don't uncover much evidence that distribution cuts are in the cards (caveat: these were very preliminary screens).  

While growth will be challenging as long as credit conditions remain tight (individual projects typically use over 50% debt), the underlying business model and existing assets of these funds remain largely immune from a slowing economy - they are utilities with a clean twist. Barring another major round of indiscriminate selling in equity markets, investments in one or more of the clean power utility trusts is a good way of generating returns in the form of cash yields (something that's worth a lot more than the promise of future capital gains in this economic environment) from a comparatively low-risk sector.

Some of the things to look for as red flags in assessing these trusts are: liquidity position (cash on hand; quick ratio) and ability to borrow for emergency purposes (undrawn line of credit); leverage level (debt-to-capital ratio) and the need to roll over debt in the next 12 months; any signs that operating conditions have deteriorated (e.g. for wood biomass, indications that pulp/saw mill closures related to the bad economy are decreasing fuel supply).

DISCLOSURE: Charles Morand does not have a position in any of the securities discussed above.

DISCLAIMER: I am not a registered investment advisor. The information and trades that I provide here are for informational purposes only and are not a solicitation to buy or sell any of these securities. Investing involves substantial risk and you should evaluate your own risk levels before you make any investment. Past results are not an indication of future performance. Please take the time to read the full disclaimer here.

Posted by Charles Morand at 10:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

As I've discussed previously, things haven't been easy of late for alt energy stocks, especially those of the pure-play kind. A few days ago, I was asked which, if any, alt energy stocks I could recommend in this environment. My answer was: none. While people continue to go on television claiming that alt energy's problem has to do with falling oil prices, in my view the real risk at the moment has do with financing - financing for the companies producing the technologies and financing for their customers. The two business models are simultaneously under attack: for technology firms, the model whereby a company burns through loads of cash in the hopes of eventually commercializing  a homerun application is dead, and for power producers and households installing solar panels and wind turbines current credit costs don't permit the necessary high degrees of leverage. As I've argued before, a temporary (i.e. 12 to 18 months) drop in oil prices will not phase policy-makers, and most of the demand right now is policy-driven.

So, for now, I would stay away from most pure-play alt energy stocks, at least until capital markets settle down and credit markets really normalize. However, as we've pointed out on many occasions, there are a wealth of companies out there with diversified revenue streams and appreciable market capitalizations that are moving into alt energy and cleantech. The dramatic drop in equity markets over the past few months has made the dividend yield on some those firms look quite attractive. For long-term investors, the advantage of purchasing a stock with a high dividend yield is that, provided the company can continue paying the dividend, you lock in an attractive yield on your security and you get to benefit from capital appreciation once markets recover.              

The table below lists a few diversified stocks with exposure to alt energy that currently have an attractive dividend yield (>4%). The next step would be to look into the ability of the firm to maintain this yield throughout the bad economy. 

Besides Otter Tail, the names in this table are not typically labelled "green energy" or "alternative energy" stocks. Most of the pure-plays pay no dividend. As stated above, a necessary next step would be to look into these firms to see if they will be able to maintain this dividend.

DISCLOSURE: Charles Morand does not have a position in any of the securities discussed here.

DISCLAIMER: I am not a registered investment advisor. The information and trades that I provide here are for informational purposes only and are not a solicitation to buy or sell any of these securities. Investing involves substantial risk and you should evaluate your own risk levels before you make any investment. Past results are not an indication of future performance. Please take the time to read the full disclaimer here.

Posted by Charles Morand at 08:37 PM | Permalink | Comments (3)

DISCLAIMER: The information and trades provided here are for informational purposes only and are not a solicitation to buy or sell any of these securities. Investing involves substantial risk and you should evaluate your own risk levels before you make any investment. Past results are not an indication of future performance. Please take the time to read the full disclaimer here.

Posted by Charles Morand at 11:17 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Net metering describes the requirement that an electric utility buy electricity from any of its customers that generate their own electricity (usually with some sort of renewable energy, such as solar or wind) at the same price that they sell it to the customer.  That seems fair, doesn't it?

The Utility Perspective

It doesn't seem fair to the utility.  Utilities do more than just generate and sell electricity to customers.  They also are responsible for transmission (delivering the electricity) and reliability (making sure that the lights work when you flip the switch.)

Taking just the reliability requirement, suppose that a homeowner, call him Sol, wants to install a solar photovoltaic (PV) system on his roof and sell the electricity back to the grid when he was not using it himself.  But suppose Sol had a reliability requirement.  For instance, suppose that whenever Ted, one of his neighbors,  turned on the TV, Sol had to make sure the PV system was working, or the TV would not turn on.  Also suppose Ted knows where Sol lives, and that Ted likes to watch TV at night. 

Ted would probably grow quite unhappy with Sol quite rapidly, and would definitely complain, and might even start pay Sol an unfriendly visit at uncomfortable hours.  Sol would probably think twice about signing up for net metering under those rules.  

Utilities aren't enthusiastic about net metering, either.

The Benefits of Grid-Tied Solar

The example above is something of a straw man.  Unlike Sol in my example, with net metering, utilities are not being asked to do something which they are incapable of doing.  In fact, utilities balance load and demand all the time, and so long as net metered systems only account for a small fraction of a utility's total demand, they are un likely to be a strain on the grid.

In fact, because PV panels usually produce power on hot, sunny afternoons when peak load is driven by air conditioning, solar homes often provide a net benefit to the grid [.pdf] for which the customers are not paid, because most utility customers are charged a flat rate per kWh, which does not take into account the higher value of electricity at times of peak demand.

Peak reduction from near Zero Energy Homes with West-facing PV (blue) for Sacramento Municipal Utility District. Slide 19

The ideal orientation for PV depends on the utility's load profile.  West-facing PV will be better for some, while south facing will be better for others.  

What about Small Wind?

Not all distributed generation is south- or west-facing PV, however, and other forms of generation such as small wind often produce power at times unrelated to peak.  If the distributed generation customer is charged a flat rate for electricity, the costs of servicing the customer may come to exceed what he pays for service.  This is especially likely for a customer with a small wind turbine which may produce very little of its power at high priced peak load times, and a lot at times of low load.  This requires the utility to transmit the power a long distance to where it may be needed, as well as run its least expensive generation at less than full capacity in order to accommodate the extra power generated by distributed wind.  

Many environmentalists will read "least expensive generation" in the line above and think "that's exactly what we want... least expensive generation means coal plants, and it would be wonderful if a utility had to shut those down."  

While coal is the least expensive form of generation for most utilities today, but it may not be for long, and not only because of the cost of pricing un carbon emissions.  In terms of marginal cost of generation (the cost of producing an extra kWh of power) wind is already cheaper than coal because there is no fuel cost.  I no longer recall where I heard this anecdote, but I believe that last winter (2005-6), on an extremely windy weekend in Europe, electricity was trading for free on the wholesale market, and many utilities were shutting their coal plants down.  North America still lags Europe in terms of wind penetration, yet utilities in windy areas are likely to get to high wind penetrations first, and these are precisely the areas to which small wind is also most suited.  In the not so distant future, I can easily see a scenario where a rural utility with a high degree of wind generation of its own might have to shut down some of its wind turbines in the middle of a windy night because of net-metered small wind, forcing the utility to pay retail rates for electricity it would otherwise have gotten for free, and then having to pay to transmit that power somewhere it might actually be used.

The Bigger Picture

This is not to say that small wind is bad and west-facing PV is good, just that each impose different costs or benefits on the system as a whole.  Wind can also be good for a system.  In February of 2006, an unseasonable cold snap caused power outages in Denver in part due to unexpectedly large demand for natural gas for heating.  Cold winter nights also happen to be when the wind blows hardest and most consistently on the northeastern Colorado plains, so a small wind turbine on net metering would have actually helped to reduce the severity of the controlled rolling blackouts Xcel ordered.  If the 400 MW Peetz wind farm (now in phase II of construction) had been operational in February 2006, I think it is unlikely that the blackout would have happened at all.

Graph from Trans-Elect, LLC using data from NREL Wind Performance Projections.  Note that the capacity factor for Peetz in NE Colorado is over 60% in the month of February, when the blackouts occurred, and capacity factor is also highest at night.  The other lines are wind regimes from SE Wyoming and Lamar in SE Colorado.

Having Customers Pay for Costs and Benefits

Net metering is an implicit subsidy for distributed generation, because the net metered customer gains the benefits of the utility's grid (reliability and transmission of electricity) without having to pay for it.  In addition, some forms of net metered generation are given greater benefits than others when electricity is metered at a flat rate.  If the price of electricity varied depending upon the load on the system (Time of Use pricing), then properly oriented PV would often be paid more than it under a flat rate system, and people would be encouraged to orient their solar panels for maximum system benefit, rather than maximum electrical output.   

As for the implicit subsidy of unpaid-for transmission, I believe it should be abolished, and replaced by an explicit subsidy large enough to reflect the social benefits of distributed generation other than increased grid stability, which is accounted for with time of use pricing.  

California Solar Initiative: A Note of Caution

When California mandated that solar customers had to sign up for time of use metering in order to earn solar rebates, solar installers felt that they were not given enough support to understand the new rules (which included a lot more than the switch to TOU.)  Non-specialist customer confusion was understandably greater, and TOU pricing became the focus of a minority of solar customers who were actually charged more than they would have been under flat rates (because their solar system too small to offset enough of their air-conditioning driven usage during the peak period).  The California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) removed the TOU pricing requirement because of the outcry.

The fact that the CPUC backed down is a tragedy.  In a very real sense, the solar customers who were hurt by the switch to the TOU tariff were the ones who had been receiving an unfair subsidy in the flat-rate system: they used a disproportionate amount of power during peak times, so much so that the benefits of solar systems were too small to replace the lost implicit subsidy.  Customers who suddenly had to pay something closer to the true cost of their electricity usage found that they were paying more than they had been, despite their new solar panels.  They unsurprisingly clamored to get back onto the flat rate where they were able to take advantage of the market inefficiencies which subsidize their air-conditioning chilled lifestyles.

Such homeowners would do a lot more for the environment if, instead of splashing out money on a PV system, they had made their homes tighter and switched to more efficient air conditioning.  For instance, the hyper-efficient Coolerado Cooler (The commercial version of which is sold as the Delphi HMX) works best in the hot, dry climates which were worst hurt by the time of use rates.  As I have said many times, PV holds an unhealthy fascination for people, to the point that money which would do far more good spend on energy efficiency improvements is effectively wasted on solar.  If we are truly more interested in solving the world's climate problems, we will spend limited government rebate money subsidizing energy efficiency improvements with large net benefit for the grid that also reduce carbon emissions, rather than subsidizing expensive solar systems for a fraction of the benefit.

