Divestment v Coronavirus: Ten Clean Energy Stocks for 2020 January Update
by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA
January 2020- where do I start? A year of market-shaking news in a month.
The Brink of War
The month started off with a literal bang when Trump decided that a good way to distract the public from his impeachment trial would be to try to start a war with Iran by assassinating one of Iran's top military leaders, Qassem Suleimani. A week later, the world and markets heaved a collective sigh of relief when Iran decided that their honor had been satisfied with two missile strikes on US bases. While Trump reported no casualties, Iran's Foreign...
10 Clean Energy Stocks for 2020: Rose Colored Covid
by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA
The stock market took off in November, fueled by very positive covid-19 vaccine news, and possibly also the prospect of a little competence and sanity in the White House. While both of these are unambiguously positive for the economy, I think investors are seeing the future through rose colored glasses.
Rose colored covid-19.
What a Biden Victory Means for the Economy
A Biden victory is good news in that we will finally have someone in the White House who will work to reduce the infection rate in the pandemic, rather than vacillating between wishful thinking and actively spurring...
10 Clean Energy Stocks for 2020: Updates on GPP, HASI, CVA
by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA
Market Decline
Last week I warned "The risks in today's stock market outweigh the possibility of future potential gains." Looks like we're seeing those risks manifest in short order. The last couple days' decline have me looking at a few stocks to start adding to my positions again, especially MiX Telematics (MIXT) discussed on June 2nd and Green Plain Partners (GPP), discussed below.
Note that this pullback could easily be very early days of a much larger market decline. We might even see the market fall far enough to test the March lows... any of my buying...
Ten Clean Energy Stocks for 2020: Trades
by Tom Konrad Ph.D., CFA
Four weeks ago, I predicted that the 12% market correction we had seen would turn into a true bear market. Bear markets are often defined as a decline of more than 20% for the major market indexes, but I find it more useful to focus on long term changes in investor sentiment.
What I did not predict was just how severe the effect of the coronovirus shutdown would be on the economy. I thought we would need the combined of the effect of the shutdown and investors re-assessing their risk tolerance to bring us into full...
10 Clean Energy Stocks for 2021: Diversification
by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA
Rounding out the discussion of the stocks in my 10 Clean Energy Stocks for 2021 list are the two that don’t fit either of the themes I highlighted for 2021: Picks and Shovels or a Possible Yieldco Boom. Both help with diversification, both in terms of their industry and geography.
MiX Telematics (MIXT) was retained from the Ten Clean Energy Stocks for 2020 list because I expect its prospects to improve rapidly as the world comes out of covid lockdowns. The global vehicle telematics provider has a large number of its customers among mass transit, logistics,...
Ten Clean Energy Stocks For 2019: Still Party Time
by Tom Konrad Ph.D., CFA
2019 has become another blockbuster year for the Ten Clean Energy Stocks model portfolio and, to a lesser extent clean energy stocks and the broad stock market as well. I'm frankly surprised to see the party continuing. The continued spiking of the metaphorical punch bowl by the Federal Reserve with interest rate cuts certainly has a lot to do with it. I had expected those cuts to be both fewer and less effective.
Which all goes to show that it's always a good idea to hedge one's bets in the stock market. At least in part...
10 Clean Energy Stocks for 2020: June Update
by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA
The coronavirus pandemic no longer has the United States by its financial center throat, the New York City area, but is instead is now gnawing ravenously at its arms and legs. In June, the stock market seems to be just starting to get a clue that this is also a bad thing, leading to a month of volatility and general consolidation.
Europe, in a display of relative competence, has been much more effective than the US at getting the pandemic beast under control, and so investors looking for safe havens might do well to look there. ...
Four Picks and Shovels Stocks
by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA
The last three months of 2020 brought an explosion in clean energy stock prices.
Solar stocks (as measured by the Invesco Solar ETF (TAN), nearly tripled. So did the Invesco Wilderhill Clean Energy ETF (PBW), which includes a broader spectrum of companies. Wind stock rose 61%, and even the relatively sedate Yieldcos were up 32%. The stars of the last half of 2020 was undoubtedly Tesla (TSLA, up 246%) and other electric vehicle stocks.
Money Flows Out of Fossil Fuels and Into Clean Energy
I believe that the cause of the current rise in stock prices is largely...
