The Big Short and Picking a Money Manager
If you're going to have someone else manage your money, consider their incentives carefully. I just finished reading Micheal Lewis's excellent book The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine on the Wall Street's role in the subprime mortgage meltdown and the few investors who saw it coming. I began with a low opinion of the effectiveness of the vast majority fund managers and advisors who manage other people's money for a living, but the the highly-paid gross negligence and/or incompetence of the people running the CDO operations of the big Wall Street banks in the years leading...
This Isn’t What Green Money Management Looks Like
Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA
I don’t spend much time reading investment company ESG reports, but a friend asked me to take a look at a copy of the TIAA’s 2021 Climate Report. I was deeply unimpressed. Here are a few things in the report that triggered my greenwashing radar:
TIAA wants to work with companies to improve their behavior. They call this company engagement. “e do not expect to account for the majority of our emissions reduction — we are primarily focused on company engagements” page 9.
Much of TIAA’s emphasis is on reducing emissions from their own operations,...
Step By Step Fossil Fuel Divesting With Mutual Funds
by Tom Konrad Ph.D., CFA
A large and growing number of individual investors are showing an interest in divesting from fossil fuels. Where in the past I have been asked to give a talk on divestment once every year or two, I’ve spoken on the subject three times so far in 2020. (Here is a recording of a presentation I did for my college alumni association.)
The response to these talks has been overwhelmingly positive, but I’m left with the impression that a lot of the less financially sophisticated attendees are still not sure where to start. For most of these...
Short Demand for Cree High and Rising
I got a call from my broker this morning asking me if I'd be willing to loan out my shares of Cree, Inc. (NASD:CREE) to a short seller. Since the only cost to me is that I will not be able to vote my shares, and I will earn 2.5% per annum on the value, I said "yes." Normally, brokerages get the shares they lend out to shorts from margin accounts with a margin balance. Since I never carry a balance (although I do have a margin account in order to trade options) they must ask my permission...
My #1 Rule of Investing
Tom Konrad CFA Rules of Investing Warren Buffett says "The first rule of Investing is don't lose money; the second rule is don't forget rule #1." Jim Hansen at Ravenna Capital Management and publisher of the Master Resource Report about oil and other energy news has a "prime directive" (a la Star Trek) about oil prognostication which is "never predict prices." These rules have to be taken metaphorically, not literally. Buffett's rule is too general to be useful. I take his message to mean that care to avoid losses is more effective than...
The Black Swan and My Hedging Strategy
Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA Nassim Nicholas Taleb's The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable changed the way I trade; I can't give a book higher praise. This isn't a book review; since the book is over two years old, and I did not get around to reading it until this Spring, I direct readers to this Foolish Book Review, which agrees with my viewpoint quite well, and to the New York Times for a detailed critique. The latter seemed overly nit-picky to me, but then I'm a fan. Human Biases Recently,...
The Difference between Reality and Pandering
Garvin Jabusch Innovation and increasing economic efficiency have always been the keys to profits and wealth. Getting more value out of systems without commensurate increases in inputs is the definition of growing efficiency, and it has been the engine of human economies since someone figured out how to use energy from a water wheel to grind grain instead of doing it by hand with a stone bowl and pestle. With that development (to simplify), a couple family members could run the wheel, freeing up everyone else for other pursuits. This kind of gain is the hallmark, to greater and...
Opportunity Hiding in Plain Sight
Information asymmetry, climate investing and the active management edge.
By Garvin Jabusch
The theory of efficient markets says all stock prices are perpetually accurate, because investors always have complete and up-to-date information about their holdings.
But as any casual observer knows, information and topical awareness are not evenly distributed, even among professional analysts. Reality is always far more complicated than equity markets can quickly assimilate, meaning information asymmetry is a constant. While usually considered a type of market failure, information asymmetry is frequently used as a “source of competitive advantage.” The person with the most information is best equipped to make the best...
