The Ethanol Industry’s Persecution Complex
If the Ethanol industry is going to rehabilitate its image, it needs to understand the issues. Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA In his opening remarks at the 25th annual, 2009 Fuel Ethanol Workshop, Mike Bryan, the CEO of BBI International called on the attendees to "Take back control of the industry's image." It's no secret that the ethanol industry is having problems, mostly, in my mind, due to a classic commodity squeeze: the industry has no pricing power either for its inputs (corn and natural gas,) or its products (ethanol, with a price which closely tracks gasoline.) ...
The Collapse of KiOR
The Inside True Story of a Company Gone Wrong, Part 5
by Jim Lane
In 2011, KiOR raised $150 million in its June IPO, claiming that it was generating yields of 67 gallons per ton in its Demo unit operations. But it was miles short of that.
In our previous installments, we have charted how KiOR moved from a promising early-stage technology to a public company with serious technological flaws that could have been fixed, but were ignored in what a senior team member speaking for the record, Dennis Stamires, characterized as a “reckless rush to commercial”.
By 2012, numerous KiOR staffers of...
Soladiesel Algae Fuel is a Monster Hit
Jim Lane Sales increase 35 percent at participating test sites and survey results reveal driver preference for algae-based Soladiesel over conventional fuels. In California, Propel Fuels and Solazyme (SZYM) announced that sales grew by 35 percent at Propel stations, offering SoladieselBD in a B20 blend during a 30-day retail pilot program, compared to non-test sites. The pilot was conducted at Propel’s Clean Fuel Points in Redwood City, San Jose, Berkeley, and Oakland. In addition, a follow-on consumer preference study with Propel’s customers found 92 percent of participants noted that they would be more likely to...
Biofuels M&A: 2017 Review and Outlook
by Bruce Comer, Ocean Park Advisors
More industry players chose to develop and build new capacity rather than buy plants
The North American biofuels industry experienced the fewest merger and acquisition transactions in recent history in 2017. There were only six M&A transactions, with a total estimated value of more than $100 million. They involved eight plants with 297 million gallons per year (MGPY) of production capacity. Half of these deals were for non-operating plants. A fourth deal was for a sub-scale demonstration plant. Contributing to the limited deal flow, two historically active acquirers, Green Plains and REG, did not close...
Exxon Could Be the Answer to America’s Energy Problems
Bill Paul In the wake of the massive Gulf of Mexico oil spill, it’s clear the U.S. needs to end its crude-oil addiction as much to protect its economy as the environment. To move the future forward, America needs one company in particular to come through on behalf of all Americans. In a cruel twist of fate, that company is ExxonMobil (XOM), which is working on arguably the most important energy-research project in the world today. Namely, a project to replace crude with genetically-modified algae that can be cost-effectively refined using existing refinery equipment. A year...
Gevo Soars: The Story Behind the Rise
by Jim Lane
What in the world has gone right with Gevo?
For years now, Gevo (Nasdaq:GEVO) has remained true to a vision of low-carbon, advanced renewable fuels, when so many others pivoted away to the world of ABF — Anything But Fuels. Some tried chemicals, cannabis, algae, natural gas, nutraceuticals, vegan foods — lately, protein has been all the rage. Gevo was one of the few true believers and paid the price of stock price punishment and near-extinction, for years.
While they weathered a debilitating patent battle with DuPont, until it settled and DuPont imploded. And the collapse of oil prices...
Oh, No! Renewable Energy Group CEO Departs
Oh, No! Renewable Energy Group CEO Departs
Intirim CEO plans no strategy change
Jim Lane
In Iowa, Renewable Energy Group (REGI) announced that Dan Oh has resigned as President and Chief Executive Officer and as a member of the Company’s Board of Directors. The resignation was effective July 3, 2017. The Board of Directors appointed long-time director Randolph (Randy) L. Howard as Interim President and Chief Executive Officer.
Howard is a 33-year veteran of Unocal, has been on the REG board since 2007 so, a familiar face at 67, may not be in the job for the long-haul, but a strong interim pick.
Oh...
The Cleantech IPO Window – Closed for business?
Jim Lane IPOs are struggling, all across cleantech – and the biofuels IPO queue is long and tiring. Why Kiwano countries may be in your future. And, what is a Kiwano country, anyway? So, amidst all the legislative and policy hoopla last week for advanced biofuels, including winning funding for an energy title in the US Senate’s Farm Bill and the release of the US Bioeconomy strategy, Enerkem’s IPO skidded to a halt and was withdrawn. Sure, it was very early stage – their first commercial wasn’t complete, the company wasn’t producing much in the way of revenue,...