Conclusions

Net metering is definitely advancing.  On August 21, I attended a Colorado Public Utilities Commission (PUC) hearing on distributed generation, and it seemed clear to me that some form of statewide net metering would likely become law in the Colorado in the next legislative session.  See my notes from that meeting for more detail.  I did bring up the possibility of combining net metering with TOU pricing in the meeting.  However, that and other good ideas from participants (including inverted tiered block pricing) or using solar rebates to subsidized increased energy efficiency will probably require considerably more advocacy if they are to make it into law.  

On the bright side, the Colorado Governor's Energy Office did suggest that the PUC investigate west-facing PV as part of a net metering program.  They are likely to be listened to, although inclusion in the final package from the state legislature is chancier. 

The California experience shows that the complexity of such schemes means that care will have to be taken with design, and educational outreach is important.  If the California consumers were helped with efficiency improvements before they installed solar, there would likely have been much less of a backlash, and the efficiency improvements would have done a lot more good than the solar PV systems which would have served as the carrot to induce the efficiency improvements.

DISCLAIMER: The information and trades provided here are for informational purposes only and are not a solicitation to buy or sell any of these securities. Investing involves substantial risk and you should evaluate your own risk levels before you make any investment. Past results are not an indication of future performance. Please take the time to read the full disclaimer here.

Posted by Tom Konrad at 04:50 PM | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBacks (0)

In the most recent two installments of Energy Tech Stocks' interview with me cover my views on transmission stocks, and biofuel stocks.  Readers of AltEnergyStocks know that I am a big fan of electricity transmission, a theme I keep coming back to.  You also know that I have a very ambivalent relationship with both ethanol and biodiesel.  So I liked Bill's transmission article, but I just wasn't able to convey to him the subtleties of how I feel about biofuels.  But he got one thing right: the owners of biofuel feedstock are likely going to be the biggest winners.

Relevant articles on Biofuels

Competition in Ethanol

An Insider's View of the Ethanol Industry

Let Them Eat Grass

Blue Sun Biodiesel

Biodiesel's Competition

My Biodiesel Jeep

The Answer is Trading in the Wind

While you're on the Energy Tech Stocks site, read a little about trading of wind power futures (here and here.nbsp; While I personally have no interest in speculating in wind futures, I predict this will be a great boon to wind farm owners and climate scientists everywhere.  I also predict hedge funds which will use strategies based on emerging inverse correlations between wind power futures and natural gas futures, probably sooner than anyone might guess. 

DISCLAIMER: The information and trades provided here are for informational purposes only and are not a solicitation to buy or sell any of these securities. Investing involves substantial risk and you should evaluate your own risk levels before you make any investment. Past results are not an indication of future performance. Please take the time to read the full disclaimer here.

Posted by Tom Konrad at 02:17 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Bribing and Pressuring Fissile Regimes

On July 25th, France offered to build a nuclear reactor for Libya to power a water desalinization plant.  Russia is delaying the delivery of  nuclear fuel for Iran's nearly completed Bushehr to help pressure them to comply with UN Security council demands for less secrecy.  South Korea, Japan, China, Russia, and the United States promised to provide 950 thousand tons of oil or equivalent aid to North Korea in return for permanently disabling all its nuclear facilities.

I'm not going to argue about whether using energy aid is the best way to influence this country or that; the fact is that no matter what you or I think about it, the carrot will always be part of international diplomacy, as well the stick.  I want to talk about what form that carrot takes.

This map shows the amount of solar energy in hours, received each day on an optimally tilted surface during the worst month of the year.
Image Source: Sunwize.  

Both Iran and Libya are well suited for concentrating solar power (CSP), and the declared purpose of the reactor for Libya is desalinization, an excellent application for CSP.  Iran has a wind resource as good as the American Midwest (although CSP may be a better choice due to sandstorms.)  While North Korea has only moderate insolation, US non-governmental organizations were already working to help North Koreans with wind power in 1999.  North Korea has a high quality wind resource all along its Western coastline in Korea Bay, which is shallow and well suited to offshore wind, and also nearest the capital, Pyongyang.

Intermittent Electricity would be an Improvement

The strongest objection to wind power (and to a much lesser extent solar) is that these are intermittent resources.  Yet all these countries already have problems with persistent power outages.  Iran already has problems meeting demand during peak summer hours, and CSP is better suited for meeting peak summer loads than nuclear power, which is a baseload resource, which operates at its worst on hot summer days due to its cooling requirements.  

Power utility time of use for California CSP Plants.  Source: San Diego Renewable Energy Study Group, 2005 [.pdf, page 15.]

In Libya and North Korea, the electricity situation is even worse.  Libya's utility vows to reduce power rationing, and provide more hours of electricity, while in North Korea the entire nation, with the exception of Pyongyang, is switched off at night.  Providing North Korea with intermittent wind power rather than fuel oil for dispatchable power plants might lessen Kim Il Sung's incentive to give his capital such favorable treatment compared to the countryside, and do more to help the populace, rather than giving the regime another lever for control.

Technologies for Peaceful Applications

Iran and Libya claim that they want nuclear power only for peaceful applications.  Concentrating solar power is better suited to enhance their energy security than nuclear because it does not rely on imported uranium.  If that is what they want, CSP seems just as well suited for their purposes, and would give them greater energy security since it does not rely on imported fuel.  With North Korea, supplying wind turbines would be even simpler politically, because the existing agreement already allows for equivalent energy aid.  If we in the West are worried about the additional security renewable energy might give to these unpredictable regimes, shouldn't we be even more worried about providing them with nuclear material?

This same line of thought applies to President Bush's possibly Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty-busting deal with India.  Regions of Southern and Western India also have excellent solar resources (see map).  India may already have the bomb, but that is no excuse for eviscerating one of the few (and already weak) safeguards the world has against nuclear proliferation.  It might be argued that India does not need our help to take advantage of their renewable energy resources, but, if so, why do they need our help with their civilian nuclear industry?

Posted by Tom Konrad at 03:26 PM | Permalink | Comments (3) | TrackBacks (0)

What is a good indicator of whether something is "hot"? When the top weekly in the world runs at least one article about it in every edition it publishes. That is what has been happening with The Economist and alternative energy over the past few months.

This week's piece was dedicated to the economics of wind power. Citing studies conducted in the Netherlands and Denmark, two wind power markets that are comparatively more developed than most North American markets (barring maybe Texas), the piece argues that, once a significant part of its initial costs have been paid off, wind power can reduce average power prices significantly because the marginal cost of producing it is close to 0 (the fuel is free).

This is consistent with a report released in January by Emerging Energy Research that found that, under a scenario where carbon emissions are priced at €30 ($41) per metric tonne, "the cost of energy production from land-based wind turbines would be well below the cost of natural gas and coal plants at today's levels" in Europe. Contracts for one metric ton of carbon for phase 2 of the EU ETS (Europe's emissions trading program) are currently trading at around €21. I need not remind you that cap-and-trade for greenhouse gases may be here soon.

As our regular readers know, I have been a wind enthusiast for some time now, and I continue to believe that wind has some of the strongest fundamentals of all forms of renewable generation. In the context of rising fuel costs and the imminent pricing of carbon emissions in the US, the ability of wind to create savings for customers may one day prove to be the strongest argument in its favor.

Investment Ideas

Of course there are the issues of grid stability and transmission bottlenecks which could slow growth in the wind sector. However, as we have pointed out in the past, we believe that both of these apparent limitations may actually provide good investment opportunities. On the topic of frequency regulation, two stocks in particular are worth watching: Beacon Power (NASDAQ:BCON) and VRB Power Systems (TSE:VRB.V or VRBPF.PK). We have written in the past about opportunities in transmission and inverters.

The other major problem facing the wind industry is chronic shortages of wind turbines. Here again, however, this means that turbine manufacturers should do very well in the next few years. Some of the top stocks in this space are:Vestas (VWSYF.PK), Gamesa (GCTAF.PK), GE (NYSE:GE) and Suzlon (SZEYF.PK). The Pink Sheets listings are ADRs - all of these firms have proper listings in their home countries.

DISCLOSURE: The author is long Beacon Power.

Posted by Charles Morand at 11:29 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

A recent study by Emerging Energy Research confirmed what we have been saying about wind power for some time - namely that growth prospects look very strong for the North American market.

The study, entitled "US Wind Power Markets and Strategies, 2007-2015", is not available free of charge but you can access a summary here (PDF document).

The US: The World's Top Dog

Here are some of the key takeaways from the summary:

a) The US wind power market is expected to grow from 11,000 MW in 2006 to around 49,000 MW by 2015 (for those for whom MW doesn't mean much, this essentially equates to very solid growth)

b) Over $65 billion is expected to be invested in new US wind capacity over the 2007-2015 period

c) By 2015, the US will have a 19% share of global installed wind capacity, making it the single largest wind market in the world

The study notes that there will be (and currently are) wide disparities in regional wind activity. Texas, California, Minnesota, New York, Colorado, and Washington will together account for around 53% of market growth between 200t and 2015.

Consolidation, Consolidation

EER also reports a consolidation trend in the industry, as Independent Power Producers (IPPs) seek to solidify their positions in the market. The study notes that a group of 10 to 15 IPPs is currently emerging from the pack, including strong international alternative energy players such as Iberdrola (IBDRF.PK) and EDP (ELCPF.PK).

We have written in the past about problems with shortages in wind turbine components. EER discusses the intensification of vendor competition in the US wind market. The report notes:"Turbine manufacturing investment in the US has grown markedly in the past two years, with aggressive new entrants now vying with US market veterans GE and Vestas for big name contracts."

Implications for Investors

So what does this all boil down to for the public market investor? It's simple: wind is a good business to be invested in or at least thinking about. The fundamentals look strong, in part because governments are not going to stop supporting it anytime soon, and the industry is fast reaching the kind of scale that will allow wind to be competitive with other forms of electricity generation (especially so as climate change regulations are introduced and CO2 emissions are priced). One more thing: the technology is tried and tested.

There are investment opportunities at three main levels: (a) IPPs, which are a relatively safe play on wind as utilities tend to be stable investments; (b) wind turbine vendors, whose order books are full and showing no signs of emptying out; and (c) feedstock providers, such as providers of carbon fiber. Browse through our Wind archives for potential company names.

There is, however, one big caveat: watch out for transmission bottlenecks. Problems with grid stability were cited as the reason to put a moratorium on all wind development in the Canadian province of Alberta, and underinvestment in transmission capacity has been a problem across North America.

DISCLOSURE: The author does not have any positions in any of the companies discussed above.

Posted by Charles Morand at 05:33 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

In the face of a declining overall energy market today, three of our favorite alternative energy stocks posted strong gains on high volume.

The Oil Services HOLDRs ETF (OIH) was down 2% and the PowerShares WilderHill Clean Energy ETF (PBW) was down 1.7%. Indeed, the vast majority of the energy stocks that we track were in the red. But bucking the trend were two energy stocks that we have profiled in the recent past and a third company that we will begin covering today.