10 Clean Energy Stocks: Returns Through February/ Poll
by Tom Konrad Ph.D., CFA
I'm experimenting with how to display the returns of the 10 Clean Energy Stocks model portfolio. My Patreon supporters seem fairly evenly split between the two options show below, so I'm opening the poll up to my broader readership.
You can see the two most popular options below (with real return data through the end of February) and take the poll here.
Comments are welcome as well.
DISCLOSURE: Long all stocks in the model portfolio.
Finding a Bottom and Model Portfolio First Half Returns
By Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA
Even as the broad market rose, the start of 2021 was brutal for clean energy stocks. The sector experienced a bubble in late 2020 and January this year as optimism grew that we finally had a President who understands the magnitude of the climate problem and has committed to do something about it. The bubble also grew from the great hope that with the presidency and slim majorities in both houses of congress, he would actually be able to get his agenda through.
That might have happened if the Senate Republicans were interested in governing and...
Ten Clean Energy Stocks For 2018: Second Quarter Earnings
Tom Konrad Ph.D., CFA
July and August saw some mild recovery for the stock market after a difficult first half of 2018. Clean energy income stocks continue to lag the broader market, but my Ten Clean Energy Stocks model portfolio has managed to maintain its lead over its broad market benchmark.
Through August 31st, the model portfolio is up 7.5%, compared to its broad dividend income benchmark SDY, which is up 5.3%. Its clean energy income benchmark YLCO is down 1.2, even after dividend income. The private portfolio I manage, the Green Global Equity Income Portfolio (GGEIP), is slightly behind the...
Our Blue Chip Alternative Energy Stock List
The market has fallen sharply, and Solar stocks have fallen even more following rumors that Congress will pass the Energy Bill without the Production Tax Credit or Investment Tax Credit. Given this volatility and Renewable Energy's reputation for profitless startups, now might seem like an excellent time for a risk adverse investor to abandon the sector altogether. Not so. Even if all tax credits and other incentives for Renewable Energy were to be removed, the underlying drivers of Alternative Energy remain firmly in place: Rising energy prices and decreasing reserves, the need to reduce our Greenhouse gas emissions to avoid...
10 Green Energy Gambles for 2009
The credit crunch made me reassess my investing strategy last September. First, my expectation of the lack of availability of credit for companies without reliable cash flow led me to sell several early stage and troubled companies. Second, my experience of attempting to re-orient my portfolio in a hurry convinced me that I simply own too many companies. For the purposes of diversifying company-specific risk, nearly all the benefits can be achieved with as few as 10 companies, if those companies have sufficiently different performance characteristics. In less ideal circumstances, 20-40 companies will usually be sufficient. I currently own...
Correction, or Bear Market?
by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA
On February 21st, I was helping an investment advisor I consult with pick stocks for a new client's portfolio. He lamented that there were not enough stocks at good valuations. This is one of the hardest parts of being an investment advisor: a client expects the advisor to build a portfolio of stocks which should do well, but sometimes, especially in late stage bull markets, most stocks are overvalued. I reminded him, "The Constitution does not guarantee anyone the right to good stock picks." He agreed, but he still had to tell his client that...
The Yieldco Virtuous Cycle
by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA
Readers who followed my coverage of the Yieldco bubble in 2015 know the Yieldco Virtuous Cycle.
A Yieldco’s stock price rises
It issues new shares, and invests the money in renewable energy projects.
Because the stock price is high, it is able to buy more project cash flow by issuing fewer shares than it has in the past.
Cash flow available for distribution (CAFD) per share increases, despite the increasing number of shares outstanding.
Yieldco management sets a target for continued rapid annual distribution growth, which can be met either by further share issuance (if...
Covanta and Green Plains Partners Don’t Let A Crisis Go To Waste
by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA
Last week, two of the stocks in my Ten Clean Energy Stocks model portfolio cut their dividends. Covanta Holding Corp (CVA) dropped its quarterly payout from $0.25 to $0.08 (a 68% cut) while Green Plains Partners (GPP) slashed its quarterly distribution from $0.475 to $0.12, a drop of 74.75%.
Before reducing their dividends, both companies had payout ratios near 100%, meaning that substantially all of their free cash flow was going to pay dividends. In general, companies are very reluctant to cut their dividends because it is a signal that their management thinks they cannot grow...
