Market Call: We’re Near the Peak
Tom Konrad, Ph.D. The current rally from the March 5 bottom has been breathtaking, especially in Clean Energy, with my Clean Energy Tracking Portfolio up 70.5% since it was assembled at the end of February (as of May 1), 11% higher than it was at the three month update last week, and the S&P 500 is up 41% from its March low. Even in a better economic climate, gains of this magnitude would have me running for cover. In the current economic climate, with a gigantic mountain of debt keeping consumers out of the stores, makes me feel this...
Preparing for Catastrophe: Is your global warming portfolio ready for rising sea levels?
A Worse-Case Scenario I believe that a large part of global warming denial is fear: fear that if we acknowledge that global warming is happening, we will be morally obligated to do something about it, and that the problem is too large for us to do anything effective. I also believe that denying the problem is certain to render us all ineffective in dealing with it. But getting over our global warming denial is not the only obstacle in our way to dealing with it. Global warming is already happening, and future temperature rises are already inevitable given the...
How Weather Risk Transfer Can Help Wind & Solar Development
by Daryl Roberts
The Need To Accelerate Renewables Adoption
Renewables are growing rapidly as a percentage of new electric generation, but are still being assimilated too slowly and still constitute too small of a fraction of total generation, to be able to transition quickly enough to scale into a low carbon economy in time to mitigate climate change.
The issue of providing public support, with subsidies and other reallocation methods, is a politically charged subject. High carbon advocates, for example American Petroleum Institute, argues that support for renewables distorts the market. On the other hand, it has been argued, for example by...
With the Cleantech Hype Gone, the Real Investment Opportunity Begins
David Gold The bubble has burst. The hype and euphoria of 2008 and 2009 is a distant memory. Fueled in part by the externality of the handouts from the stimulus package, and the (now fleeting) spike of natural gas and oil prices, cleantech has experienced its own mini dotcom era now followed by a dot bomb phase. The politicization of Solyndra, the fracking revolution (that has dramatically increased U.S. fossil fuel reserves) and the realities of what it takes to build successful cleantech companies have all brought the cleantech venture capital space crashing back to earth....
Free Talk: A Permaculture Portfolio
For readers in the Hudson Valley, I will be giving a free talk next Monday night. I will speak about applying permaculture design principles to your investment strategy. While I developed my own strategy over the last two decades without any reference to these design principles, now that I'm familiar with them, I realize that I have been thinking along these lines for a long time. The design principles are remarkably robust and intuitive.
I used to think Permaculture was just about redesigning our food systems, but it's much much more than that.
The talk is sponsored by the Rondout Valley...
The Difference between Reality and Pandering
Garvin Jabusch Innovation and increasing economic efficiency have always been the keys to profits and wealth. Getting more value out of systems without commensurate increases in inputs is the definition of growing efficiency, and it has been the engine of human economies since someone figured out how to use energy from a water wheel to grind grain instead of doing it by hand with a stone bowl and pestle. With that development (to simplify), a couple family members could run the wheel, freeing up everyone else for other pursuits. This kind of gain is the hallmark, to greater and...
Should I Sell My Mutual Fund To Go Solar?
by Tom Konrad Ph.D., CFA An enthusiastic solar volunteer recently asked me: “What can I invest in to prepare for the next financial crisis?” The situation made the question deeply ironic. The woman asking me was trying to help people invest in solar systems through Solarize, a nonprofit, community-sponsored group buying and discount program. Our town of Marbletown, New York and the neighboring towns of Rochester and Olive have just launched Solarize Rondout Valley, a campaign open to residential and commercial building owners in Ulster County. Solarize campaigns are designed to make it easier and cheaper...
Step By Step Fossil Fuel Divesting With Mutual Funds
by Tom Konrad Ph.D., CFA
A large and growing number of individual investors are showing an interest in divesting from fossil fuels. Where in the past I have been asked to give a talk on divestment once every year or two, I’ve spoken on the subject three times so far in 2020. (Here is a recording of a presentation I did for my college alumni association.)