First on the list is our favorite wind energy play, Welwind Energy International (WWEI). We recommended Welwind during October of 2006, when it was trading around $0.07. It closed today at $0.18, up 26% on 4X average trading volume. That is more than a 900% gain in the six months since we first initiated coverage on Welwind.

Next on the list of breakout stocks today is Nova Biosource Fuels (NVBF). Nova just announced a move from over-the counter to the AMEX, which will be effective on Monday, May 14. Nova recently held its official groundbreaking ceremony at the site of its planned biodiesel refinery in Seneca, Illinois. The plant is expected to have a 60-million-gallon per year biodiesel production capacity from locally generated, low-cost feedstocks, including rendered animal fats and oils and recycled vegetable and animal- based greases. Nova’s stock price increased by 4.5% today on 12X normal trading volume.

Our final stock is getting its first mention on Gold Stock Bull today. Despite being the darling of the ethanol investment community and attracting funding from none other than Bill Gates, we have been hesitant to recommend Pacific Ethanol (PEIX). We watched the stock quadruple during 2006 from $10 to nearly $45, but couldn’t see any fundamental justification for the rise and held off. PEIX has since retreated to around $15 in an overall downturn amongst ethanol producers.

So what is driving our optimism with Pacific Ethanol? A shift from hype to substance. The Sacramento, Calif.-based company swung to a first-quarter profit, earning $1.9 million, or 5 cents per share. During the same quarter last year, Pacific Ethanol lost $612,000, or 2 cents per share. This first-quarter profit was generated from revenue that more than doubled to $99.2 million from $38.2 million. Pacific Ethanol sold 37.5 million gallons of ethanol, almost twice as many as it did a year ago, and ethanol prices were up more than 20 percent.

Pacific Ethanol’s share price responded by climbing 9.1% on 6X normal trading volume. Despite fears by some investors of an oversupply in ethanol during the back half of 2007, we believe PEIX will continue pushing higher. We have a price target of $22 for 2007, which is a 47% increase from the current price. The chart below shows clear support at $15 and we believe a bounce off this price floor is imminent.

Pacific Ethanol currently has one plant operational, one plant about to open and three other plants under construction. The operational plant is located in Madera, California and has a capacity of 35 million gallons per year. It is the largest ethanol plant on the west coast.

Their second plant is being constructed in Boardman, Oregon and will also have a capacity of 35 million gallons per day. Construction is scheduled to be completed in the next few months.

Pacific Ethanol also has begun construction on three 50 MGY name plate capacity production plants that will open mid 2008. Magic Valley, Idaho will serve growing markets in the Intermountain West, while Pacific Ethanol’s Stockton, California and Imperial Valley, California plants will help meet the growing demand for ethanol in California.

The energy bill passed by Congress in 2005 requires an increase in ethanol use by refiners to 7.5 billion gallons by the year 2012. With Democrats now controlling both houses and looking likely to take over the presidency, we can only expect additional government incentive for alternative energies such as ethanol.

A significant portion of Ethanol demand is coming from the fact that states across the country have banned MTBE (Methyl Tertiary Butyl Ether), a fuel additive formerly required to increase octane levels of gasoline. MTBE has found its way into drinking water and many believe is cancer-causing. Ethanol is the only other commercially viable additive that will bring gasoline into compliance with state and federal clean air regulations. Consumption and production of ethanol has continued rising at a record pace and should be considered as part of any investment portfolio.

Good luck and happy investing!

Jason Hamlin is Founder of Gold Stock Bull, a site that has been tracking the secular bull market in gold and silver since its inception, back in early 2002, as well as the emerging bull market in energy since it took off in early 2004.

Posted by Jason Hamlin at 11:22 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The polysilicon shortage in the solar industry is, by now, a well-known fact, and most investors are aware of the scale and probable duration of that shortage, as well as of what companies are positioned to benefit from a tight polysilicon market.

A similar situation is currently unfolding in the wind industry. We have discussed the very bright prospects for the wind sector here before. In the US, the American Wind Energy Association forecasts that installed capacity could grow from 11,603 MW today to around 100,000 MW by 2020. In Canada, Emerging Energy Research predicts that installed wind capacity will expand from around 1,500 MW today to around 14,000 MW by 2015.

We have also noted how the seeming lack of attention wind receives from retail investors, despite the fact that wind is a proven technology nearly competitive with conventional grid power, likely stems from the fact that there just aren't a great deal of 'exciting', headlines-grabbing wind stories in North America. Wind just keeps on growing quietly (albeit very rapidly), and North American investors are paying that growth next to no attention. The same definitely cannot be said of solar, with its plethora of exotic Chinese plays and its engrossing contest for technological supremacy. At the end of the day, though, wind is a proven and well-understood business with a good track record...which cannot always be said of solar.

The New Kid On The Shortage Block?

One of the key factors limiting growth in wind right now is a shortage in the various components needed to make wind turbines, from gearboxes all the way down to bearings. Someone alerted me yesterday to an interesting article in last week's Economist discussing feedstock shortage problems in the solar and wind industries. While the solar polysilicon story is well-known, the shortfall in wind turbine components supply will probably come as news to many folks. The article notes:

"Wind turbines are giant machines that require lots of parts. Several firms are building new factories: Vestas has just announced its first American plant, which will make blades in Colorado. But new factories will take several years to get up to speed. In the meantime, buyers are putting down deposits to reserve their turbines. GE Energy, the largest turbine installer in America, is already booked up until the end of next year."

A Stock That Could Benefit

This is somewhat timely given that in the latest Week In Cleantech we recommended a post by Notable Calls discussing exactly that topic, and providing a stock pick.

The pick is Zoltek [NASDAQ:ZOLT], a carbon fiber manufacturer said by RBC Capital Markets to be, because of the projected growth in wind, in a "commodity cycle position" similar to that MEMC Electronic Materials [NYSE:WFR] was in two years ago.

Shortages, Shortages...

Feedstock shortages related to alternative energy are currently responsible for some of the biggest gains generated in this bull market, both through direct commodity exposure and through exposure to companies involved in providing the feedstock. Just think of uranium, corn and sugar, to name a few.

This is merely an extension of that phenomenon - the growth in alternative energy has been so rapid over the past two years that players in various positions along supply chains just haven't had time to ramp up production enough to meet demand.

While this is bad news for downstream players, it is worth keeping an eye on up- and mid-stream companies who typically hold an appreciable degree of pricing power in tight markets.

The polysilicon, uranium and corn stories are well-known - might it be time to start paying more attention to wind?

DISCLOSURE: I do not hold a position in any of the stocks discussed above but I do have exposure to wind

Posted by Charles Morand at 11:23 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Avoiding the Rush

Whenever there is a gold rush, the people who make the real money are seldom the gold miners, but rather the suppliers to the miners that come home with the lion's share of the profits.   This is not because there is not an incredible amount of money to be made in mining gold, but because the nature of a gold rush is that too many optimistic miners are encouraged by the early profits of a few to rush to pursue too few opportunities.

To many, the rush into solar stocks seems to be just that sort of gold rush.  The boom in solar IPOs certainly reminds me of the type of feeding frenzy in which incautious investors are likely to get burned.  And we are also seeing some other signs of rampant speculation, where investors are buying poorly managed (or even dishonest) companies with almost the same fervor of well managed ones.  There's little doubt that the future is bright for solar power, but picking solar companies that are going to survive and thrive in that bright future is becoming increasingly difficult in an increasingly crowded field.

Things Photovoltaic Makers Need

In a gold rush like this one it makes more sense to look at the suppliers.  The most obvious suppliers for solar photovolatic (PV) manufacturers are the suppliers of solar grade silicon, from which most PV panels are made.  This is what I was doing during last summer, and my favorite silicon supplier, MEMC Electronic Materials (NYSE:WFR) has doubled since then (a much better performance than I was expecting in such a short time.)  I have since taken most of my (and my clients') gains.  With many wondering how long the silicon supply shortage will last, and the explosion of companies advancing thin film and concentrating photovolatic technologies to get around the shortage, it seems simpler to get off the silicon roller coaster than to predict when prices will peak or guessing which PV technology will be the most economic in a couple years.

Thinking about suppliers to PV manufacturers, we might also think of Spire Corp. (NasdaqGM: SPIR), which supplies solar manufacturing equipment, but that stock is also trading at its 52-week highs, and is up about 50% in the last six months, and has tripled in the last five years, yet is still unprofitable. [UPDATE: Applied Materials (NasdaqGS:AMAT) just won a contract to supply a thin-film production line to Spain's T-Solar Global. As a supplier to the PV industry, AMAT is worth inclusion in my Alternative Energy Blue Chip Portfolio.]

While I'm used to investing in unprofitable companies, I prefer to buy out-of-favor unprofitable companies, rather than ones that have recently had a big run-up.  Which brings me to my current favorite supplier to the PV industry: makers of the inverters which convert DC power from PV panels into the AC power used by most of our appliances and the grid.  (Small inverters are also used in campers to provide A/C power for portable TVs and other electronics.)

Wind turbines also use a similar device called a converter, although wind converters convert the "wild AC" produced by wind turbines into the more domesticated variety used on the grid.  Many manufacturers make both PV inverters and wind converters.  Many also make power supplies which convert AC to DC power, since these are basically inverters operating in reverse.

North American Stocks

Here is a run-down of the major manufacturers traded in the US and Canada:

Xantrex (TSX:XTX or Pink Sheets: XARXF): Makes a range of solar inverters from 10 to 225 kW and wind converters for turbines up to 1.5 MW.  They are also well established small inverters for cars and campers and other power conversion products.  And, unlike many other alternative energy companies, they have had profitable years in 2005 and 2006.  This is likely the safest investment among power electronics manufacturers, but, by the same token, has the least possible upside.  Xantrex's stock has been flat for the last couple years (after falling about 40% from its IPO in 2004: not a lot of excitement here, which is exactly when I like to invest.

SatCon Technology Corp. (NasdaqCM:SATC) operates in a broad range of power electronics businesses, including grid support and power quality, as well as power conversion.  Their wind converters are designed for turbines from 250kW to 2MW and larger.  Their PV inverters are designed for systems from 30-500kW in size.   SatCon is not currently profitable, and is unlikely to become profitable in the next couple years, but the earnings trends seem to be in the right direction, and they are in the rapidly growing industrial segment of the market.  SATC also fell immediately after its IPO in 2002, and has been gyrating rather wildly since then.  It's currently down about 60% from its price at the IPO, and seems to be showing some signs of life.

Sustainable Energy Technologies (Toronto Venture: STG; Pink Sheets: STGYF) makes a low voltage inverter suitable for residential sized systems and charging battery backups that they market as having superior efficiency and reliability, which they also market for use with fuel cells.  In addition, they sell a vertical axis wind turbine.   STG is definitely the most speculative of the three, but also the greenest and purest play on alternative energy.  Given its speculative nature, it's probably best to wait for a pullback before investing.

