Price Pressure Will Squeeze Solar Inverter Revenues
James Montgomery SMA Solar inverter photo by Claus Ableiter In a new report, IHS says worldwide solar inverter unit shipments will rise 7 percent this year, but PV inverter revenues are heading the opposite way, a 9 percent decline this year to $6.4 billion, worse than the firm's earlier prediction of a 5 percent drop. (2014 will see a 9 percent rebound in revenues back to around $7.0 billion, while shipments will surge 19 percent to more than 41 GW.) That's because overall inverter prices are sinking fast, sliding to...
Solar: Big Gets Bigger, