Solar Stocks Slide On Oil Slick
Doug Young Bottom line: The recent plunge in solar stocks is the result of panic selling due to falling oil prices, meaning the shares could rebound sharply once the sell-off subsides. US investors were showing signs of new energy indigestion in the shortened trading day after Thanksgiving, dumping stocks of all the major solar panel makers in a messy post-holiday sell-off. With no major news from any of the companies, the driving force behind the sell-off appears to be the recent plunge in oil prices, which hit new 4 years lows late last week after OPEC declined to cut...
India Hates Coal
By Jeff Siegel If you think the war on coal in the U.S. is bad, you ain't seen nothing yet! We recently got word that India is set to double the tax on coal production, while promoting electric vehicles and renewable energy projects. I'm pretty sure there's some Luddite reporter in Mumbai right now who's head's about to explode. But that's neither here nor there. While I'm no fan of regulatory regimes of any kind, I'd be lying if I said I wasn't happy to know that a crap-ton of money is getting funneled into renewable energy and electric...
Solar City IPO: A Bit Pricey
by Debra Fiakas CFA Renewable energy retailer SolarCity has filed for an initial public offering of 10 million shares of its common stock and a few shares owned by existing shareholders. The offering is valued at between $130.0 million and $150.0 million based on an anticipated share price between $13 and $15 per share. SolarCity expects its shares to trade on Nasdaq under the symbol SCTY. Proceeds raised by SolarCity will be used support acquisitions of complementary operations. Proceeds could also be used to support SolarCity’s capital spending program as it seeks to extend its distributed network...
Hopping Off The Short Enphase Bandwagon
by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA
Last week, I wrote that I'd taken a short position in Enphase Energy Inc. (ENPH). I have now closed out that position and don't intend to go short again.
My decision to go short was based on four factors:
I'm worried about risk in the overall market, and so am considering opportunistic short positions as a hedge.
Prescience Point Capital Management released a report accusing Enphase of earnings manipulation. The report seemed well-researched from a purely accounting point of view.
My favored indicator for avoiding companies which might be engaging in earnings manipulation, Beneish M-Score was...
Alternative Energy Companies Posting Large Returns
Alternative energy companies delivered compelling returns for investors. A look at Crystal Equity Research’s ‘indices’ of renewable energy, conservation and environmentally-friendly technology companies found some exceptional price moves. We review five companies here that have experienced top price moves from 52-week lows.
Codexis, Inc. (CDXS: Nasdaq) has gained 257% from its 52-week low. The company won a place in our Beach Boys group through development of proteins for a mix of applications from biocatalysts for industrial enzymes, chemicals and pharmaceuticals. While the company has started generating revenue from its technology, it has yet to post a profit. Codexis delivered a smaller than expected loss in the...
Tier One Chinese Solar To Continue To Outperform
by Clean Energy Intel TAN v STP, YGE and TSL Source: Barchart The chart above tells a particularly interesting story. Back in November of 2011, having been bearish on solar for some months, we argued that the market was finally beginning to see a process of rebalancing in the solar sector. A key component of this of course related to a number of announcements from Chinese solar players that they would bring a halt to new plans to expand capacity - at least until the end of 2012. This factor,...
Why Do Green Energy Experts Buy Solar Stocks?
Tom Konrad CFA Green energy experts accept that solar panels are one of the least cost effective ways to reduce your carbon footprint. Nevertheless, many buy solar stocks. They should rethink their investment strategies. I recently spoke on "Stock Selection in the Era of Peak Oil and Climate Change" at the ASPO 2009 International Peak Oil Conference. Whenever green energy enthusiasts find out that I analyze green energy stocks professionally, they react in one of two ways. Many want to know my top stock pick in general (New Flyer Industries NFI-UN.TO/NFYIF.PK) or in their favorite sector (see below.) ...
SolarCity: The Amazon of Solar?
By Harris Roen SolarCity (NASD:SCTY) has become a sort of proxy for the future of solar in this country. This tremendously successful company is coming up on a one year anniversary of its IPO in December. Several developments at SolarCity warrant a closer look into this dynamic company trying to stay ahead of the curve in a growing, competitive solar installation environment. Despite skeptics, SolarCity’s stock is strong There was much skepticism among investors when SolarCity was preparing for its IPO in 2012. Solar stocks had been badly beaten up in recent...