These companies do not have the market to themselves by any means; major competitors include the private German Compaies SMA (Sunnyboy inverters and Windyboy converters) and Fronius.  Nevertheless, there is little excitement around the stocks (except for STG which is such a tiny company that the only limit on its stock price is speculators' greed) and yet they have as much potential to benefit from the growth of Solar as do the much hyped solar stocks.


DISCLOSURE: Tom Konrad and/or his clients have positions in the following stocks mentioned here: WFR, XTX, SATC,STG.

DISCLAIMER: The information and trades provided here are for informational purposes only and are not a solicitation to buy or sell any of these securities. Investing involves substantial risk and you should evaluate your own risk levels before you make any investment. Past results are not an indication of future performance. Please take the time to read the full disclaimer here.

Posted by Tom Konrad at 06:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)

I took 2 long positions yesterday (1 in my normal trading account and the other in my retirement account) in an emerging Canadian integrator of megawatt-sized wind energy conversion systems (i.e turbines) called AAER Inc [TSE:AAE]. Besides turbine assembly, the company also provides a range of services to clients in the wind industry, ranging from assistance in project planning and financing to post-installation maintenance.

Now it must be said from the outset that is a very speculative play on North American wind and not suitable for all investors. I entered one of my positions at C$0.38 and the other at C$0.39.

What initially poked my interest in this stock was a Jan. 17 press release stating that a small wind turbine manufacturer had just signed a 10-year lease agreement to take over a former car factory in the Canadian province of Quebec. I looked into this further and found out that, a few months earlier (Nov. 22, 2006), AAER Inc. had signed a C$35 million contract to deliver and maintain, for a period of 6 years, 17 1.5 MW wind turbines to Katabatic Power Corp., a privately-held wind farm developer based in British Columbia. Katabatic is going to use the turbines for its Mt. Hays project, and has an option for a further 17 turbines in 2008.

The Company

AAER Inc. has only existed in its current form since Nov. 7, 2006. Before that date, it was known as Bolcar Energie, a publicly-listed capital pool company that had been established with the sole purpose of making an acquisition in the turbine manufacturing space. Although Bolcar filed its preliminary prospectus as far back as July 2003, AAER did not go public until May '06, following a qualifying transaction with Bolcar. On Nov. 7, after a reverse takeover, Bolcar was terminated and the company became officially known as AAER Inc.

AAER's most recent financial disclosure, available on SEDAR, sheds very little light on what the firm currently looks. Filed under the Bolcar name, the company reported a total loss of C$2,532,406 on revenues of C$7,491 for the 6-month period ended Sept. 30, 2006. For the previous fiscal year, ended on March 31, 2006, Bolcar reported a loss of C$1,665,136 on no revenue.

I didn't pay too much attention to Bolcar's numbers here as the firm had not begun operating when it last filed. Unlike certain sectors like fuel cells, wind is a proven business and the name of the game is not to burn through cash for years hoping for a blockbuster technology sometime in the future - new players in this sector should be able to generate sales and produce operating earnings rapidly, as the competition from well-established firms is stiff. So far, I like what I'm seeing from AAER.

What I liked

Here are the key elements that sold me on AAER:

A) Their board of directors features an impressive roster of well-connected individuals that could greatly help strategic partners (i.e. wind farm operators) land good contracts. Most notably, Ted Moses, one of the most influential First Nations people in Canada, could be key in securing the support of Aboriginal communities in several regions. Aboriginal communities will play a large part in the development of Canada's wind industry because of the land they now control, especially in the northern parts of many provinces.

B) Canada is slated to become one of the top markets globally for wind energy between now and 2015, with installed capacity forecasted to grow tenfold from its current 1,500 MW to around 14,000 MW. Within Canada, Quebec is expected (PDF document, go to p.6 for the executive summary in English) to be one of most aggressive jurisdictions with regards to developing wind energy, with installed capacity forecasted to grow from around 215 MW today to 4,000 MW by 2015. AAER is very well-positioned to benefit from the growth of the wind industry in Quebec, and has already demonstrated that it has the rest of Canada on its radar. AAER states that it's business target is North America as a whole. This brings me to...

C) I really like the fact that AAER is doing business with Katabatic. The Mt. Hays project really is the tip of the iceberg - the real meat lies with a project called Banks Island. As reported on Katabatic's website, "Fortis Bank rated the North Coast of British Columbia as the number one wind resource in the world. Banks Island was independently assessed by Helimax (as part of a 2002 study on BC Wind prospects) to have 2,780 MW available." Katabatic has found a financier of renown, Deutsche Bank, to help bankroll its Banks Island project. Banks Island would be developed with a view to exporting green power to the largest power market in North America, California. I have not come across any information indicating that AAER might get a piece of that action. However, its MW-scale turbines, adaptable for the tough conditions encountered in northern BC, would be a great fit for such a project...not to mention the fact that the 2 entities already have a business relationship.

D) The company just announced a private placement of 3,284,856 shares at C$0.35 per unit, as well as the issuance of 314,200 warrants entitling the holder to 1 common share and 1 common share purchase warrant at a price of C$0.60 for a period of 2 years. A little over a month ago, AAER entered into a share-for-debt agreement under the terms of which it issued 97,417 common shares at a price of C$0.3375 per share "in settlement of outstanding indebtedness aggregating C$32,878.09." I like the fact that these transactions took place at close to the price that I paid for my positions, and that there are investors out there willing to bet that the stock will trade over C$0.60 within 2 years (although we're admittedly talking about not very many shares).

A Word of Caution...

Now needless to repeat that this is a highly speculative investment that entails a number of risks. What's out in the public domain so far looks very good to me, but that doesn't say much since there really isn't much publicly-available information on AAER Inc. Nevertheless, as I stated before, I am quite bullish on wind in North America, and this could do quite well for me if I'm right. I'll report back on this trade in a few months.

Until then, happy alt energy investing!

DISCLOSURE: Charles Morand is long AAER.

DISCLAIMER: I am not a registered investment advisor. The information and trades that I provide here are for informational purposes only and are not a solicitation to buy or sell any of these securities. Investing involves substantial risk and you should evaluate your own risk levels before you make any investment. Past results are not an indication of future performance. Please take the time to read the full disclaimer here.

Posted by Charles Morand at 10:24 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)

Renewable energy is still very much in its infancy, which means that companies in the space are either profitless or high-multiple startups, or divisions of much larger companies (GE Wind (NYSE:GE), or utilities such as FPL Group (NYSE:FPL) and Xcel (NYSE:XEL) which get much of their power from conventional generation.) This presents a dilemma for investors who understand the compelling drivers for the sector, but whose risk tolerance or financial needs indicate an income-based investing strategy.

Canadian Income Trusts in Renewable Energy

A few Canadian Income Trusts have historically gone some way towards filling this niche. These include the Boralex Power income trust (BPT-UN.TO / BLXJF.PK), Algonquin Power (APF-UN.TO/AGQNF.PK), and the Clean Power Income Fund (CLE-UN.TO/CEANF.PK).

The Boralex Power Income Fund owns an electricity generating asset mix of approximately 45% hydroelectric (by 2005 revenues), 32% wood residue (biomass) with some cogeneration, and 23% natural gas fired cogeneration. It is managed and 23% owned by its parent utility, Boralex (BLX.TO/BRLXF.PK).

Algonquin Power Trust owns a mix of hydroelectric generation (25% of sales), cogeneration (42% of sales), Alternative fuels (9% of sales), and infrastructure (24% - mostly waste disposal and treatment. Percentages based on 2005 data.) Alternative fuels (mostly landfill gas, municipal solid waste, and some wind) comprise the fastest growing segment of the portfolio.

Finally, the Clean Power Income Fund, which trumpets itself as "the first income fund to be certified under Canada’s Environmental Choice^MProgram," owns a mix of electricity generation assets consisting of landfill gas (37% based on 2005 cash flow), biomass (27%), hydropower (26%), and wind (10%). They are completing the Erie Shores 99MW wind project which will increase the wind portion of the portfolio.

Disappearing Tax Advantages

While none of these have the stability of a bond fund, they have gone some way towards bridging the gap between volatile startups and predictable income, allowing a broader spectrum of investors to participate in renewable energy. However, they were all organized to take advantage of a provision of Canada's tax code which conferred significant tax advantages, similar to the advantages enjoyed by REITs and Master Limited Partnerships in the US. Those tax advantages were scheduled to be phased out over the next four years to the surprise of the financial markets in November, and while some are still fighting the tax law changes, the trust management of these three trusts have, by their actions acknowledged the reality of the changes.

Within the last week, The Clean Power Income Fund board has agreed to be acquired by Algonquin Power, subject to the approval of its unitholders, while The Boralex Power Income Fund has announced that it is up for sale, possibly to be acquired by its parent, Boralex, which currently owns 23% of the fund and acts as its manager.

Risks and Opportunities

For the traditional income investor, primarily interested in stability, all this activity and the volatility is bad news, but it presents opportunities for the risk tolerant investor interested in purchasing solid, income producing assets, something of a rarity in retail renewable energy investing. It's impossible to say what good price entry levels are for any of these funds, but they are all considerably cheaper than they were before the tax changes were announced in November.

Prospective investors should also understand the tax implications (which depend not only on the changing laws, but on the nationality and tax status of the account used) before investing.

Tom Konrad, Ph.D.is an independent investment adviser registered in the state of Colorado who helps people reach their investment goals while protecting the environment.

DISCLOSURE: Tom Konrad and some of his clients hold positions in The Clean Power Income Trust and the Algonquin Power Trust.

DISCLAIMER: The information and trades provided here are for informational purposes only and are not a solicitation to buy or sell any of these securities. Investing involves substantial risk and you should evaluate your own risk levels before you make any investment. Past results are not an indication of future performance. Please take the time to read the full disclaimer here.

Posted by Tom Konrad at 11:41 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)

Without a doubt, ethanol and solar are the 2 alt energy categories that have attracted the most investor attention in North America in the past few years, and that is because they are the 2 categories that feature the most US-listed stocks. However, despite its comparatively lower profile as an asset class, investors should not forget about wind power!

On January 18th, Emerging Energy Research published a short study on the growth of wind power in China. For 2006, China installed 1,040 MW of new wind capacity, making it the 5th country in the world in terms of new wind capacity. Now some may say that that's nothing to write home about, especially compared to the 2,454 MW of new wind capacity installed in the US in '06. However, one of the things noted by the Emerging Energy Research study is that China went from about 100 MW in 2003 to 2,300 MW in 2006, and that the government now has a target of having 30,000 MW installed by 2020.

The following week, on January 23rd, the American Wind Energy Association released its growth figures for '06. The industry added 27% more wind capacity to its fleet in 2006 as compared to 2005, and is expected to add an extra 27% in '07. Wind power in the US grew by an annual average of 29% between 2000 and 2005. The industry's goal (PDF document) is to expand from 11,603 MW today to 100,000 MW by 2020.

