Solar Module Prices: The Trend Is Down
by Paula Mints Buckle up, another module price war is afoot – or maybe it’s dumping or maybe it’s panicked selling or maybe it is the result of overcapacity and softening demand or maybe it is China’s government saying NO MORE to it’s out of control market and effectively stranding a whole lot of overcapacity or maybe it is all of the aforementioned. Pricing is always a complex subject. The average price for modules from China is currently $0.60/Wp (and dropping) and the average price for smaller buyers is $0.66/Wp (and dropping). These are averages and...
SunShot Grand Challenge: The SunShot Swerve
Ed Gunther Has a permanent swerve or shift downward of the PV (Photovoltaic) Learning Curve been caused by PV industry overcapacity, normalized polysilicon prices, and the aggressive SunShot goals? From SunShot Grand Challenge: The SunShot Swerve On the second day of the SunShot Grand Challenge Summit and Technology Forum, SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ:SPWR) President Emeritus Dr. Richard Swanson presented “The SunShot Swerve” providing his perspectives on where the PV industry is today and how SunShot has influenced the industry’s direction. After explaining the book that motivated the title, Dr....
The End of Abound Solar – What Have We Learned?
By Joseph McCabe, PE Timeline for Abound Solar The sad news on July 2nd 2012 was that 125 employees were being laid off at the Abound Solar factories in Colorado. Abound listed assets at $100 million and liabilities of $500 million in the bankruptcy filing. The final auction of the equipment assets was performed this past week. I feel fortunate to have visited Dr. W.S. Sampath's Cadmium Telluride (CdTe) photovoltaic (PV) manufacturing laboratory at Colorado State University in February 2005. At that time the laboratory was depositing CdTe PV materials onto 16” X 16” glass panels. That...
Recurrent Energy and Jumei: A Tale Of Two Listings
Doug Young Bottom line: Canadian Solar’s Recurrent Energy unit is likely to make its first public filing for a New York IPO in the next 2 weeks and should get a positive reception, while Jumei is likely to quietly de-list from the US in the next 3-4 months. One of the few Chinese IPOs likely to happen in New York this year is moving closer to the launch gate, with word of major new financing for the power plant-building unit of solar panel maker Canadian Solar (Nasdaq: CSIQ). But while that IPO for Recurrent Energy moves closer...
The Solar Bears are Wrong
Dana Blankenhorn There are a growing number of “solar bears” out there like Jim Chanos, a professional short-seller who is convinced China is poised for a 2008-style crash and who is also selling short stocks like First Solar (FSLR) and Vestas Wind (VWDRY.PK). (What does Chanos like? Would you believe Citibank?) (Picture from Wikipedia.) Personally, I don't know whether Chanos is right about those stocks or not. First Solar is a popular short because it's the best-performing U.S. solar play. Fly high and the assumption is you'll fall fast. But two big mistakes are being made here: ...
SolarWindow: A Unique But Risky Opportunity
by Debra Fiakas, CFA
SolarWindow (WNDW: OTC/QB) raised $25 million this week to build a manufacturing plant for its electricity-generating glass. Three investors subscribed to 16.7 million shares of common stock. The company is getting $19.8 million in new capital in addition to conversion of $3.6 million in debt to common stock.
The SolarWindow is unlike any other energy producing innovation. Rather than relying some sort of dedicated production plant or facility, the SolarWindow is a part of the electricity user’s own facility. Ultra-thin layers of liquid coatings are sprayed onto a glass surface, forming a network or array of miniature solar cells.
This is a type of photovoltaic technology that uses...
First Solar, Intermolecular Pushing Thin-film Solar PV Materials R&D
James Montgomery First Solar (NASD:FSLR) is arguably the leader in thin-film solar photovoltaics (PV). It's relentlessly inched up conversion efficiencies of its cadmium-telluride (CdTe) technology, while chipping away at manufacturing costs (now at $0.67, reported in November). The current NREL-confirmed record holder for CdTe at 14.4% total area efficiency and 17.3% cell efficiency, First Solar's module efficiency in production in November 2012 was 12.7% (average), and its roadmap (last updated Dec. 2011) projects a goal of 14.5%-15.0% average efficiency for production modules by the end of 2015. In the company's 3Q12 earnings presentation, CEO Jim...
European Commission Recommends Tariffs on Chinese Solar
James Montgomery Trade War. photo via Bigstock The European Commission has decided to recommend duties on Chinese solar panels up to 67.9 percent, according to reports from multiple sources. Wall Street Journal reports that the tariffs will affect more than 100 companies, and be implemented at a range from 37.3 to 67.9 percent at an average of 47.6 percent, close to projections earlier this week. Companies will face tariffs as follows: Suntech (STP) and its subsidiaries: 48.6 percent LDK Solar (LDK): 55.9 percent Trina Solar (TSL): 51.5 ...