Hack This Voice Mail: The Facts About Advanced Biofuels Capacity
Jim Lane Following a stinging WSJ editorial board critique on cellulosic biofuels, we leave a fact-filled voice mail for News Corp to hack. Meanwhile, Mascoma lands $80M and heads for scale. The Wall Street Journal editorial page writers recently published a stinging indictment of cellulosic biofuels. Bottom line: the Journal is offering the shortfall in the cellulosic biofuels pool (around 2% of the overall US Renewable Fuel Standard this year), as evidence that government mandates and subsidies do not work, and that the US government has shoveled a lot of money into advanced biofuels for nothing....
War With Iran? Buy Alternative Energy Stocks.
September is starting out as the month of speculation about a massive three day air strike on Iran. Is Bush ready to attack Iran while our troops are still trying to stabilize both Afghanistan and Iraq? In February, administration officials were denying it. The preparations now going on could simply be the stick part of a negotiating strategy; the bad cop to Russia's good cop. But Bush's chances of successful cooperation with Putin could be better. What if? If Bush does launch a massive three day air strike on Iran, what will that mean for alternative energy stocks? I...
Bargain Priced Alternative Energy Stocks
A review of Crystal Equity Research’s novel alternative energy indices found a number of companies that have delivered exceptional price appreciation over the last year. Several were reviewed in the recent post “Alternative Returns” on May 8th. Expectations for growth appeared to be driving the price movement, so the last post “Quest for Growth” featured four companies from the indices for which analysts have posted high growth predictions. Not unexpectedly some investors have already bid higher the stocks of those promising companies.
In this post we go back to the lists to find the companies with both high growth predictions and low price-earnings...
EPA Ups Renewable Diesel Mandate By 30%
Jim Lane Biodiesel pump photo via Bigstock What will bigger targets mean for producers, livestock, obligated refiners, and the diesel-using public? In Washington, the EPA issued its final rule for 2013 establishing 1.28 billion gallons as next year’s biomass-based diesel volume requirement under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), up from 1.0 billion gallons in 2012. “This 1.28 billion gallon level is in-line with what the EPA had originally proposed for 2013 dating back to last year,” commented Raymond James energy analyst Pavel Molchanov. “However, the...
Ethanol Producers Climb to New Highs
Shares of ethanol producers extended their recent rally Monday, as oil refiners continued their rush to substitute ethanol for a toxic gasoline additive before the summer driving season shifts into gear. The enthusiasm for ethanol is tied to the fate of methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), an additive mixed into gasoline to reduce pollution. However, studies have found that MTBE to be carcinogenic if it seeps into a water source. States are increasingly banning MBTE due to contamination concerns. Companies wishing to comply with new laws and worried about the potential for legal liability are...
Brew-ha-ha: Is Amyris’ Brazillian JV Over?
Jim Lane In a Brazilian securities filing, with respect to the Joint Venture between São Martinho and Amyris (AMRS), Sao Martinho reports “the non-achievement of certain contractual targets by Amyris, impacting the viability of the project. Thus, Sao Martinho decides not to approve the continuation of the Joint Venture Plant construction with the US company Amyris Inc. and its Brazilian subsidiary Amyris Brazil Ltda.” The company did not elaborate as to which contractural targets were not achieved by Amyris. In the filing, Sao Martinho added: “Amyris may provide new information regarding the project feasibility in...
Gevo and Butamax Make Peace
Jim Lane In Delaware and Colorado, Gevo (GEVO) and Butamax have entered into worldwide patent cross-license and settlement agreements, ending a patent dispute related to technologies for the production of bio-based isobutanol. This settlement ends all of the lawsuits and creates a new relationship between the companies, aimed at leveraging each other’s strengths and accelerating development of competitive supply for bio-based isobutanol. The cross-license agreement grants both parties patent licenses to all fields for isobutanol and is structured to develop robust and sustainable isobutanol markets. The license will be royalty bearing for Butamax in certain fields...
Everything Going for KiOR – Just Not Very Fast
Jim Lane What’s up with the cellulosic biofuels leader? Good news, bad news? If you have ever spent any time reading up on ion thrusters a next-gen engine technology that NASA recently employed on the Dawn spacecraft you might chuckle when you think of the plight of poor KiOR (KIOR). The good news about ion thrusters is that they can ultimately achieve speeds of 200,000 miles per hour, ten times that of the Space Shuttle. The bad news is that the Dawn took four days to accelerate from zero to 60 miles per hour. Yep, zero...


