Clean Energy Tracking Portfolio Update: Oops!
My Quick Clean Energy Tracking Portfolio has solidly outperformed its benchmark... was it bad design? Tom Konrad, Ph.D. On February 27, I used the top holdings of the (then six) clean energy mutual funds to design a tracking portfolio intended to replicate the performance of those funds at much lower cost. If my methodology was sound, the tracking portfolio should produce returns within the range of returns of the mutual funds on which it was based. If all went well, the returns would be at the upper end of that range because of the way I chose to emphasize...
Notes On YieldCos, Future Fuel, and Aspen Aerogels
by Tom Konrad Ph.D., CFA Since I have not had much time to write for AltEnegyStocks, I thought I'd share with readers some notes I wrote for investors in the JPS Green Economy Fund, a hedge fund for which I'm director of Research, regarding our holdings in the third quarter: In the third quarter, we took advantage of the general decline of clean energy "YieldCos" to add two of these owners of wind and solar farms to our portfolio at attractive yields. Pattern Energy Group (PEGI) is an owner of wind farms having long term power purchase agreements...
See You Later, Hannon Armstrong
by Tom Konrad Ph.D., CFA
Sustainable infrastructure financier Hannon Armstrong (NYSE:HASI) is not in my Ten Clean Energy Stocks model portfolio for the first year since its IPO in 2013. I still love the company and its business model, but I have become concerned about its short term prospects.
Dividend Disappointment?
In my last update on the 2017 portfolio, I wrote,
“Sustainable infrastructure and clean energy financier Hannon Armstrong reported earnings on November 1st. The headline numbers were lower than expected, but for a very good reason. The company has spent the last few months locking in low interest rates by refinancing its...
Ten Clean Energy Stocks For 2019: What Caution Looks Like
by Tom Konrad Ph.D., CFA
So far, my worries about stock market valuation and political turmoil have not turned into the stock market downturn I've been warning readers to prepare for. In fact, September has been a particularly sunny month for both clean energy stocks and the stock market in general.My broad income stock benchmark SDY was up 3.9% and the energy income stock benchmark YLCO rose 2.7% for the month, more than reversing August's declines. My 10 Clean Energy Stocks model portfolio accelerated upward by 5.3%, as did my real-money managed strategy, the Green Global Equity Income Portfolio(GGEIP), which...
What’s Going On With Beacon Power and RailPower Tech?
Two diametrically-opposed stories for this post: Beacon Power and RailPower Tech . The latter is up 134% on its week-ago closing price, while the former is down nearly 22% over the same period. Beacon Power Corp I wrote about Beacon Power a little while ago. The recent drop in share price is due in large part to the fact that Beacon announced, last Friday (Dec. 29), a glitch at one of its testing facilities in Massachusetts. This was followed by an analyst at Merriman Curhan Ford downgrading the company from Buy to Hold. Almost immediately, the...
The Year of the Balance Sheet
Year in Review: Ten Green Energy Gambles for 2009 Tom Konrad, CFA My speculative renewable and alternative energy stock picks for 2009 had mixed results. The gambles came nowhere near the performance of my 10 Clean Energy Stocks for 2009, and only kept pace with their benchmarks. The reasons why can be found on the companies' balance sheets and cash flow statements. In January 2009 in response to popular demand, I gave readers ten picks of speculative green energy stocks. I tend to buck the general trend that renewable energy investors tend to be gamblers, but my annual stock...
10 Clean Energy Stocks For 2016
Tom Konrad CFA The History and Future of the "10 Clean Energy Stocks" Model Portfolios 2016 will be the eighth and possibly final year I publish a list of ten clean energy stocks I expect to do well in the coming year. This series has evolved from a simple, off-the-cuff list in 2008, to a full blown model portfolio, with predetermined benchmarks and monthly updates on performance and significant news for the 10 stocks. While there is much overlap between the model portfolio and my own holdings (both personal and in managed accounts), the model...
Value Trapped: Ten Clean Energy Stocks For 2015, April Update
Tom Konrad CFA My Ten Clean Energy Stocks for 2015 model portfolio held on to first quarter gains in April, despite a 29% fall for one of the stocks. (For details on that decline, see the Power REIT (NYSE:PW) section below.) The portfolio as a whole was rescued by the recovering Canadian Dollar and Euro, as well as mild advances for most of the other stocks across the board. That includes a 4.9% gain for TransAlta Renewables (TSX:RNW, OTC:TRSWF), and a 5.8% gain for FutureFuel (NYSE:FF) which I singled out...