However way you look at these numbers, they spell nothing but solid growth for the firms underpinning this industry. But, as noted at the outset of this post, wind power has not, outside of a few large institutional investors, attracted much attention from North American investors in the recent past, and this despite the fact that the landscapes of some of America's most populous states are littered with wind farms.

The other thing to note is that wind power is much closer than its solar counterpart to being competitive with conventional generation technologies without government support, as demonstrated by another recent Emerging Energy Research study. Under a scenario where carbon emissions would be regulated in the US with an emissions trading system, wind would likely prove competitive on its own.

Now the problem remains: there is a dearth of viable 'pure-play' wind stocks on US markets. But that doesn't mean, in my view, that investors should shy away from an industry with such impressive growth prospects. Those of you who are able to purchase European stocks have a broader spectrum of options, but most of the heavy-hitters are accessible to US investors...although not alway in an optimal form (see below). Here are a few ways to play this:

Utilities

FPL [NYSE:FPL] - with over 3,600 MW of installed wind capacity in 15 states, subsidiary FPL Energy is the US leader in wind power.

Iberdrola [MCE:IBE or OTC:IBDRF] - European leader in wind energy with aggressive plans for international expansion, including in the US and China.

Acciona [MCE:ANA or OTC:ACXIF] - not technically a utility but ranks 3rd in the world for installed wind capacity.

Turbines & Parts

Vestas [CO:WVS or OTC:VWSYF] - over a 3rd of the world's market share for wind turbines.

Gamesa [MCE:GAM or OTC:GCTAF] - about 18% of the world's market share for wind turbines, and involved in wind farm development with exposure to China and the US.

General Electric - [NYSE:GE] - about a 10% market share but revenue from this segment comparatively very small.

American Superconductors - [NASDAQ:AMSC] - maker of wire and power electronic converters with applications in wind generation; has exposure to China.

Now I don't claim to know each and every company out there with exposure to wind, and I am sure there are other interesting ways to play this space. For instance, the Pink Sheets and OTC Board feature a few smaller, high-risk companies with exposure to wind. As always, we welcome input from our readers.

DISCLOSURE: I do not have a position in any of the stocks listed above, and I am not affiliated with any of the organizations discussed in this article.

Posted by Charles Morand at 11:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (5)

One of the stories recently featured on one of my favorite sites, Reddit, was a link to some amazing pictures of offshore wind farms.

Seeing these pictures of wind turbines really made clear to me the reality of offshore wind power, and the size and scope required to harness the power of wind over the ocean.

Summarizing some points from the article:

Distributed Energy Systems Corp (DESC) has been awarded a contract for $1.14 million to install, commission and service three additional NorthWind 100 wind turbines for the Alaska Village Electric Cooperative (AVEC) in the rural village of Chevak, Alaska. The contract continues AVEC's commitment to the development of its rural wind program in Alaska, bringing the total number of turbines AVEC has purchased from Northern Power to 13.

The three new turbines, combined with an additional NorthWind 100 purchased by AVEC in October 2005, are expected to be installed in Chevak by the autumn of 2006. Together, the four turbines will produce approximately 905,332 kWh of electricity annually, replacing about 30% of the energy normally generated by diesel fuel. At current fuel prices, the turbines are expected to provide AVEC significant annual fuel cost savings. [ more ]

Posted by Mark Anderson at 07:45 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Western Wind Energy (WNDEF.OB) announced that the United States Federal Energy Regulatory Commission ("FERC") has issued a definitive decision in Western Wind's favor, allowing Western Wind to access a key transmission line. The decision enables Western Wind to start work on its 120 MW power sales agreement with Southern California Edison. This agreement enables Western Wind to generate over US $30 million per year in annual power sales. [ more ]

Posted by Mark Anderson at 07:50 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Scottish Power plc (SPI) was granted final planning approval to construct Europe's largest on-shore windfarm, the 322MW Whitelee project south of Glasgow. The 140 turbine project would provide enough green energy to power 200,000 homes. [ more ]

Scottish Power is currently the largest provider of wind generated electricity in the United Kingdom.

Posted by Mark Anderson at 08:14 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Western Wind Energy (WNDEF.OB) announce that it has executed a formal turbine supply agreement with Mitsubishi Power Systems. Mitsubishi Power Systems will supply Western Wind Energy with an initial 15 one-megawatt MHIA 1000A wind turbine generators, for Western Wind Energy's 15-megawatt steel park wind project in Arizona for delivery of October of this year.

The turbine supply agreement further calls for the supply of up to an additional 900 megawatts of wind turbine generators for future projects. A delegation from Western Wind Energy will be traveling to Japan next month to inspect the new 2.4-megawatt Mitsubishi wind turbine generator that Western Wind hopes to showcase in North America. [ more ]

Posted by Mark Anderson at 09:13 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The global wind energy industry is expected to enjoy continued strong growth in coming years with total installed capacity seen more than tripling from current levels by 2014, an industry survey showed on Tuesday. Over the next eight years, international installed capacity is expected to increase to about 210,000 megawatts from today's installed total of about 59,000 megawatts, a study by the German Wind Energy Institute (DEWI) showed. [ more ]

Posted by Mark Anderson at 12:45 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

American Superconductor Corp. (AMSC) announced it has received a follow-on order for its proprietary PowerModule(TM)-based wind turbine generator control systems for 150 wind turbines from Windtec Systemtechnik GmbH (Windtec), a supplier of large wind turbine components and system technology, based in Klagenfurt, Austria. The PowerModule-based control systems will be utilized in the electrical equipment of wind turbine generators -- each rated at 1.5 megawatts -- which Windtec plans to ship to China in calendar 2006. AMSC expects to ship the PowerModule PM1000 power converters, which manage and stabilize electricity produced by wind turbine generators, to Windtec by the end of calendar year 2006. [ more ]

Posted by Mark Anderson at 08:11 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

German utility E.On AG launched a 29.1 billion euro ($34.72 billion) all-cash bid for ENDESA (ELE) on Tuesday, topping a previous offer from Gas Natural by more than 30 percent and threatening to disrupt carefully laid plans for Spanish power-market consolidation.

Endesa said in a statement that the E.On offer was "clearly" the better of the two, but added that it still did not adequately reflect Endesa's true value. [ more ]

Shares of Endesa were up 15% in yesterday's trading.

Posted by Mark Anderson at 08:06 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Maxwell Technologies (MXWL) announced that Enercon GmbH has placed a 1.5 million-unit purchase order for ultracapacitors for wind turbine blade pitch systems. Enercon currently uses BOOSTCAP® ultracapacitors for backup energy storage and power delivery in wind turbines models ranging in output from 300 kW to 6 MW.

Ulrich Neundlinger, Enercon's managing director of switching units, said that the company is expanding its use of ultracapacitors for blade pitch system backup power after initial deployments confirmed their significant advantages over traditional battery solutions. [ more ]

Posted by Mark Anderson at 09:32 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

"America is addicted to oil, which is often imported from unstable parts of the world"

Thanks to Mr. Bush's state of the union address last night, we should see some nice gains across the board in the Alternative Energy sector.

Some of the big winners may be the Ethanol companies like Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) and Pacific Ethanol, Inc. (PEIX).

The EnergyStockBlog.com has a nice write up on the potential for ADM. [ more ]

GreenCarCongress.com has a nice summary of the important parts of the speech.

In his State of the Union 2006 address, President Bush announced the Advanced Energy Initiative�a 22% increase in clean-energy research at the Department of Energy (DOE).

The Initiative is intended to focus on providing breakthroughs in two areas: power for homes and businesses; and transportation. [ more ]

Update: Well the market is now open and shares of ADM and PEIX are trading down. But shares of Fuel Cells and Solar companies are up.

Posted by Mark Anderson at 09:12 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Hydrogenics Corp (HYGS) announced that they have been awarded a contract for over EUR 500,000 to deliver a hydrogen station to Gas Natural SDG, a Spanish-based energy services multinational with approximately ten million customers in Spain, Latin America, Italy and France (www.gasnatural.com).

Gas Natural will use a Hydrogenics' HySTAT(TM)-A Hydrogen Station at the Sotavento Galicia wind farm to produce up to 60 Nm3/hr of hydrogen. The hydrogen will be used to fuel an internal combustion engine generator, which in turn will supply electricity to the electric grid. [ more ]

Posted by Mark Anderson at 11:21 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Hydrogenics Corp (HYGS) announced that the company was awarded a contract by Basin Electric Power Cooperative, to supply an electrolyzer-based hydrogen refuelling station for installation in Minot, N.D. In addition to the core electrolyzer module, Hydrogenics is supplying compression, storage and dispenser equipment as part of the contract. The station is one of the first United States-based hydrogen fueling stations to use electricity from a wind power resource to produce hydrogen from water, in this case using electricity generated by wind resources either owned or contracted by Basin Electric. The hydrogen produced will be used to refuel hydrogen-powered vehicles, demonstrating a linkage between wind power and vehicle refueling. [ more ]

Posted by Mark Anderson at 07:38 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

FPL Group Inc (FPL) is currently in the advanced stages of negotiations to acquire Constellation Energy Group (CEG). An FPL-Constellation merger would create a giant East Coast-based utility with a market capitalization, based on Tuesday's closing stock prices, of $26.97 billion - $16.93 billion for FPL and $10.04 billion for Constellation.

Constellation Energy Group is based out of Baltimore Maryland and is the holding company for Baltimore Gas and Electric. They also have an extensive presence in the wholesale power supply and generation business. The Power Generation Division currently uses 4.6% alternative sources for power generation.

FPL has a strong commitment to alternative energy generation and is one of the largest utilities in the US utilizing extensive wind farms. CEG has a large footprint in Nuclear power generation and the combination of these two companies would make a top-tier producer of power generation for the East coast markets and a potential of 30,000 megawatts of power generation. CEG also gives FPL the ability to enter the wholesale supply side of the power generation business.

Typically you would see shares of the acquiring company down and shares of the acquired company up with this type of announcement. The market is liking this potential merger and CEG is up over 7% and FPL is also trading up 0.6% this morning.

Posted by Mark Anderson at 10:01 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

ENDESA (ELE) reported a 52 percent increase in third-quarter profit Wednesday and said it will distribute almost 2.12 billion euros ($2.48 million) in dividends for the year. The company said it will pay out nearly 2 euros ($2.34) a share in dividends for 2005. [ more ]

The increased dividend is an attempt to ward off a hostile takeover attempt by Gas Natural. The stock way paying an almost 4% dividend yield and this move takes the divendend up near 12% with the special payout.

Today I purchased the second third of my planned holdings for ELE in the mutual fund.

