Signs Of Trouble For Chinese Solar Stocks
Doug Young Regular readers will know I’m a bit bearish lately on the solar panel manufacturing sector, largely because I believe its recent rebound is being fueled as much by hype as real business after a prolonged downturn. A new report on some of the sector’s so called “growth engines”, coupled with a separate report on a dispute at one of the top surviving players, are adding fuel to my skepticism that the sector’s recent sharp rebound isn’t really happening. At the very least, the recent reports indicate the rebound isn’t nearly as strong as many are claiming,...
Is SolarCity a Wise Investment?
By Harris Roen As a result of a disappointing earnings release, SolarCity (SCTY) took a shellacking on March 7th. The stock traded down 17.6% to the low of the day, and closed down 14.4%. Still, the stock is up 6.5% for the month, and the savvy investor would have gained 78% if they bought SCTY on the first day of trading in December 2012. So what happened? Moreover, what is the outlook for this innovative solar company? It was no surprise that when SolarCity’s earnings results were released on March 6, the company had...
Growing Fears of PV Module Oversupply in 2011
Andrew Williams London, UK On the back of last year's record demand, there are growing concerns that photovoltaic (PV) module supply is set to outstrip demand throughout 2011, leading to significant oversupply in the industry. But are these concerns founded? And if they are, what impact might the oversupply have on the global PV industry? 2011 Forecast According to analysts at UK-based IMS Research, Photovoltaic (PV) module production capacity increased by nearly 70% over the course of 2010, reaching nearly 30 GW by the end of the year. Looking ahead, IMS anticipates that 35 GW...
Company Failures Are Not Industry Failures
Dana Blankenhorn Nearly all the big computer companies of the early 1970s have since gone out of business. Remember the BUNCH? Burroughs, Univac, NCR, Control Data, Honeywell (HON)? The first two became Unisys, the last three are still around, but none is a real factor in the computer industry as it exists today. Betting on the BUNCH in 1971 would not leave you in the chips in 2011. Digital Equipment, Data General, Wang, Amdahl? All gone. Along with nearly every company that made PCs in the 1970s save one – Apple. International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) didn't get into the...
Yingli’s New Deadline, Hanergy’s Plunging Value
Doug Young Bottom line: Yingli’s shares could rebound a bit as concerns ease about an imminent bankruptcy, while Hanergy’s shares are likely to continue sliding when trading resumes to correct from a massively speculative recent run-up. This week has been a volatile time for solar company stocks, which have taken a beating after Yingli (NYSE: YGE) warned about its ability to stay in business due to its heavy debt load. Now Yingli has put out a new statement saying its earlier warning was misinterpreted, helping to reverse a huge sell-off of its shares as it laid out the next...
Yingli’s Downward Spiral
Doug Young Bottom line: Yingli’s downward spiral will continue as customers abandon the company due to its financial weakness. Shares of the stumbling Yingli (NYSE: YGE) are coming under pressure after its latest earnings report. The intense pressure solar panel makers continue to feel as their sector still struggles to recover from a downturn that dates back 4 years due to massive oversupply. Panel prices have rebounded somewhat over the last 2 years and many of the best-run companies have returned to profitability during that time. But intense pressure still remains for less well-run companies like Yingli. ...
First Solar: Companies Plan, God Laughs
by Paula Mints
First Solar (FSLR) offered a great lesson about the announcing of plans (man plans, god laughs) in July when during its Q2 release call it discussed the yield problems slowing commercial production of it’s Series 6 large format module. The production delays are due to a single point of failure causing a bottleneck. First Solar expects to enter volume production with its Series 6 module early in 2019.
Muted-kudos to First Solar for discussing a not-so-secret problem with Series 6 production. The kudos are muted because if the company had been more circumspect in the first place there...
How to Play the Solar Revival
Tom Konrad CFA A new report from GTM research, “PV Technology, Production and Cost Outlook: 2012-2016” predicts continued contraction in PV manufacturing. While recent price declines have driven record-breaking installations, it has also driven most manufacturers’ margins into the red. You can’t make up for negative margins on volume. For a stock market investor, the best approach to a cut-throat industry is to stay away until competition and lower prices remove or absorb the excess capacity, and to buy the remaining players just before the industry’s prospects revive. As you can see from the chart above,...