The US Solar Module Capacity Bandwagon
by Paula Mints
South Korea's Hanwha Q Cells (HQCL) jumped on the US solar module capacity building bandwagon by announcing that it planned to add 1.6-GWp of module assembly in the US with the goal of taking advantage of the 2.5-GWp of cells that can be imported without the tariff.
Comment: The US has about 1-GWp of module assembly for which cells must be imported. Jinko is expected to add 600-MWp of module assembly capacity in Florida.
SunPower (SPWR) is expected to add capacity in Oregon if and when (when or if) the SolarWorld US acquisition is approved. Meanwhile new module assembly is...
Powering Advanced Energy
by Debra Fiakas CFA Solar power producers have many challenges. One is the direct current to alternating current dilemma. Solar panels create power that flows one way in a direct current (DC). We use electricity in our homes and businesses in alternating current (AC) that flows both directions, forward and backward. So solar cell producers must use solar inverters that convert the electricity from the direct current in the solar panel into alternating current. This is where Advanced Energy Industries, Inc. (AEIS: Nasdaq) comes in. AEIS makes power inverters for the solar power industry. The...
Is The Largest Solar Manufacturer a Bargain?
by Debra Fiakas CFA In the previous post on Canadian Solar (CSIQ: Nasdaq) I suggested a multiple of 10 times the consensus estimate for earnings in 2014 might be a compelling value for the solar module producer. Putting a value on is competitor Yingli Green Energy Holding (YGE: NYSE) is not so easy given the string of losses reported by Yingli. The usual price to earnings multiple cannot be used to value a company swimming in red ink. That leaves the multiple of price to sales. Yingli trades at 0.5 times sales compared to the one-to-one multiple...
Bright Forecasts from Renesola
Doug Young ReneSola (NYSE:SOL) boosts revenue and margin forecasts More good news is coming from the battered solar panel sector, with mid-sized player ReneSola (NYSE: SOL) sharply boosting its revenue and margin forecasts for the current quarter in the latest sign of a sector rebound. ReneSola isn’t forecasting a return to profitability just yet, but the latest signs do seem to indicate the sector’s strongest players could return to the black by the end of this year if current trends continue. Some could also interpret this upbeat news...
Get Ready for a Revival in Solar Tech Investments
James Montgomery The Skies are Brightening as Manufacturers Resume Spending to Improve Efficiency Slumping solar PV equipment spending has finally bottomed out, and we're about to witness a "revival" in investments that will finally close the yawning gap between oversupply and demand, according to a pair of analysts reports. Solar PV manufacturers spent nearly $13 billion in 2011, but then their investments plunged more than 70 percent to $3.6 billion in 2012, and will probably drop another 36 percent this year to $2.3 billion, the lowest level since 2006, says Jon-Frederick Campos, analyst with IHS...
Are Solar PV and Wind Incompatible with Nuclear and IGCC?
Paul Denholm, a Senior Analyst at the National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL), sees an upcoming struggle between renewable sources of electricity such as photovoltaics (PV) and wind with low-carbon baseload alternatives for space on the low carbon grid of the future. These baseload alternatives are nuclear and Internal Gasification Combined Cycle coal plants with Carbon Capture and Sequestration (IGCC w/ CCS, refereed to by advocates as "Clean Coal). This may come as a shock to advocates of the idea that Global Warming is such a big problem that we will need all forms of low carbon electricity, because the...
Too Much Solar Could Be Good for Inverter Companies
2009 is likely to be a watershed year for the solar photovoltaic (PV) industry, and one which many PV manufacturers will not survive. Even before the credit crunch and plummeting housing market made capital intensive PV much harder to finance, the easing of supply constraints in the market for solar grade silicon meant that PV supply was liable to increase rapidly, putting pressure on marginal producers. I expect that the loss of PV demand due to tighter credit markets will more than compensate for the added demand due to the extension of the solar Investment Tax Credit (ITC) and...
It’s Time to Buy SolarCity
By Jeff Siegel Well, it was a record-breaking day for Texas last week. On March 26, at 8:48 p.m., nearly 30% of the Lone Star State's electricity was generated by wind. Most came from West Texas, and there wasn't a single issue regarding integration. Despite the common refrain of “the grid can't handle all this intermittent power,” Texans had no problem turning on the lights with all those extra wind-powered electrons. Of course, for those of you who rely on actual data instead of empty rhetoric, this should come as no surprise. In fact, a new study just...
