Trina and BYD Grow With State Support. How Will They Do Without?
Doug Young Bottom line: Trina’s new loan and BYD’s uncertain outlook for EV sales this year reflect continued reliance of new energy technology companies on state support, which could pressure them as government incentives get retired. Two new energy stories are in the headlines today, reflecting the progress but also the continued reliance on government support that this up-and-coming group of companies faces. That particular reality isn’t new, though some who were hoping the industries would become commercially independent more quickly may be disappointed. But more important, this reality could challenge many of the companies in the...
The Solar Bears are Wrong
Dana Blankenhorn There are a growing number of “solar bears” out there like Jim Chanos, a professional short-seller who is convinced China is poised for a 2008-style crash and who is also selling short stocks like First Solar (FSLR) and Vestas Wind (VWDRY.PK). (What does Chanos like? Would you believe Citibank?) (Picture from Wikipedia.) Personally, I don't know whether Chanos is right about those stocks or not. First Solar is a popular short because it's the best-performing U.S. solar play. Fly high and the assumption is you'll fall fast. But two big mistakes are being made here: ...
Solar Equipment Maker GT Advanced Technologies Lays Off 25 Percent of Workforce
Jennifer Runyon Responding to projections that the solar panel module overcapacity will continue for at least another year, solar equipment maker GT Advanced Technologies today announced a restructuring plan. The company will lay off approximately 25 percent of its workforce and consolidate its existing business units into a single Crystal Growth Systems (CGS) group. The company said that when fully implemented, the restructuring would save approximately $13 million in annualized expenses. GT expects to record restructuring charges associated with these actions in the amount of approximately $4.2 million in the December quarter. More details and commentary will be...
First Solar Rides the Wall of Worry
Dana Blankenhorn When people first get excited about solar energy, one of the first things they think of doing is to invest in it. And the first place they think to throw their money is thin-film solar manufacturer First Solar Inc. (FSLR) of Tempe, Arizona. First Solar is what I might call the “big iron” play in solar. That is, it mainly produces large, flat panels that are installed by utilities and connected to the grid. It's a good business. The company regularly earns 25% on assets, 30% on equity, and it's managed conservatively. So why is it that...
3 Stocks For The Coming Solar Shortage
By Jeff Siegel An impending glut of solar panels was going to be the death knell for the industry. Or at least that's how the solar bears framed the argument just a few short years ago. Today, however, it's a different story... A shortage of solar panels is now going to kill the industry. Or at least that's how the bears are framing the argument this time. Meanwhile, I'm grinning ear to ear. Because just as opportunity existed during the great solar glut, opportunity exists as the solar industry gears up for a potential shortage. So don't...
First Solar’s Surprising Strategy Switch
by Paula Mints CdTe and crystalline manufacturer and project developer First Solar (FSLR) announced positive results for Q1 as well as a switch in strategy emphasis from deployment to module sales. Honestly, revenues, positive net income and other financial metrics matter less in this case than the company’s strategy switch to module sales. Downward price pressure and margin compression along with continued aggressive pricing from China makes this move confusing. Cost leadership is mutable in the PV industry and it is difficult to imagine that First Solar will have an advantage in this regard for long. ...
Green Chip Stocks’ “Sunless Solar” Tease
Tom Konrad Last week, Stock Gumshoe sleuthed out Jeff Seigel's recent tease of a "$0.62 Company Just Perfected Sunless Solar.” The company is New Energy Technologies (NENE.OB), which was trading at $1.20 after the close on Friday. Here's what the Gumshoe has to say about the company: And of course, maybe Siegel’s right, maybe these guys will be to First Solar what IBM was to Smith Corona … I’m just not holding my breath. For more information on the company, which did stage a demonstration of the technology in Tampa last month, you can certainly visit...
Signs Of Trouble For Chinese Solar Stocks
Doug Young Regular readers will know I’m a bit bearish lately on the solar panel manufacturing sector, largely because I believe its recent rebound is being fueled as much by hype as real business after a prolonged downturn. A new report on some of the sector’s so called “growth engines”, coupled with a separate report on a dispute at one of the top surviving players, are adding fuel to my skepticism that the sector’s recent sharp rebound isn’t really happening. At the very least, the recent reports indicate the rebound isn’t nearly as strong as many are claiming,...