Shares of Carmanah Purchased
Wouldn't you know it, right after I posted about this company and complained that I couldn't buy it, I checked my brokerage account to see if there was any movement to my open market order. Well the IntraWeb gods must have been smiling on me, I got a partial fill in my personal account. So I now have a small stake in Carmanah Tech Corp (CMH.V) at a price of $3.0525. Maybe I should post my complaints more often :-) DISCLAIMER: I am not a registered investment advisor. The information and trades that I provide here...
Energy Conversion Devices (NASDAQ:ENER): Jefferies Vs. Cramer
Two different opinions on Energy Conversion Devices came out last Thursday (Jan. 11). Analyst Jeffrey W. Bencik at Jefferies & Co said that ENER was one his top 2 picks in the solar industry for '07, opining that despite continued volatility this should be a rewarding year for ENER investors. He believes that attention will "shift from company specific performance to a top down focus on the evolution of solar incentive schemes." Jim Cramer, on Thursday's Mad Money, said he could not, "in good conscience, recommend that stock with oil at $51, going to $49. So,...
10 Clean Energy Stocks for 2020: May Update Part 1
by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA
For the last few monthly updates, I've been focusing on the big picture, and have neglected to say anything about many of the 10 Clean Energy Stocks for 2020 since I looked at how the pandemic would likely affect each stock in March.
This month, I'm trying to rectify the oversight, and have been posting updates on individual stocks for my Patreon supporters since Friday. Below is a collection of the updates I've published so far. I am to keep posting one a day until I've gotten to all of them, after which I plan to...
Wind Developers For Sale: 11 Clean Energy Stocks for 2012, October Update
Tom Konrad CFA September Overview September was another quiet month for my Clean Energy model portfolio and the stock market in general, with the exception of Finavera Wind Energy (TSX:FVR, OTC:FNVRF), which put itself up for sale last Monday (see below.) Since my last update, my model portfolio rose a modest 4.5%, shadowing my broad market benchmark, the Russell 2000 index (^RUT), also up 4.5%. Although my clean energy picks rose in line with the broader market, the clean energy sector as...
The Yieldco Virtuous Cycle
by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA
Readers who followed my coverage of the Yieldco bubble in 2015 know the Yieldco Virtuous Cycle.
A Yieldco’s stock price rises
It issues new shares, and invests the money in renewable energy projects.
Because the stock price is high, it is able to buy more project cash flow by issuing fewer shares than it has in the past.
Cash flow available for distribution (CAFD) per share increases, despite the increasing number of shares outstanding.
Yieldco management sets a target for continued rapid annual distribution growth, which can be met either by further share issuance (if...
Ten Clean Energy Stocks For 2015: Buying Opportunities
Tom Konrad Ph.D., CFA In the two months since my last "monthly" update, the stock market has been in turmoil. At the end of June, I was pleased report that my Ten Clean Energy Stocks for 2015 model portfolio was not only up for the year, it was comfortably ahead of its benchmarks. At the end of August, the report is of a more win-the-battle-lose-the-war variety. The portfolio is still ahead of its benchmarks, but it's now down 1% for the year to date. The portfolio lost 4.8% in July and 5.7% in August, to end...
Ten Clean Energy Stocks for 2013: April Update
Tom Konrad CFA While the sun was shining on most clean energy stocks in April, my ten clean energy picks for 2013 (introduced here) got relative showers. The Powershares Wilderhill Clean Energy Index (PBW) was up a sunny 14.1% for April to 19.6% for the year, rising quickly past my picks, which inched up a relatively meager 0.7% to 7.5% for the year so far. Meanwhile, the broad universe of small stocks gained 2.6% for a year to date gain of 15.1%, as measured by my benchmark the iShares...
10 Clean Energy Stocks for 2020: July Update on Valeo MiX, and NFI
A secular shift in the transportation paradigm?
by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA
I'm continually surprised at the strength and length of the stock market recovery in the face of a worsening pandemic in the US.
The stock market may not be the economy, but it's not totally divorced from the economy either. Perhaps the Senate's unwillingness to even talk about another aid package and the subsequent failure to pass one until after the benefits in the initial CARES act expire will trigger the market reversal I've been expecting at least since late April. Or it won't. I have a long track record...
