Solar Photovoltaic

Doug Young Solar Lifeline image via Bigstock A new Chinese media report shows that after more than a year of talk, Beijing is finally turning its aggressive talk on solar energy into action by more than doubling its approval of new solar power plants this year. The main question now is: Will any of its struggling solar panel makers survive long enough to enjoy the expected boom in business when some of these new plants start to get built. Of course industry watchers will know the answer is...

Doug Young Regular readers will know I’m a bit bearish lately on the solar panel manufacturing sector, largely because I believe its recent rebound is being fueled as much by hype as real business after a prolonged downturn. A new report on some of the sector’s so called “growth engines”, coupled with a separate report on a dispute at one of the top surviving players, are adding fuel to my skepticism that the sector’s recent sharp rebound isn’t really happening. At the very least, the recent reports indicate the rebound isn’t nearly as strong as many are claiming,...

by Shawn Kravetz In the second quarter, solar stocks were impacted by broad energy sector declines on global macroeconomic concerns (most notably Greece and China). This negative sentiment has continued unabated into July exacerbating the disconnect between fundamentals and perceptions. JA Solar (NYSE: JASO) epitomizes this dislocation. We at Esplanade Capital Electron Partners (ECEP) owned JA Solar prior to June 5, believing the company to be worth ~30%+ more than the share price. On June 5, JA Solar received a takeover offer from its Chairman/CEO and parent company at a 20% premium....

James Montgomery The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has formally decided to levy antidumping duties on imported solar-grade polysilicon from U.S. and Korean suppliers, turning up the heat yet again in the broader trade disputes simmering between several key markets for solar energy. The antidumping tariffs, which are said to be effective starting July 24, range from 54-57 percent targeting nine U.S. suppliers and from 2-49 percent for 11 South Korean suppliers. (Here's a roughly Googlized translation of the China MOC announcement.) Here's how the antidumping tariffs lay out: Not included in these polysilicon tariffs is any mention of European...

Tom Konrad CFA A new report from GTM research, “PV Technology, Production and Cost Outlook: 2012-2016” predicts continued contraction in PV manufacturing.  While recent price declines have driven record-breaking installations, it has also driven most manufacturers’ margins into the red.  You can’t make up for negative margins on volume. For a stock market investor, the best approach to a cut-throat industry is to stay away until competition and lower prices remove or absorb the excess capacity, and to buy the remaining players just before the industry’s prospects revive. As you can see from the chart above,...

Dana Blankenhorn Nearly all the big computer companies of the early 1970s have since gone out of business. Remember the BUNCH? Burroughs, Univac, NCR, Control Data, Honeywell (HON)? The first two became Unisys, the last three are still around, but none is a real factor in the computer industry as it exists today. Betting on the BUNCH in 1971 would not leave you in the chips in 2011. Digital Equipment, Data General, Wang, Amdahl? All gone. Along with nearly every company that made PCs in the 1970s save one – Apple. International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) didn't get into the...

Doug Young The fight for survival among the world's embattled solar panel makers is starting to look more like a battle of the dead, with word that bankrupt US player Solyndra is suing 3 of its biggest Chinese rivals over allegations of running an illegal cartel. Some of you might be saying: "Wait a minute, doesn't Solyndra have better things to do than to be filing lawsuits against rivals who are also flirting with bankruptcy?" If that's the question, then the answer appears to be "no". Perhaps the failed Solyndra is still seeking some final respect,...

by Tom Konrad Ph.D., CFA An enthusiastic solar volunteer recently asked me: “What can I invest in to prepare for the next financial crisis?” The situation made the question deeply ironic. The woman asking me was trying to help people invest in solar systems through Solarize, a nonprofit, community-sponsored group buying and discount program. Our town of Marbletown, New York and the neighboring towns of Rochester and Olive have just launched Solarize Rondout Valley, a campaign open to residential and commercial building owners in Ulster County. Solarize campaigns are designed to make it easier and cheaper...

Clean Energy Intel First Solar's Blythe Solar Farm under construction First Solar's (FSLR) stock price was hit hard yesterday, falling some 25%, as a result of the departure of CEO Rob Gilette. The stock has bounced today. However, the very volatile price action is simply a sign of the extreme nervousness and underlying weakness in the sector. A number or readers have questioned my stance of being uninvested in the solar sector during the recent Solyndra-related market turmoil. Since I see solar as being a significant part of the long-term clean energy solution, this does raise some contradictions. Consequently, let...

Charles MorandLike Tom, I attended part of the Solar 2009 conference last week. One of the most interesting presentations I heard was by Andy Black, CEO of OnGrid Solar, on the potential impact on residential solar installations of removing the $2,000 ITC limit (link to the actual paper). Prior to changes in October 2008, ITC tax credits for rooftop solar PV installations were capped at $2,000. In the author's own words: This paper presents revised and expanded financial analyses of residential cases . It will look at Internal Rate of Return (IRR) only (for simplicity of...

Doug Young Bottom line: Canadian Solar’s Recurrent Energy unit is likely to make its first public filing for a New York IPO in the next 2 weeks and should get a positive reception, while Jumei is likely to quietly de-list from the US in the next 3-4 months. One of the few Chinese IPOs likely to happen in New York this year is moving closer to the launch gate, with word of major new financing for the power plant-building unit of solar panel maker Canadian Solar (Nasdaq: CSIQ). But while that IPO for Recurrent Energy moves closer...

By Jeff Siegel Well, it was a record-breaking day for Texas last week. On March 26, at 8:48 p.m., nearly 30% of the Lone Star State's electricity was generated by wind. Most came from West Texas, and there wasn't a single issue regarding integration. Despite the common refrain of “the grid can't handle all this intermittent power,” Texans had no problem turning on the lights with all those extra wind-powered electrons. Of course, for those of you who rely on actual data instead of empty rhetoric, this should come as no surprise. In fact, a new study just...

Doug Young After a week of unusual quiet on the stormy solar panel front, the sector is splashing back into the headlines with word that struggling LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK) is moving one step closer to a state-led takeover of the debt laden company. Meantime, China is also taking its own broader moves against recent protectionist actions in the West by lodging an official complaint at the World Trade Organization against what it is calling unfair treatment of its companies in Europe. Let's take a look at the LDK news first, as it's the most dramatic and...

Doug Young Solar Lifeline image via Bigstock Intriguing rumors that billionaire investor Warren Buffett might be eying bankrupt former solar superstar Suntech (NYSE: STP) are breathing new life into embattled solar shares, as traders bet that western investors could help to revive the sector. Such a move would indeed be a major vote of confidence in this tarnished industry, since most observers believe that no private investors would want to bet on this group and a state-led rescue will be necessary to save the shaky sector. But...

by Paula Mints Don Quixote by Honore Daumier via Wikimedia Commons For decades the photovoltaic industry has been driven by its beliefs, hopes, the availability of incentives, and what it is willing to ignore in terms of market realities and technological barriers. The apparent achievement of grid parity, even at drastically low margins, was hailed a victory. Continued deployment of multi-megawatt installations in the face of low margins for developers and likely gigawatts of poor quality installations has been regarded as proof of the inevitability of the industry’s success. ...

Doug Young As the solar panel sector continues its painful overhaul, signals are emerging about who will survive the downturn and thrive when the industry returns to health. Canadian Solar (Nasdaq: CSIQ) certainly seems to be one of the strongest players coming out of the retrenchment, with word that the company has sold 4 more plants that it constructed to private buyers. Canadian Solar is quickly emerging as a strong executor of this particular strategy, which sees it construct power plants using its own solar cells and then eventually selling those plants to private sector buyers. Rival Suntech...