Solar Stocks Slide On Oil Slick
Doug Young Bottom line: The recent plunge in solar stocks is the result of panic selling due to falling oil prices, meaning the shares could rebound sharply once the sell-off subsides. US investors were showing signs of new energy indigestion in the shortened trading day after Thanksgiving, dumping stocks of all the major solar panel makers in a messy post-holiday sell-off. With no major news from any of the companies, the driving force behind the sell-off appears to be the recent plunge in oil prices, which hit new 4 years lows late last week after OPEC declined to cut...
The War On Net Metering
by Paula Mints Net metering and interconnection are rights afforded distributed generation (DG) residential and commercial solar system owners through the U.S. Energy Policy Act of 2005. The act required publically owned utilities to offer net metering and left the various policies up to the states to enact. In 2004, before that energy policy was enacted, 39 states had net metering and interconnection standards and policies. At the beginning of 2016, 43 U.S. states and three territories had net metering policies, and four states had policies similar to net metering that the Database of State Incentives for Renewables...
Too Much Solar Could Be Good for Inverter Companies
2009 is likely to be a watershed year for the solar photovoltaic (PV) industry, and one which many PV manufacturers will not survive. Even before the credit crunch and plummeting housing market made capital intensive PV much harder to finance, the easing of supply constraints in the market for solar grade silicon meant that PV supply was liable to increase rapidly, putting pressure on marginal producers. I expect that the loss of PV demand due to tighter credit markets will more than compensate for the added demand due to the extension of the solar Investment Tax Credit (ITC) and...
Rapidly Growing Alternative Energy Companies
The last post highlighted several companies in the alternative energy, conservation and environment technology fields that have delivered exceptional price performance over the last year. Prospects for growth in sales or earnings appeared to be key drivers of the price movement. It makes sense to seek indicators of growth as cues for those companies that may become tomorrow’s price movers.
Crystal Equity Research’s novel alternative energy indices were a good place to go on a ‘quest for growth.’
Beach Boys Index - Biodiesel
The two analysts who publish estimates for Renewable Energy Group (REGI: Nasdaq)apparently expect a surge in growth in the current year followed by a leveling...
SolarCity Soars On Silevo Aquisition
Silevo's Triex Solar Technology By Jeff Siegel DISCLOSURE: Long SCTY. SolarCity Corp. (NASDAQ: SCTY) has signed a deal to acquire Silevo, a solar panel technology and manufacturing company on June 16th. With Silevo now in the fold, SolarCity is in discussions with the state of New York to build a new manufacturing plant with a targeted capacity in excess of one gigawatt – within two years. Upon completion, this will be one of the largest solar panel production plants in the world. Although there are plenty...
Shunfeng Could Be China’s New Major Solar Player
Doug Young China’s solar retrenchment has taken a big step forward with word that a bankruptcy court has chosen Hong Kong-listed Shunfeng Photovoltaic (HKEx: 1165) from a field of bidders vying to invest in reorganizing former solar pioneer Suntech (NYSE: STP). The decision is interesting both because of who the bankruptcy court selected, and also because of who lost the bidding. The selection of Shunfeng looks particularly significant, as it could mark the emergence of a new major player as the battered solar panel sector finally starts to emerge from its 2-year-old downturn. The latest reports don’t contain...
SolarCity Rooftop Solar Lease Securitization Advances
by Sean Kidney US firm SolarCity (SCTY) announced last week that it was seeking to make a private placement of a $54.4 million, 13 year bond backed by cash flows from rooftop solar leases. SolarCity is the second-largest U.S. solar company by market capitalization. Lead manager Credit Suisse (CS) has been working on this deal for some time now, which will now only be eligible to be sold to big, qualified investors. It’s been a race this year between them and a US bank to get the first solar rooftop loan securitization our the door. Looks like...
Growing Fears of PV Module Oversupply in 2011
Andrew Williams London, UK On the back of last year's record demand, there are growing concerns that photovoltaic (PV) module supply is set to outstrip demand throughout 2011, leading to significant oversupply in the industry. But are these concerns founded? And if they are, what impact might the oversupply have on the global PV industry? 2011 Forecast According to analysts at UK-based IMS Research, Photovoltaic (PV) module production capacity increased by nearly 70% over the course of 2010, reaching nearly 30 GW by the end of the year. Looking ahead, IMS anticipates that 35 GW...
