Strategy

Information asymmetry, climate investing and the active management edge. By Garvin Jabusch The theory of efficient markets says all stock prices are perpetually accurate, because investors always have complete and up-to-date information about their holdings. But as any casual observer knows, information and topical awareness are not evenly distributed, even among professional analysts. Reality is always far more complicated than equity markets can quickly assimilate, meaning information asymmetry is a constant. While usually considered a type of market failure, information asymmetry is frequently used as a “source of competitive advantage.” The person with the most information is best equipped to make the best...

Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA As usual, I am putting together my Ten Clean Energy Stocks for 2020 model portfolio for publication on January 1st or 2nd next year.  As I wrote in November, expensive valuations for the US clean energy income stocks I specialize in mean that the 2020 model portfolio will contain more than the usual number of foreign stocks, and I am also planning on including a little hedging with options. Why option strategies are now affordable I have never included options in the model portfolio before because the commission structure did not make it cost effective for small investors...

by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA Since my 10 Clean Energy Stocks for 2021 list contains 5 foreign stocks this year, a reader asked about the relative merits of buying a foreign stock compared to a US ADR.  Here is a summary of the relative merits (for US investors) of buying a foreign stock directly compared to buying the American Depository Receipt (ADR). First, let’s look at the tickers for the five foreign stocks in the list.  There are four types of ticker in the list this year: The stock on its home exchange in the local currency.  These have the form...

By Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA An 80% Weasel Coefficient Some activists, including a friend of mine, recently had a conversation with representatives of TIAA to try to persuade them to divest from fossil fuels.  The conversation was mostly cordial, but predictably did not get anywhere. One of the activists summed up the response from TIAA as “a non-response with a weasel coefficient of at least 80%.”  Regarding the weasel coefficient, he also asked, Can anyone explain to me what "our overarching strategy which targets climate-risk adjusted returns over the long-term” means in plain English?  Well, yes.  Yes I can. Climate Risk Adjusted Returns When an investment...

Only a couple weeks ago, I quoted the market aphorism, “In the short-run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long-run, it is a weighing machine.” It comes to mind again now that Robinhood types are short squeezing hedge funds with GameStop (GME) and other nostalgia stocks.   It's another example that any strategy that relies on valuation affecting prices in the short run (like stonks betting that GME would go down because it lacks a viable business) is incredibly risky.  It's also incredibly risky to bet that any trend driven by popularity will last.  Eventually, there are going...

There is no shortage of things to worry about as we start 2023.  The Federal Reserve is (rightly, in our opinion) worried about inflation becoming entrenched, and so is likely to continue hiking interest rates for much of 2023.  Putin looks unlikely to concede defeat in Ukraine, and his desperation may lead to escalation, potentially even of the nuclear variety.  California seems to be washing away while remaining in a drought.  China has loosened the zero-Covid policies that helped the country continue functioning during the first stage of the pandemic, while much of the rest of the world shut down. ...