Should I Sell My Mutual Fund To Go Solar?
by Tom Konrad Ph.D., CFA An enthusiastic solar volunteer recently asked me: “What can I invest in to prepare for the next financial crisis?” The situation made the question deeply ironic. The woman asking me was trying to help people invest in solar systems through Solarize, a nonprofit, community-sponsored group buying and discount program. Our town of Marbletown, New York and the neighboring towns of Rochester and Olive have just launched Solarize Rondout Valley, a campaign open to residential and commercial building owners in Ulster County. Solarize campaigns are designed to make it easier and cheaper...
First Solar: Companies Plan, God Laughs
by Paula Mints
First Solar (FSLR) offered a great lesson about the announcing of plans (man plans, god laughs) in July when during its Q2 release call it discussed the yield problems slowing commercial production of it’s Series 6 large format module. The production delays are due to a single point of failure causing a bottleneck. First Solar expects to enter volume production with its Series 6 module early in 2019.
Muted-kudos to First Solar for discussing a not-so-secret problem with Series 6 production. The kudos are muted because if the company had been more circumspect in the first place there...
Solar Parking Developer Envision Solar Now Public (OTCBB:EVSI)
Tom Konrad, CFA One of the best things about Solar Photovoltaics (PV) is that they can be installed close to load but need not take up open space. Now public company Envision specializes on solar shading for parking lots that not only produces power, but also shade where it's needed most. I lived in Tucson, Arizona for two years in the early 2000s. Like everyone who lives in the desert Southwest for any length of time, I became very aware of what would happen if I left my car in an open parking lot for more than...
Suntech Nears Final Reckoning; Yingli’s Sales Grow While Losses Narrow
Doug Young New developments in the battered solar energy space indicate the day of reckoning is fast approaching for embattled Suntech (NYSE: STP), even as the latest results from rival Yingli (NYSE: YGE) are showing early signs of a rebound for the battered sector. Industry watchers will recall that cash-strapped Suntech has nearly $600 million worth of bonds that will mature on March 15, even though it lacks the money to repay the bondholders. The company hired investment bank UBS in October to try and renegotiate the debt, though we haven't heard anything from the company since...
Two More Mega Solar Deals In China
Doug Young More bright signs are emerging in the solar panel sector with word of 2 major new tie-ups, one involving ReneSola (NYSE: SOL) in Japan and the other Yingli (NYSE: YGE) in China. In the first, ReneSola has signed a massive deal to sell panels to a Japanese solar power plant developer. The latter case looks similar, with Yingli in its own deal for a major joint venture to co-develop new solar power plants with one of China’s top nuclear power companies. The deals point to the huge potential from the China and Japan markets for solar...
Solar: Polysilicon Prices Accelerate To The Downside
by Clean Energy Intel In a further sign of the continue supply-demand imbalance in the solar sector, weekly data from Bloomberg New Energy Finance suggests that the spot price of polysilicon, the raw material used in most solar panels, accelerated to the downside last week, falling at the fastest pace since June. Prices of solar wafers and cells also continued their decline: 'The average selling price dropped 5.8 percent on the week to Oct. 10 to $43.78 per kilogram, according to the latest results from the London-based research firm’s survey of contracts conducted from Oct. 3 to...
10 Solar Hopes For 2019
by Paula Mints
Ten things to hope for in 2019, and their odds of coming true.
1) Accelerated focus on climate change:
It’s not enough to talk climate change, or promise action – action must be taken and though it will take lifestyle changes now, and will have an economic impact now, the cost of attempting to survive climate change is higher. Make no mistake, it’s survival, not reversal.
Odds: Low – when the bill for change comes due even true believers will balk, when a change in behavior is required, most find this difficult, and when the entrenched technology or industry feels...
Yingli: Sunnier Days Ahead?
Doug Young Struggling solar panel maker Yingli (NYSE: YGE) is trying the good news-bad news approach to distract investors from its latest downbeat earnings, announcing its biggest-ever new order on the same day it released its dismal third-quarter results. Based on shareholder reaction, the approach has been quite successful, with Yingli's stock surging more than 13 percent in Wednesday trade after both announcements came out. Investors seem to clearly be focused on the big new order, and are hoping that Yingli may actually be able to manufacture profitably by the time it delivers the solar cells to this...