Posted by Mark Anderson at 01:20 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Xantrex Technology Inc. (XTX.TO) received an order for wind converters valued at $12M from Clipper Windpower Technology Inc. of Carpinteria, CA for delivery in 2006. This order exceeds the framework agreement announced on September 15, 2005 for approximately $10 million over two years. These Xantrex converters will be used in Clipper's new 2.5 megawatt Liberty wind turbine. [ more ]

I spent sometime talking with the people at the Xantrex booth at the recent solar conference and they have a firm commitment to the Alternative energy marketplace. They have also started a concentrated effort to release new products into the marketplace and they are proving it with a steady stream of new press releases. I have been using one of their power inverters for some time in my car to power various electronic devices and the products are high quality and work well.

My main problem with the company is its difficult to purchase shares of the company in the US since they only trade in Toronto. People that I have spoken with at the company state they currently have no plans to move to a US exchange. Xantrex is a company I want to own for a long term hold. The stock is very attractive under the $6 (CDN) level and has some near term support at $5 (CDN). I make all my stock transactions online and a purchase of a foreign stock requires that I would have to call in the purchase order which usually doesn't give you the flexibility to toy with your buy limit orders. This also means the transaction costs are going to be much higher for me. But I do believe owning this company in the future may be worth the inconvenience and extra costs.

Posted by Mark Anderson at 08:55 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Distributed Energy Systems Corp (DESC) has been awarded a contract to install and commission three additional NorthWind 100® wind turbines for Anchorage-based Alaska Village Electric Cooperative (AVEC). The contract brings the total number of turbines AVEC has purchased from Northern Power to 10, representing what is believed to be the largest investment in wind turbines made in Alaska in a single year.

The Northern Power Products division will also supply and install wind turbine Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems for the villages of Toksook Bay and Kasigluk. These systems will leverage Northern Power's SmartView® software, which will allow AVEC to monitor and control the wind turbines in both villages, as well as monitor the overall power generation system assets. The combined value for the turbine sale, the SCADA systems and other value-add services is $1.8 million. [ more ]

DESC is up over 1.5% in pre-market trading this morning. The stock has been moving nicely and it seems to have bounced off the 50 day moving average which confirms that it is still in a nice uptrend.

I'm still wary to commit new money to the stock market right now. If the general market was acting better, I would probably be a buyer of the stock at this point.

Posted by Mark Anderson at 08:54 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Scottish Power plc (SPI) is an electrical generation and distribution company primarily focused in the UK. They have two subsidiaries that are based in the US, PacificCorp and PPM Energy. They are currently in the process of trying to sell PacificCorp to Berkshire Hathaway.

PPM Energy is a company with extensive wind energy development and generation. Scottish Power also has extensive wind farms in Scotland and Europe. They are also developing off-shore wind power of the Welsh coast.

This stock has been moving strong recently and it looks like it is building a base at the $40 level. I purchased a 1/3 stake of this stock for the mutual fund at a price of $27.00. I will purchase additional thirds on any pull backs to lower my cost basis. This stock also pays a 4% dividend.

ENDESA (ELE) generates and distributes energy in Spain, Italy, France, and Portugal, and Latin America. They have extensive wind farms in Spain. They are currently trying to fight a hostile bid by one of its competitors Gas Energy. The stock currently pays a 3.5% dividend. Endesa has forumulated a plan to increase the dividend payouts to 7 Billion Euros over the next 5 years to combat the hostile bid. They will accomplish this by disposing of non-strategic assets to generate the future dividend payouts. Full details about their plans can be found on the Endesa website [ pdf ].

The stock has been moving strong over the last month and I have been waiting for a pull back to enter the stock. That pull back has never materialized and I wanted to step into this position before it gets away from me. I'm purchasing a 1/3 stake in the mutual fund at $40.91. I will purchase remaining thirds on any pullbacks from here.

With these purchases I'm now at a 50% invested position in the mutual fund. My plans are to still try to maintain a conservative stock entry strategy as I get closer to 100% invested in the mutual fund. I'm already at an 80% invested amount in my personal portfolio. I will be selling some of my stake in PBW to gain cash as I find new names I want to own in my personal portfolio.

Posted by Mark Anderson at 09:50 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Distributed Energy Systems Corp (DESC) has been profiled on Forbes.com.

Kenneth Reid, editor of Spear's Security Industry Analyst, recommends buying shares of Distributed Energy Systems. The Wallingford, Conn.-based company creates and delivers a variety of products for the alternative and decentralized energy markets.
. . .
The story of Distributed Energy and other alternative-energy players is a long-term one, say bulls like Reid. With the surge in oil prices this year, the story is resonating with investors. Distributed Energy shares are up 333% in the past year, trading around $8 after hitting a 52-week (intraday) high of $8.09 on Sept. 27. [ more ]

Forbes also has a short DESC video that gives some additional information about this stock.

My take on DESC is that it is a great company to own. I have owned it in the past and sold it with a nice profit in early August. I purposely tried to liquidate the majority of my positions in August in anticipation of blogging about all my portfolio purchases. Many of the names I owned are back on my watchlist and I have been looking for a good re-entry point for a long term hold on this stock. It is currently sitting at a 52 week high and it showing signs that it getting over bought. The Forbes profile hit the net early this morning, and DESC is currently trading above $8 pre-market. Right now I will continue to watch the stock and it is one my short list for purchase. I just want to wait a couple of days to see how the stock price action behaves.

Posted by Mark Anderson at 09:02 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The Alameda County Board of Supervisors approved renewal permits held by wind power companies like FPL Group Inc (FPL), and other wind generators to produce electricity at the 584-megawatt Altamont Pass wind farm, one of the world's largest wind energy centers. [ more ]

One key stipulation for the renewal is that the wind power companies need to replace over 5,000 windmills over the next 13 years with 500 more efficient turbines with high blades that spin above the birds' flight paths. This may seem like a win for the wind farm utilities, but it comes with a price. They expect this overhaul to cost them over $500 million over the next 13 years.

The true winners of this news are the companies that provide the new turbines and blades (i.e. GE Energy and Vestas) .

Posted by Mark Anderson at 03:05 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

FPL Group Inc (FPL) places order from Siemens to build wind turbines for FPL. They expect to install the new turbines in 2006. [ more ]

Posted by Mark Anderson at 04:18 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Hydrogenics Corp (HYGS) is a developer of fuel cell technology and hydrogen generation. They are also working with wind farm technology in the generation of hydrogen. Back in January of this year they successfully completed the purchase of Stuart Energy which compliments their product portfolio.

Shares of the stock have been under pressure for the last couple of months due to missed expectations on Q1 revenue results. There is also some major concern about an increase in product backlog.

In August, HYGS issued their most recent quarterly earnings and are attempting to reassure the shareholders that they are making great strides in incorporating the Stuart Energy division and also working on fulfilling the backlog of orders.

"We believe that the increase in revenues, combined with synergies derived from the Stuart Energy acquisition, will accelerate our path to profitability," continues Rivard. "All in all, we believe we are delivering on the commitment we made at the beginning of the year to achieve renewed financial performance for our shareholders by applying discipline and sound business fundamentals." [ more ]

I have successfully owned this name in the past with some nice gains in one of my trading portfolios. Right now I feel it is poised to move to the upside for a long term uptrend and I purchased shares in both my personal portfolio and my Marketocracy mutual fund portfolio at an average price of $4.00. The stock is currently sitting right against some resistance at the $4.00 and I think it has the momentum to take it out to the upside. The stock has some nice support at the $3.50 level and I would be willing to average back down if it comes back down to this price level.

There are also some other Marketocracy gurus adding this stock to thier portfolios as well, which may (or may not) be a good sign. [ more ]

For those of you that are adventurous, the HYGS MAR 2006 5 Calls look good here if you can get a fill in the $0.50-$0.60 range. There is very little open interest for options on this stock and getting a fill at a decent price may be difficult.

DISCLAIMER: I am not a registered investment advisor. The information and trades that I provide here are for informational purposes only and are not a solicitation to buy or sell any of these securities. Investing involves substantial risk and you should evaluate your own risk levels before you make any investment. Past results are not an indication of future performance. Please take the time to read the full disclaimer here.

Posted by Mark Anderson at 12:10 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

ENDESA (ELE) will have 21.5 MW of new wind capacity in the region of Castilla y Leon once its cogeneration and renewable energy subsidiary (ENDESA Cogeneracion y Renovables: ECYR) completes the construction of the Valpardo wind farm in the town of Navalperal de Pinares (Avila), located in the central part of the Malagon mountain range. The farm is scheduled to start up at the end of this year. [ more ]

Posted by Mark Anderson at 11:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The Carballeira wind farm, constructed by ENDESA (ELE) subsidiary, Endesa Cogeneracion y Renovables (ECYR), has been connected to the grid. This completes the construction of the group's largest wind farm complex, which also includes the Bustelo and Faladoira plants, located in the area of As Pontes (A Coruna) and Xermade (Lugo). The wind farm complex has total installed capacity of 161 MW and is connected to the grid through via the Tesouro substation in As Pontes.

The Carballeira wind farm, the last to be completed, has installed capacity of 24.42 MW, with 37 660kW wind turbines expected to produce 65,580 MW of energy a year. This would supply the consumption needs of 13,780 households and reduce crude imports by 100,125 barrels. [ more ]

Posted by Mark Anderson at 11:58 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Universal Communication Systems Inc (UCSY) announced that the company has developed a new, exclusive energy application utilizing "wind power" technology for energy co-generation for use with AirWater machines. [ more ]

Posted by Mark Anderson at 09:08 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

California's push to add more renewable electricity to the state's power grid is pressuring wind power developers to reduce the number of birds killed each year at one of the biggest wind farms in the United States.
Wind companies like FPL Group Inc (FPL) , wildlife groups and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service are trying to agree on ways to lower the risk for birds flying into big spinning turbine blades at the 584-megawatt Altamont Pass wind center in rolling hills about 50 miles east of San Francisco. [ more ]

Posted by Mark Anderson at 09:03 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

ENDESA (ELE) has signed an agreement with Sacyr Vallehermoso for the acquisition of 100% of the share capital of Portuguese company Finerge Gestao de Proyectos Energeticos, S.A. (FINERGE), umbrella company of a holding which operates wind farms and co-generation plants in Portugal. The deal hinges on the pertinent authorisation from the Portuguese anti-trust authorities.

The company, which has 43 subsidiaries, owns projects already in operation whose installed capacity is 60 MW and projects under construction or in the pipeline with a capacity of 260 MW. [ more ]

Posted by Mark Anderson at 08:43 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

FPL Group Inc (FPL) announced that it has begun commercial operation at its 106.5-megawatt (MW) Weatherford Wind Energy Center, located near Weatherford, Oklahoma, and plans to expand the project by 40.5 MW. This brings the total capacity of the Weatherford Wind Energy Center to 147 megawatts. Construction on the expansion will begin in the near future and is expected to be completed by year end. [ more ]

Posted by Mark Anderson at 07:42 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

FPL Group Inc (FPL) The U.S. wind energy industry will add as much as 2,500 megawatts of new production capacity in 2005, more than previously expected, the American Wind Energy Association said on Tuesday.

