Get Ready for a Revival in Solar Tech Investments
James Montgomery The Skies are Brightening as Manufacturers Resume Spending to Improve Efficiency Slumping solar PV equipment spending has finally bottomed out, and we're about to witness a "revival" in investments that will finally close the yawning gap between oversupply and demand, according to a pair of analysts reports. Solar PV manufacturers spent nearly $13 billion in 2011, but then their investments plunged more than 70 percent to $3.6 billion in 2012, and will probably drop another 36 percent this year to $2.3 billion, the lowest level since 2006, says Jon-Frederick Campos, analyst with IHS...
SunPower (NASDAQ: SPWR) and Graphene Investing
By Jeff Siegel 've said it before, and I'll say it again... If you want to profit from solar, the money is in installation and technology. Certainly SunPower (NASDAQ: SPWR) knows this to be true. One of the few U.S. solar plays still around, SunPower surprised analysts with a narrower Q1 loss and sales that exceeded estimates. This, by the way, was due to an increase in installations. No surprise there. And certainly those of us who regularly monitor installation data, which is not hard to come by, have been quietly picking up shares since the start...
US Solar: Lawsuits, A Quiet Exit, and Grand Plans But Fewer Results
Lessons From SunEdison, First Solar, and SolarCity by Paula Mints SunEdison (SUNEQ) Currently SunEdison faces at least 15 lawsuits. SunEdison, Terraform (TERP) and other defendants asked to have the cases against them consolidated. Along with the lawsuits, from October 2015 through May 26 at least 20 security class actions have been filed against SunEdison its subsidiaries, officials and underwriters. Many of these actions relate to claims that investors were misled about the liquidity of SunEdison, et al. Meanwhile, GCL-Poly wants to buy SunEdison’s (MEMC) polysilicon business for $150-million and those in charge of selling off the...
The Implications Of Trump’s Election For Solar
by Paula Mints The US election will have an affect on the US climate policy potentially swaying it much more towards conventional energy including fracking for natural gas and oil and away from deployment of renewables and incentives towards this end. The Clean Power Plan as established is unlikely to survive and states will start pulling back plans – not all states, but many of them. The Three Branches of Government: The Republican Party now controls the Executive, Judicial and Legislativebranches of government this means that the agenda followed by the country for at least two...
Rapidly Growing Alternative Energy Companies
The last post highlighted several companies in the alternative energy, conservation and environment technology fields that have delivered exceptional price performance over the last year. Prospects for growth in sales or earnings appeared to be key drivers of the price movement. It makes sense to seek indicators of growth as cues for those companies that may become tomorrow’s price movers.
Crystal Equity Research’s novel alternative energy indices were a good place to go on a ‘quest for growth.’
Beach Boys Index - Biodiesel
The two analysts who publish estimates for Renewable Energy Group (REGI: Nasdaq)apparently expect a surge in growth in the current year followed by a leveling...
The PV Module Supply Glut
Tom Konrad CFA With project financing and plenty of photovoltaic (PV) modules, a shortage of projects with credible off-takers seems likely to lead to further falls in module prices. How can investors best profit from this trend? PV module prices have dropped 70% since 2008, when the financial crisis sent demand tumbling, with Chinese multicrystalline silicon module prices currently as low as $1.49 per watt, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance's (BNEF) Solar Spot Survey. In part, this was an example of “the Bubble giveth, and the Bubble taketh away.” For the three to four years ending in 2008,...
The End of Abound Solar – What Have We Learned?
By Joseph McCabe, PE Timeline for Abound Solar The sad news on July 2nd 2012 was that 125 employees were being laid off at the Abound Solar factories in Colorado. Abound listed assets at $100 million and liabilities of $500 million in the bankruptcy filing. The final auction of the equipment assets was performed this past week. I feel fortunate to have visited Dr. W.S. Sampath's Cadmium Telluride (CdTe) photovoltaic (PV) manufacturing laboratory at Colorado State University in February 2005. At that time the laboratory was depositing CdTe PV materials onto 16” X 16” glass panels. That...