Clean Energy Stocks Shopping List: FAQ
Stocks may be expensive now, and the temptation is to buy before they get even more expensive. Why patience makes the brokerage account golden. Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA On Friday, I started a series on stocks I'd like to buy when they are cheaper. The first was on clean or efficient transport stocks which will benefit from both Climate Change regulation and high oil prices due to Peak Oil. Before I continue on with my Clean Energy Shopping List series, I think it's worth talking about the underlying strategy, since it can be counter-intuitive, and I expect that many...
How Free Commissions Change The Game For Small Investors
Why Free Commissions are a Game-Changer For Small Investors
by Tom Konrad, Ph.D. CFA
Last month, Charles Schwab (SCHW), E-Trade (ETFC), and Ameritrade (AMTD) all dropped their commissions for online stock trades to $0. They also dropped commissions on options contract to $0.65 per contract.
The change opens up cost-effective individual stock investing to even the smallest investor, and also allows many more investors to use option strategies. For those wondering if there is a catch, and how these brokers will make money with $0 commissions, see here. The short version is that they make money on your cash deposits, and from...
Voting and GameStop
Only a couple weeks ago, I quoted the market aphorism, “In the short-run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long-run, it is a weighing machine.”
It comes to mind again now that Robinhood types are short squeezing hedge funds with GameStop (GME) and other nostalgia stocks.
It's another example that any strategy that relies on valuation affecting prices in the short run (like stonks betting that GME would go down because it lacks a viable business) is incredibly risky. It's also incredibly risky to bet that any trend driven by popularity will last. Eventually, there are going...
An Elephant Hunter Explains Inflection Point Investing
John Petersen In "An Elephant Hunter Explains Market Dynamics" I discussed the two basic types of public companies; earnings-driven companies that are “bought” in top-tier weighing machine markets and event-driven companies that are “sold” in lower-tier voting machine markets. Today I'll get a bit more granular and show how "sold" companies usually fall into one of two discrete sub-classes that have a major impact on their stock market valuations. As a starting point, I'll ignore the China-based companies that are listed in the US because their quirky metrics would only confuse the analysis. Then I'll break...
Twelve Green Investment Themes From Putin’s War on Ukraine
By Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA
Horrific, Tragic, Unprovoked, Heartbreaking. There is no lack of adjectives to describe Putin’s war on Ukraine. And while there probably can’t be too much coverage of the tragedies and war crimes, many others can write those far better than I.
As an economic and stock market commentator, the adjective I will focus on is world-changing. There is no doubt that the first land war in Europe since World War II, piled on top of a global pandemic, is already reshaping the economy in dramatic ways.
Some of those changes, like Europe switching away from Russian gas and...
How to Beat the Market: Less Money and More Judgement
Last week, I looked at how a small investor could gain an advantage in the market by understanding the other players. The most important other players are institutional investors such as hedge funds, pension funds, mutual funds, and investment banks who have considerably more resources and valuation skills than the individual investor, and so trying to take them on directly to beat them at their own is likely to be an expensive exercise in futility. Two Exploitable Weaknesses On the other hand, I argued that institutional investors have certain handicaps and biases which do allow small investors to enter...
A Quick Clean Energy Tracking Portfolio
Yesterday, I outlined a strategy to approximately replicate the performance of a Clean Energy mutual fund at much lower cost, with only a couple hours of effort. I gave a cost example based on $5000 invested in 5 stocks, with another $1000 worth of a single stock added in each subsequent year. This is the procedure I would use to select the initial five stocks. Collect all the top five or ten holdings of the available Clean Energy mutual funds. This data is available from Morningstar, and on fund sponsor's home pages. A few of these holdings may...
When Market Calls are Wrong
Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA. My recent market call now looks premature. What lessons can we learn? When we make market predictions, we will inevitably be wrong some of the time. I stuck my neck out at the start of June, saying "We're near the peak." I later gave some numbers to allow readers to objectively judge if that call was right or wrong. I said that we should consider it an accurate call if the S&P 500 fell 20% (to 756) before it rose 5% (to 992.) The S&P 500 has not yet come near 756, but it closed...