A megawatt of wind capacity can provide roughly the amount of electricity needed by 250 to 300 households, so the new forecast translates into the equivalent of power for some 700,000 homes, the group said. [ more ]

Posted by Mark Anderson at 08:21 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Magnetek Inc. (MAG) announced a reorganization of the Company's operating structure to accelerate growth in alternative energy markets. "Alternative energy products currently account for less than 5% of our quarter-billion-dollar annual revenue," said Magnetek chief executive Andrew Galef. "But that revenue has the potential to increase exponentially over the next few years, based on double-digit growth rates in alternative energy markets and proprietary power conversion products that we are now introducing for solar and wind power markets." [ more ]

Posted by Mark Anderson at 08:23 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Hydrogenics Corp (HYGS) announced that Hydrogenics and Prince Edward Island Energy Corporation will lead a consortium of industry and government partners to develop Canada's first wind-hydrogen village demonstration - the Prince Edward Island (PEI) Wind-Hydrogen Village Project. This multi-faceted initiative will demonstrate, in real-life and in real-time, how wind energy and hydrogen technologies can work together to offer clean and sustainable energy solutions across a wide range of applications. [ more ]

Posted by Mark Anderson at 08:18 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

FPL Group Inc (FPL) announced it will build, own and operate a new wind farm in Texas, the Horse Hollow Wind Energy Center, to be located in Taylor County, Texas.

The 220.5-megawatt Horse Hollow Wind Energy Center will be comprised of 147 1.5-megawatt wind turbines spread over a 22,500 acre site approximately 15 miles southwest of Abilene. Initial site work on the project is underway with full-scale construction expected to begin in the next few weeks and be completed no later than December 2005. [ more ]

Posted by Mark Anderson at 11:14 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Renewable energy like wind and solar power and hydrogen fuel cells could blossom into a $100 billion a year global market in less than a decade as technology costs fall, according to a study.

The combined market for "green" sources of energy has already grown 68 percent since 2002 to more than $16 billion last year, according to Clean Edge, a research and publishing firm based in California. [ more ]

You can view and download the complete Clean-Energy Trends report at the following link. [ more ]

Posted by Mark Anderson at 04:04 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

ENDESA (ELE) has received authorisation to build and start up new wind farms and mini hydro plants this year, requiring an investment of Euro 286 million. The start-up of these projects, part of ENDESA's Strategic Plan, will add 277 MW to ENDESA's generation capacity, 252 MW in wind (for a Euro 250 million) and 25 MW in mini hydro capacity (for an investment of around Euro 60 million).

Facilities already under construction and expected to come on stream in 2005 include the wind farms at Pena Ventosa and Chan do Tenon in Galicia, Las Hoyuelas in Castilla La Mancha and P.E. Saso Plan in Aragon, representing an investment of Euro 144 million and overall capacity of 146 MW. [ more ]

Posted by Mark Anderson at 10:21 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Western Wind Energy (WND.V) is pleased to announce the execution of a formal power purchase agreement with the Southern California Edison Company ("Edison") for the procurement by Edison, from the Company, of up to 120 megawatts of wind powered electrical generation. The agreement is for a period of 20 years.

The location of the wind energy facilities will be the famous Tehachapi Pass Wind Park. Tehachapi Pass is the site to over 4,600 wind turbine generators delivering over 1.4 trillion watt hours of energy from 670 megawatts of name-plate capacity. [ more ]

Posted by Mark Anderson at 09:34 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

FPL Group Inc (FPL) announced today that it has been recognized on the first, annual list of Global 100 Most Sustainable Corporations in the World. FPL Group, Inc. is one of only 100 companies chosen from 2000 of the world's largest corporations whose sustainability performance falls within the top five percent of their business sector. The company is part of a select group of only 20 U.S.-based companies included in this special recognition. FPL Group was selected based on its ability to manage the triple bottom line - society, environment and economy. [ more ]

Posted by Mark Anderson at 08:39 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

FPL Group Inc (FPL) wind farms continue to help meet the growing need for pollution-free electricity while providing new economic opportunities for local communities and states across the United States. In 2004, FPL Energy's 43 wind farms produced more than 6.6 million megawatt hours of electricity for local utilities, municipalities, power marketers and rural electric cooperatives across the country, or enough power to serve more than 500,000 average homes. FPL Energy estimates that it would have taken the equivalent of 3.8 million tons of coal, or 32,579 train cars of coal, 10.5 million barrels of oil or more than 45.1 billion cubic feet of natural gas, or enough to fill the Louisiana Superdome 360,844 times, to generate the same amount of electricity as its wind farms. [ more ]

Posted by Mark Anderson at 11:23 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

FPL Group Inc (FPL) wind farms continue to help meet the growing need for pollution-free electricity in Pennsylvania while providing new economic opportunities for local communities and the state.

FPL Energy's five Pennsylvania wind farms, with a capacity of 129 megawatts, are capable of generating electricity for nearly 37,000 homes. In 2004, the wind farms offset generation emissions totaling about 192,000 tons of carbon dioxide; nearly 1,400 tons of sulfur dioxide and more than 300 tons of nitrogen oxide. [ more ]

Posted by Mark Anderson at 12:05 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Distributed Energy Systems Corp (DESC) announced preliminary estimated full-year 2004 revenues of approximately $21 million, and preliminary estimated fourth quarter revenues of approximately $10 million. The Company also announced that its backlog of signed project and product commitments at year-end is approximately $25 million. This figure represents signed contracts covering energy projects for commercial and industrial clients, as well as in-house manufactured systems, including hydrogen generators and wind turbines. [ more ]

Posted by Mark Anderson at 11:58 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

ENDESA (ELE) will have another 78.4 MW of new wind power capacity in Andalusia once subsidiary Endesa Cogeneracion y Renovables (ECYR) completes its new wind complex in Tarifa, Cadiz province, comprising the five wind farms of La Manga, Rio Almodovar, El Ruedo, El Gallego and Cortijo de Iruelas.

The complex is wholly contained in the town of Tarifa, and has 98 wind turbines: 42 Made AE-56 and the other 56 Made AE-59, both designs being 60 metres tall with unit generating capacity of 800 kV. The complex required an investment of Euro 75 million. [ more ]

Posted by Mark Anderson at 04:07 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

USAToday.com has an article discussing the perils of wind energy and the ecological effects to local bird wildlife. [ more ]

After years of study but little progress reducing bird kills, environmentalists have sued to force turbine owners to take tough corrective measures. The companies, at risk of federal prosecution, say they see the need to protect birds.

The biggest concern is the Altamont pass near San Francisco.

Altamont Pass bird kills have been known for years, but turbine owners and federal regulators ignored them except to urge more research, says Miller of the Center for Biological Diversity. But a California Energy Commission study in August found bird fatalities much higher than had been thought and laid out steps to limit them.

This is just more fuel to the fire to get the Altamont pass upgraded. The newer technology and taller structures have decreased bird fatality. These future upgrades will reflect positively to the Wind generation stocks.

Posted by Mark Anderson at 02:32 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

BusinessWeek has written an article about the investment opportunities available int he Alternative Energy marketplace.

Renewable energy is booming. The use of solar power has been growing by more than 30% a year and, except for a hiccup in 2004 -- when Congress delayed renewing a tax credit -- so has wind power. Ethanol is heading for record production levels. And there's no end in sight, given high oil and gas prices, an increasing number of government mandates and incentives, and the first real steps toward tackling global warming. Clean Edge Inc., a research and strategy consultant, predicts that the total clean-energy market will grow to $92 billion by 2013, about seven times its current size of $13 billion. "The investment community is starting to see real opportunities," says Ron Pernick, co-founder of Clean Edge. [ more ]

This article mentions many of the stocks followed on this website.

Posted by Mark Anderson at 08:33 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Northern Power Systems, a subsidiary of Distributed Energy Systems Corp (DESC) has been awarded an approximately $800,000 contract for eight hybrid TelePower(TM) remote power systems. The 48VDC systems will supply power for a critical U.S. military application in Alaska.

Each of the eight Northern TelePower systems will generate power through a combination of renewable sources consisting of a photovoltaic (PV) array with a single wind turbine and a pair of Thermo Electric generators to be used when the renewable sources are not adequate. The systems are designed to reliably operate year round in the harsh Alaskan environment, particularly during the extremely cold winter months. [ more ]

Posted by Mark Anderson at 08:25 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

FPL Group Inc (FPL) scored the highest ranking in the U.S. and second globally in a World Wildlife Fund (WWF) report that analyzed 72 of the world's leading power companies reviewing current use of available technologies to reduce C02 emissions, as well as clear commitments made for future improvements. The new report said FPL is a bright spot in the U.S. rankings. The WWF says FPL Group scored high due to leadership in developing wind energy and a commitment to dramatically improving power plant efficiency. [ more ]

Posted by Mark Anderson at 09:51 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

ENDESA (ELE) has started up the Estoncala, Jupiter and Saturno wind farms, located in the north of the province of Soria, in the Sierras of Alba and Montes Claros, near the villages of Santa Cruz de Yanguas, Villar del Rio, Vizmanos, Las Aldehuelas and Arevalo de la Sierra.

The three wind farms have a combined installed capacity of 47.2 MW and are equipped with 59 GAMESA AE-56 wind turbines, made in Spain and with a unit capacity of 800 kW each. [ more ]

Posted by Mark Anderson at 02:23 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

As mentioned in a previous entry, the Pennsylvania legislature passed SB1030, the Alternative Energy Bill, on November 20, 2004 which will require a total of 18% of Pennsylvania's electricity to be generated by alternative energy sources by 2020.

The standard requires 8% of Pennsylvania's electricity to be generated by so-called "Tier I" renewable sources of energy by 2020. Tier I resources include solar, wind, geothermal and biomass. The standard also requires 10% of the state's electricity to come from a second category of resources that include waste coal, integrated combined coal gasification technology, municipal solid waste, large-scale hydro, demand-side management and distributed generation systems. [ more ]

Posted by Mark Anderson at 09:59 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Right on the heels of Colorado passing Amendment 37, Pennsylvania is waiting for State House approval on the passage of their own legislation mandating clean energy production. [ more ]

This new bill states that by 2020, utilities would be required to provide 18 percent of the electricity used in Pennsylvania from alternative sources, like wind, solar and waste coal. Wind should be the big winner for this region.

Posted by Mark Anderson at 02:04 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Spanish Energy producer ENDESA (ELE) will have 75.9 MW of additional wind power in Galicia, now that its subsidiary, ECYR, (ENDESA Cogeneracion y Renovables) has completed construction of the Fonsagrada-Punago wind power complex in the Province of Lugo.

