Why We Can’t Take Our Eyes Off Gevo
Jim Lane So, feel the bioeconomy backbeat and let the music flow. AY-YI YI-YA AAAY, Gevo (GEVO) just can’t stop dancin’. (Whoops, that was Becky G‘s Can’t Stop Dancin’, not Gevo’s.) But there’s something so cool in that technology that we can’t take our eyes off the company and its progress, even though looking at the balance sheet can feel like watching a car crash in slow motion. This week, Gevo executed a series of moves including signing up its first direct customer for hydrocarbons for the proposed expansion of its Luverne, Minnesota plant. The highlight was a...
The Future Should Be Bright for Coal-to-Liquids
You are at a cocktail party somewhere, and, after joining a random group of revelers, you utter the following words: “If I say alternative fuel, what’s the very first thing that comes to mind…don’t even think about it, just answer!��? If this fiesta was taking place last night, 9 folks out of 10 would have answered “ethanol��?. The remaining 10% would have probably made-up a mix-bag of “biodiesel��?, “hydrogen��?, and, in extremely rare cases, “synthetic fuels��?, also known as synfuels. Ten years from now, I bet you anything that far more than 10% of the general public will be...
Gevo Switches Refinery Back to Ethanol: Amyris Redux?
Jim Lane Amyris redux, or fiscal caution in the ramp-up process? We look at the data, as the advanced isobutanol pioneer switches Luverne from isobutanol to ethanol amidst production shortfalls. In Colorado, Gevo (GEVO) announced that, while making significant progress towards economic production levels, the company does not now expect to achieve its desired year-end run rate – instead it has delayed hitting that target into 2013. “While we have made significant progress towards economic production levels,” said Gevo CEO Pat Gruber, “we have decided to optimize certain specific parts of our technology to further enhance bio-isobutanol...
Cosan’s Crush
by Debra Fiakas CFA Last week Cosan Limited (CZZ: NYSE) revealed a decision to delay the spin-off and recapitalization of its natural gas distribution network, COMGAS. Management cited unfavorable capital market decisions. Cosan has a mix of businesses, of which we have been most interested in its Raisen Energia sugar cane agriculture and ethanol production. Raisen is a joint venture with Royal Dutch Shell that was initiated in 2011. The operation squeezes over four million tons of sugar from cane grown in its fields and two billion liters of ethanol each year. The ethanol is sold through Shell’s...
Rapidly Growing Alternative Energy Companies
The last post highlighted several companies in the alternative energy, conservation and environment technology fields that have delivered exceptional price performance over the last year. Prospects for growth in sales or earnings appeared to be key drivers of the price movement. It makes sense to seek indicators of growth as cues for those companies that may become tomorrow’s price movers.
Crystal Equity Research’s novel alternative energy indices were a good place to go on a ‘quest for growth.’
Beach Boys Index - Biodiesel
The two analysts who publish estimates for Renewable Energy Group (REGI: Nasdaq)apparently expect a surge in growth in the current year followed by a leveling...
Novozymes Ignites Yeast Wars
Novozymes (Copenhagen:NZYM-B; OTC:NVZMY) moved into yeast this week with a new organism, Innova Drive.
It’s saccharomyces cerevisae — the workhouse yeast that has been powering wine fermentation since the days of Noah and the Ark. But here’s a new strain engineered to cut fermentation times up to two hours, and yield boosts of up to two percent.
A 2% yield increase and a 5% faster rate of production — let’s illustrate it — would mean something like 7.1 million gallons per year of more ethanol from the same standard 100 million gallon nameplate plant. Retailing at up to $10 million dollars, per year (yes,...
EPA Makes Sorghum an Advanced Biofuel Feedstock
by Debra Fiakas CFA Sorghum Bicolor photo by Matt Lavin Like the Fairy Godmother in Cinderella, the Environmental Protection Agency has waved a wand and given sorghum a new dress and slippers. Sorghum has been designated as an eligible feedstock under the Renewable Fuels Standards for production of advanced biofuel. Only biofuels produced from non-corn starch, sugar, or lingo-cellulosic biomass, which reduces carbon intensity by 50% or more from a gasoline baseline, qualify as ‘advanced.’ Sorghum qualifies for advanced fuel status as the result of a 53%...
A Disappointing Supreme Court Biofuel Decision. Why It’s Not Over Yet
By Jim Lane
The case
Last week’s decision stems from a May 2018 challenge brought against EPA in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Tenth Circuit by the Renewable Fuels Association, the National Corn Growers Association, National Farmers Union, and the American Coalition for Ethanol, working together as the Biofuels Coalition. The petitioners argued that the small refinery exemptions were granted in direct contradiction to the statutory text and purpose of the RFS and challenged three waivers the EPA issued to refineries owned by HollyFrontier Corp. and CVR Energy Inc.’s Wynnewood Refining Co.