The Performance Of Solar PV Systems
Aug 11-09 Solar PV Charles Morand A couple of weeks ago, I noted the importance of examining parameters other than module costs when gauging the economic competitiveness of solar PV energy. I noted how multiple factors influence the levelized cost of energy produced by solar PV systems, and thus its relative cost position on the grid. Nothing new here. However, besides standard test conditions (STC) conversion efficiency, or nameplate conversion efficiency, public data on parameters other than cost per watt-peak is not always easy to come by. That's...
Departure Of First Solar CEO Rob Gilette Another Sign Of Solar’s Troubles
Clean Energy Intel First Solar's Blythe Solar Farm under construction First Solar's (FSLR) stock price was hit hard yesterday, falling some 25%, as a result of the departure of CEO Rob Gilette. The stock has bounced today. However, the very volatile price action is simply a sign of the extreme nervousness and underlying weakness in the sector. A number or readers have questioned my stance of being uninvested in the solar sector during the recent Solyndra-related market turmoil. Since I see solar as being a significant part of the long-term clean energy solution, this does raise some contradictions. Consequently, let...
Ten Solid Clean Energy Companies to Buy on the Cheap: #4 Applied Materials (AMAT)
Applied Materials Solar
First Solar And Trina: Dueling Ratings
by Debra Fiakas CFA Solar module producer First Solar, Inc. (FSLR: Nasdaq) received a boost last week from a new rating upgrade from Hold to Buy. There are at least fifteen sets of analytical eyes scrutinizing First Solar. The prevailing view on First Solar had been ‘hold’ or ‘neutral’ with a median price target of $70.00, representing a 13% return potential from the current price level. Solar power generation has on a roll in recent years as lower solar cell prices have helped find demand at higher volumes. The U.S. Solar Energy Industries Association...
First Solar’s New Mexico Project: The Parity and the Pain
James Montgomery Unusually public details about a newly signed solar project deal in New Mexico raise some interesting questions about the purchasing power of solar energy, how close it's getting to grid parity and just how much pressure is on upstream suppliers to fulfill that objective. First Solar (FSLR) has acquired a 50-megawatt (MW) solar power project in New Mexico from the solar division of Element Power. The deal is billed as the state's largest solar project; it also, according to some unusually public information revealed in a regulatory filing, raises some interesting questions...
Hopping Off The Short Enphase Bandwagon
by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA
Last week, I wrote that I'd taken a short position in Enphase Energy Inc. (ENPH). I have now closed out that position and don't intend to go short again.
My decision to go short was based on four factors:
I'm worried about risk in the overall market, and so am considering opportunistic short positions as a hedge.
Prescience Point Capital Management released a report accusing Enphase of earnings manipulation. The report seemed well-researched from a purely accounting point of view.
My favored indicator for avoiding companies which might be engaging in earnings manipulation, Beneish M-Score was...
Is the Solar Installation Industry Ripe for Consolidation?
Tom Konrad CFA Solar installation is a low margin business with low barriers to entry, but consolidation may bring competitive advantages in some sectors of the market. I recently took a look at Principal Solar (PSWW.PK), a reverse-merger solar developer roll-up play, and found it remarkably lacking in hard data. But there are a handful of other publicly traded pure-play solar installer/developers, as well as vertically integrated solar manufacturers like First Solar Inc (FSLR) which have been developing projects with their own panels, and solar developer-operators like Etrion Corp. (ETRXF.PK). The Shape of the Solar Installation...
Chinese Anger at EU Solar Tariffs
Doug Young I’ve been trying to avoid writing about the latest punitive tariffs for Chinese solar panels that look set to come from the European Union this week, since the story has dragged on for more than a year now and the outcome was almost inevitable. But that said, it would be a bit remiss of me not to write at least something on this latest move, which is expected to see European Trade Commissioner Karel De Gucht formally recommend the introduction of anti-dumping tariffs for solar panels supplied from China. (English article) The latest reports...
Bluefield Solar Eyes £150 Million IPO
Bluefield IPO to Be the Second Green Energy Fund Flotation in London This Year by Alice Young Bluefield Solar Income Fund Limited, an investment fund focussed on solar power, plans to raise £150 million in a London IPO. The Bluefield IPO will be the second flotation of a green energy find on the London Stock Exchange this year following the IPO of Greencoat UK Wind (LON:UKW). Bluefield Solar Plans London IPO On Wednesday, May 29, London-based Bluefield Solar announced that it intended to launch an initial public offering on the LSE’s main market. The fund, which is focussing...