SolarCity Product Can Increase Generation On Flat Roofs Up To 50%
By Jeff Siegel While solar bears and short-mongers celebrated the 8% dip in SolarCity (NASDAQ:SCTY) yesterday, opportunists are sniffing around for another buying opportunity. Especially those who didn't take my advice to load up after the stock fell below $50 back in March. What a bargain that was! In any event, SCTY took it on the chin yesterday, and I suspect there will continue to be some ebbs and flows in the near-term. Long-term, however, SCTY remains a solid play on the growth of solar in the United States. It's also worth noting that SCTY has just unveiled a...
Making Residual Value Real: Where is Solar’s Emilio Estevez?
by Colin Murchie Seeking Solars' Emilio Estevez It is no secret that costs of capital must decrease to make distributed generation a massively scaling resource. And, as costs of capital steadily decrease, the “residual value” – what happens to the asset once the PPA has run out – becomes more and more important. With that in mind, it no longer seems reasonable to fill the years after the PPA’s expiration – with a row of zeros on the pro forma. There is residual value there that is often...
Suntech Has A Friend In Wuxi But Foes In NY
Doug Young Former solar energy pioneer Suntech (NYSE: STP) is getting caught in an increasingly complex web of global forces as it tries to emerge from bankruptcy, with the latest coming from its hometown of Wuxi and from a bankruptcy court in New York. While such tugs-of-war probably aren’t uncommon in such a complex case, Suntech’s strong international connections mean its reorganization could take longer than many previously expected. The case also highlights the unusual risks associated with companies that do so much trans-border business. The latest developments have seen Suntech’s hometown of Wuxi emerge as a major new...
The Grid Impacts of Net Metering
Net metering describes the requirement that an electric utility buy electricity from any of its customers that generate their own electricity (usually with some sort of renewable energy, such as solar or wind) at the same price that they sell it to the customer. That seems fair, doesn't it? The Utility Perspective It doesn't seem fair to the utility. Utilities do more than just generate and sell electricity to customers. They also are responsible for transmission (delivering the electricity) and reliability (making sure that the lights work when you flip the switch.) Taking just the reliability requirement, suppose that...
Four Green Money Managers’ Top Stock Picks
Green money managers' stock picks after the Japanese nuclear crisis. Even as the nuclear disaster in Japan unfolds, it's clear that the world's energy industry will be forever changed. Russian reactors were never considered safe, but a Japanese to have a nuclear meltdown is an entirely different story. Market Reaction Since Monday, nuclear stocks and ETFs have been plummeting. As of Wednesday night, The Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF (NYSE:NLR), the iShares S&P Global Nuclear Energy Index (NASD:NUCL), PowerShares Global Nuclear Energy Portfolio ETF (NYSE:PKN), and the Global X Uranium ETF (NYSE:URA) are down...
Principal Solar’s “Unique Roll-Up Strategy”
Tom Konrad CFA Last week, the announcement that Principal Solar, Inc. was now available for public trading landed in my inbox. It's currently trading under the symbol PSWWD.PK but will transition to PSWW.PK on June 23rd. I went ahead and used the latter in our Solar Stocks list. The press release was remarkable only for the lack of hard facts about the company, focusing instead on the bright future of the solar industry. But experienced investors know that an industry can have a bright future while the individual stocks tank. A rising tide need not lift all...
Five Solar Stocks For 2015
By Jeff Siegel Times sure have changed! In 2006, I attended my first Solar Power International (SPI) conference in D.C. It was a no-frills event but loaded with valuable information I used to help Energy and Capital readers get a jump on the solar bull market that ran from 2006 to 2008. Truth be told, we cleaned up. But nothing lasts forever. And when the market nosedived in 2008, solar stocks were not exempt from the ravenous bears that mauled everything in their path. Of course, as the broader market began to inch back up in 2010, solar...
How China Came To Dominate Solar Manufacturing
by Paula Mints
The PV industry is global, and its pricing function has a cultural basis. Particularly as it is dominated by China, without an understanding of China and its market motivations, it is impossible to understand why PV manufacturers today, all rational actors, willingly accept 15% or lower manufacturing margins when margins for like industries are higher.
Examples from other industries include: Coal 40% to 50%, Iron and Steel 20%, Construction ~30%, Appliances 30%, Aluminum 20%, Industrial Machinery and Components 40%, Aerospace 40% and Agriculture 8%.
In the PV industry the average margin is 8%. Congratulations PV, you are on par with agriculture.
Aside from significant government...