The case is HollyFrontier Cheyenne Refining, LLC v....
The Year Of Living Disingenuously: KiOR
The Inside True Story of a Company Gone Wrong, Part 4
by Jim Lane
In 2011, KiOR raised $150 million in its June IPO, claiming that it was generating yields of 67 gallons per ton in its Demo unit operations. But it was miles short of that.
In our previous installments, we have charted how KiOR moved from a promising early-stage technology to a public company with serious technological flaws that could have been fixed, but were ignored in what a senior team member speaking for the record, Dennis Stamires, characterized as a “reckless rush to commercial”.
But so far, the company and...
Rentech’s Wood Saw Hits a Knot
by Debra Fiakas CFA Last week Rentech, Inc. (RTK: NYSE) revealed plans to idle its wood pellet production facility in Wawa, Ontario Canada. To operate efficiently the plant requires additional repairs and upgrades beyond the replacement of conveyors that was completed in Fall 2016. Beside the fact that the additional repairs were not included in the regular capital budget, Rentech management has apparently determined the expenditure is not economic given profits from Wawa. When Rentech reports financial results for the fourth quarter ending December 2016, shareholders will be treated to an asset impairment charge for the Wawa facility....
Earnings Roundup: Covanta, NFI Group, Green Plains Partners
by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA
Earnings Season Continues
Below are three more updates on second quarter earnings which I've been sharing with my Patreon supporters. If you'd like to support my writing and see those thoughts in a more timely manner, consider becoming a patron. becoming a patron.
For everyone else, I'm reprinting those thoughts below.
Covanta Earnings
(published August 2nd)
Waste to energy company Covanta Holding Corp (CVA) saw most of its business recovering towards the end of the second quarter. Management is reluctant to predict if the positive trend will continue into the third quarter and for the rest of the year, but...
Clearfish Research Profiles Pacific Ethanol (PEIX)
Pacific Ethanol (PEIX) is building a refinery in California for corn based ethanol production in the heart of the California agricultural and dairy land (the biggest agricultural and dairy producer in the country). The refinery is supposed to come on line in Q4 2006, and there are plans for 4 more subsequent refineries. As there is unlikely to be any increased ethanol demand in California (see background above), the supply capacity they are bringing online must be able to disrupt the current out-of-state supply and/or undercut the current prices. They are one of the biggest distributors of that alternate...
Brew-ha-ha: Is Amyris’ Brazillian JV Over?
Jim Lane In a Brazilian securities filing, with respect to the Joint Venture between São Martinho and Amyris (AMRS), Sao Martinho reports “the non-achievement of certain contractual targets by Amyris, impacting the viability of the project. Thus, Sao Martinho decides not to approve the continuation of the Joint Venture Plant construction with the US company Amyris Inc. and its Brazilian subsidiary Amyris Brazil Ltda.” The company did not elaborate as to which contractural targets were not achieved by Amyris. In the filing, Sao Martinho added: “Amyris may provide new information regarding the project feasibility in...
EPA Issues On-time, Robust Renewable Fuel Standard For 2017-18
Jim Lane In Washington, the US Environmental Protection Agency released the 2017 renewable fuel volume obligations (and the 2018 volume obligations for biomass-based diesel), with a strong push beyond what has been termed the “blend wall” and stimulating refiners to implement more “cost-effective changes at their refineries to blend more renewable fuel.” The agency finalized a total renewable fuel volume of 19.28 billion gallons, of which 4.28 BG is advanced biofuel and 311 million gallons is cellulosic biofuel. Thus, the implied RVO for conventional biofuels like corn ethanol will be 15BGup from the 14.8 BG proposed in May. “Renewable...
Biofuels & Biobased Earnings Roundup: Gevo
by Jim Lane
The Top Line. In Colorado, Gevo (GEVO) reported Q2 revenues of $9.4 million compared with $7.5 million in the same period in 2017. During the second quarter of 2018, revenues derived at the Luverne Facility related to ethanol sales and related products were $8.8 million, an increase of approximately $2.0 million from the same period in 2017. This was primarily a result of increased ethanol production and distiller grain prices in the second quarter of 2018 versus the same period in 2017. Non-GAAP cash EBITDA loss in the three months ended June 30, 2018 was $2.6 million, compared...
Ethanol Stocks Reviewed On Seeking Alpha
With oil and gasoline prices rising ever higher, investors are shifting attention to alternative energy stocks as a promising high-growth sector. A particular area of interest is ethanol stocks and forthcoming ethanol IPOs. Here are companies recently reviewed on Seeking Alpha Archers Daniels Midland Company (NYSE: ADM) Pacific Ethanol (PEIX) Xethanol (XTHN) VeraSun (VSE) MGP Ingredients (MGPI) Aventine Renewable Energy (AVR) Green Plains Renewable Energy (GPRE) Andersons Inc. (Nasdaq: ANDE) Veridium Corporation (VRDM)