ENDESA currently has operative installed wind energy capacity totalling 999 MW, with an additional 163 MW under construction, giving it a national market share of 16.6 %. Year to date, the Company has brought 4 wind parks into operation, representing 77 MW, while it has commenced construction on 7 new farms, which will add 163 MW to current installed capacity. [ more ]

This company's chart is beautiful and it has been added to my watch list. I would be a buyer of this stock below $19. It has been trading in an upward channel for many years. While this is not my typical AltE stock, they are making a strong move into that space.

Posted by Mark Anderson at 01:29 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Colorado voters have approved an amendment requiring utilities to get part of their electricity from the sun, wind or plant and animal waste.

The amendment requires the state's seven largest utilities to get a portion of their retail electricity sales from renewables, beginning with 3 percent in 2007 and climbing to 10 percent by 2015. Four percent of the renewables should be solar sources. [ more ]

Posted by Mark Anderson at 08:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

FPL Group Inc (FPL) announced it will build, own and operate a new wind farm in Texas, the Callahan Divide Wind Energy Center, to be located in Taylor County, Texas.

The 114-megawatt Callahan Divide Wind Energy Center will be comprised of 76 1.5-megawatt wind turbines spread over a 6,000 acre site approximately 12 miles southwest of Abilene. Construction is expected to begin in the next few weeks and be completed no later than the first quarter 2005. [ more ]

Posted by Mark Anderson at 08:47 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

British Telecom has announced a three-year plan to get all of its energy needs from renewable sources - the biggest such project in the world. The electricity used, worth hundreds of millions of pounds, could power a city the size of Nottingham. Renewable sources of energy include wind, wave and solar power, rather than using fossil fuels like oil or coal. [ more ]

Posted by Mark Anderson at 09:27 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Northern Power Systems, Inc., a subsidiary of Distributed Energy Systems Corp (DESC) has been awarded a $1.9 million contract from Anchorage-based Alaska Village Electric Cooperative (AVEC) for seven of Northern's NorthWind® 100 wind turbines.

The advanced-design 100 kW wind turbines will generate renewable electric power for 3 remote communities, in western Alaska, served by AVEC. As part of the contract award, Northern will provide on-site installation and commissioning services of the turbines in the harsh Alaskan environment. It is the first stage in a broader effort through which AVEC will be integrating wind into more of the 51 isolated Alaskan communities to which it currently provides electric power. [ more ]

Posted by Mark Anderson at 08:57 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The Production Tax Credit (PTC) -- a critical factor in stimulating the growth of the US wind industry -- is very likely to be expanded to include geothermal energy as part of the JOBS tax package (H.R. 4520, the "American Jobs Creation Act of 2004") just approved by a Congressional Conference Committee. [ more ]

Posted by Mark Anderson at 09:08 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

In order to take full advantage of the recent Congressional extension of the federal Production Tax Credit (PTC) for wind generation, Xcel Energy yesterday filed a request with the Colorado Public Utilities Commission to further expedite a company bidding process for new wind power in the state.

On Aug. 11, 2004, the Colorado Public Utilities Commission gave Xcel Energy (XEL) permission to issue a "Request of Proposal" for up to 500 megawatts of renewable energy -- expected to primarily be wind -- under the company's overall resource planning process. The bidding process for this wind power began the following week and was to continue through Nov. 23, 2004. [ more ]

Posted by Mark Anderson at 09:17 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

TheStreet.com has a good write up about the new potential growth opportunities that are available in the Alternative Energy marketplace.

"With oil recently passing the $50 mark -- and expected to stay high -- some investors feel freshly tempted by alternative energy stocks. They view fuel cells and sunshine and windmills as ultimate replacements for diminishing supplies of fossil fuels. Thus, they tend to look past the alternative fuel industry's current losses and focus on future possibilities instead." [ more ]

The following companies are mentioned in this article:
Ballard Power (BLDP)
FPL Group Inc (FPL)
Fuelcell Energy Inc (FCEL)
Plug Power Inc (PLUG)

Posted by Mark Anderson at 06:39 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

U.S. power companies such as FPL Group Inc (FPL) that develop windmill farms will probably install a record number of turbines next year after Congress renewed the tax credit needed to make the plants cost effective.

Over a thousand new windmills, typically twenty stories high with three 40-foot blades, will crop up in fields in Oklahoma, ranches in Colorado and off the coast of Massachusetts. U.S. wind power will increase by more than the 1,687 megawatts built in 2003, said Christine Real de Azua, a spokeswoman for the American Wind Energy Association, a trade group in Washington. [ more ]

Posted by Mark Anderson at 09:16 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

First National Power Corporation (FNPR) in keeping with its commitment to becoming a leader in alternative energy sources is pleased to announce that on August 18, 2004, they conditionally agreed to work with an integral department of a large Northern Ontario city, with the intent being to collaborate on identifying alternative energy solutions. It is the intent that FNPR will joint venture with the City and possibly a local forestry concern on these projects. First National Power will act as a full partner, providing the funding, while the other partners will be the vendor of the equipment, the operator of the facility and the City, who are adding both the land for the deal and the connection to the grid through their wholly owned public utility commission. The deal being discussed with the local company in the forestry business will be similar in design, except that the local company will be the customer for the energy produced. [ more ]

Posted by Mark Anderson at 08:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

New York will dramatically boost its reliance on renewable energy sources like wind and water over the next nine years under a policy approved by state regulators Wednesday.

Clean energy advocates and state officials said the action by the state Public Service Commission places New York among the leaders nationwide in the development of renewable energy. It comes 20 months after Gov. George Pataki first called for a statewide standard that would encourage the production of environmentally friendly energy. [ more ]

Posted by Mark Anderson at 08:54 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Puget Sound Energy (PSD) recently signed a letter of intent with Houston-based Zilkha Renewable Energy to obtain 100-percent ownership of Zilkha's proposed 220-megawatt (MW) Wild Horse Wind Power Project located in the eastern part of Washington state's Kittitas County. It is the next step in an ongoing process to acquire renewable energy as part of a strategic plan to secure low-cost, long-term diverse resources for its growing customer base. [ more ]

Posted by Mark Anderson at 08:50 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Credit rater Standard & Poor said Tuesday wind energy could be a viable alternative to oil amid higher petroleum prices.

"Wind power remains often more expensive than traditional energy sources ... although it is becoming increasingly price competitive," said S&P credit analyst Jan Willem Plantagie. [ more ]

Posted by Mark Anderson at 08:49 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Just one year after launching its wind power program, nearly 9,000 OG&E Electric Services (OGE) customers have subscribed. About one-third of the subscribers have 100 percent of their electricity generated by wind, making OG&E's program one of the leaders in the United States. [ more ]

Posted by Mark Anderson at 09:04 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Nearly 36,000 jobs could be created in Texas if an increase in the national renewable energy standard were adopted, according to a new study released by the Union of Concerned Scientists.

A national standard would require that 20 percent of the country's electricity come from clean, renewable sources like wind, biomass and solar. [ more ]

Posted by Mark Anderson at 07:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

"Experts generally agree that our current reliance on fossil fuels is unsustainable. Already oil is near $50 per barrel, and the great millions of Chinese and Indians destined to take to the road in the next decades have not yet gotten behind the wheel."

This week Newsweek has written several special reports about alternative energy in all its forms. All of these reports can be found at the following link. [ more ]

Posted by Mark Anderson at 06:48 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Colorado House Speaker Lola Spradley, R-Beulah. and U.S. Rep. Mark Udall, D-Eldorado Springs, co-chairs of Amendment 37—the Renewable Energy Initiative—kicked-off their statewide campaign Thursday with stops throughout Colorado.

Amendment 37 would require 10 percent of Colorado's electricity be generated from renewable energy by 2015. The program is scaled beginning with a 3 percent requirement by 2007, 6 percent by 2011, and 10 percent by 2015. [ more ]

Posted by Mark Anderson at 05:48 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Hawaiian Electric Industries Inc (HE) has begun a one-year study to verify the wind energy potential on the ridges above the company's Kahe Power Plant. The study began in April of this year to monitor wind speed, direction and turbulence so the utility can confirm the area's potential to generate electricity with wind. Recently completed high-resolution wind resource maps indicate that the ridges above Kahe have one of Oahu's strongest wind resources. [ more ]

Posted by Mark Anderson at 05:34 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Worldchanging.com has an article about former soviet weapons designers working with Lawrence Berkely National Latoratory to design a new vertical axis wind turbine. [ more ]

Lawrence Berkeley helped form a new company, known as Wind Sail, to commercialize the new turbine for this Russian group.

Posted by Mark Anderson at 01:42 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Colorado is the first state in the nation to place renewable energy on its ballots, thanks in part to grassroots support from Summit County.

On Nov. 2, Colorado voters will decide whether to require the state's seven largest utilities to generate 10 percent of their electricity from environmentally-friendly sources like wind power by 2015. [ more ]

Posted by Mark Anderson at 05:04 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The Spanish government will increase the country’s wind-power target for 2010 to 20,000 megawatts, up 54 percent from the existing target of 13,000 MW, a government source said on Tuesday.

Spain ranks third in the world behind Germany and the United States with an installed wind power capacity of 6,200 MW, and the new goal aims to reduce Spain’s dependency on imported fuel. [ more ]

Posted by Mark Anderson at 04:48 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Xcel Energy (XEL) received approval from the Colorado Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) on Wednesday that could triple the company's wind power capacity in Colorado by 2007.

The CPUC approved Xcel Energy's proposal to acquire up to 500 megawatts (MW) of renewable energy resources, primarily wind, through an early competitive bidding process. This will allow the company to take advantage of any short-term renewal of the federal production tax credit (PTC) for wind energy, currently under consideration by Congress. The company also will study the impact that additional renewable resources will have on system reliability, operation, cost and transmission. [ more ]

Posted by Mark Anderson at 03:29 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The political climate for many of the western states are slowly starting to change to see the need for conversion to renewable energy sources. These test installations for Solar, Geothermal, and Wind energy are now producing real power for these areas. The key for us is to find the vendors that supply these installations. As the funding increases in these test beds, our growth will increase.

Here is a good article from the sfgate.com about the various western states initiatives.

"California's goal is to produce 20 percent of its electricity from renewable sources by 2017. New Mexico is aiming for 10 percent by 2011. Texas, despite its oil industry, has set a goal of 2.7 percent by 2009. A referendum headed for the Colorado ballot in November would require the state to get to 10 percent by 2015." [ full story at sfgate.com ]

Posted by Mark Anderson at 01:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

BusinessWeek.com discusses John Kerry's plan to increase alternative energy usage for the country.

John Kerry's blueprint for energy independence doesn't suffer from lack of ambition. In early August, he'll unveil an energy plan that he says can break America's addiction to foreign oil, revitalize the U.S. auto industry, help farmers and coal miners, fight global warming, and create jobs -- all for just $2 billion per year. "We can live in an America that is energy independent," Kerry promises. [ full story at businessweek.com ]

Posted by Mark Anderson at 05:53 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)