The response to these talks has been overwhelmingly positive, but I’m left with the impression that a lot of the less financially sophisticated attendees are still not sure where to start. For most of these...
Cleantech Investing For EcoGeeks
by Tom Konrad. This story is cross-posted on EcoGeek.org As lovers of green gadgets, EcoGeeks probably know as much about what's new in clean technology (a.k.a Cleantech) as anyone on the web. So if you're an EcoGeek thinking about investing in companies which make the technology you know and love, you will probably take comfort in the old adage that you should invest in what you know. An EcoGeek investing in clean technology companies will have an advantage understanding how a company makes money, and what is a needed innovation with a large market, and what is simply a...
This Isn’t What Green Money Management Looks Like
Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA
I don’t spend much time reading investment company ESG reports, but a friend asked me to take a look at a copy of the TIAA’s 2021 Climate Report. I was deeply unimpressed. Here are a few things in the report that triggered my greenwashing radar:
TIAA wants to work with companies to improve their behavior. They call this company engagement. “e do not expect to account for the majority of our emissions reduction — we are primarily focused on company engagements” page 9.
Much of TIAA’s emphasis is on reducing emissions from their own operations,...
Green Energy Investing for Experts, Index and Wrap-Up
Tom Konrad, CFA My Green Energy Investing for Experts series looked at ways shorting could both protect your portfolio against market decline, and make it greener by shorting decidedly non-green companies. This is an index of the entries, plus one more industry for you to consider. Green Energy Investing for Experts, Part I made the case that shorting stocks that are particularly vulnerable to peak oil or climate change is a good way to hedge a portfolio of green stocks against a market decline while making the whole portfolio greener. Green Energy Investing for Experts, Part II looked at...
Buying Foreign Stocks: To ADR or Not To ADR
by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA
Since my 10 Clean Energy Stocks for 2021 list contains 5 foreign stocks this year, a reader asked about the relative merits of buying a foreign stock compared to a US ADR. Here is a summary of the relative merits (for US investors) of buying a foreign stock directly compared to buying the American Depository Receipt (ADR).
First, let’s look at the tickers for the five foreign stocks in the list. There are four types of ticker in the list this year:
The stock on its home exchange in the local currency. These have the form...
Trading Options and Foreign Stocks: When Low Trading Volume Is Not Illiquid
Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA
As usual, I am putting together my Ten Clean Energy Stocks for 2020 model portfolio for publication on January 1st or 2nd next year. As I wrote in November, expensive valuations for the US clean energy income stocks I specialize in mean that the 2020 model portfolio will contain more than the usual number of foreign stocks, and I am also planning on including a little hedging with options.
Why option strategies are now affordable
I have never included options in the model portfolio before because the commission structure did not make it cost effective for small investors...
How to Beat the Market: Less Money and More Judgement
Last week, I looked at how a small investor could gain an advantage in the market by understanding the other players. The most important other players are institutional investors such as hedge funds, pension funds, mutual funds, and investment banks who have considerably more resources and valuation skills than the individual investor, and so trying to take them on directly to beat them at their own is likely to be an expensive exercise in futility. Two Exploitable Weaknesses On the other hand, I argued that institutional investors have certain handicaps and biases which do allow small investors to enter...
An Investor’s Reaction to a Trump Victory
See my response here: https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/how-one-clean-energy-investor-is-reacting-to-a-trump-victory Tom Konrad
UltraPromises Fall Short
When I first came across ProShares' UltraShort ETFs, I thought they were a brilliant idea. They seem to promise a multitude of advantages for investors: The ability to hedge market or sector exposure without having to go short. (Going short requires a margin account, and US law prohibits the use of margin in most retirement accounts.) They should have a better risk profile than shorting. With an UltraShort, you can't lose more than your initial investment. With true shorting, the potential losses are unlimited. As the underlying index rises, each percentage gain creates a smaller dollar fall, while...





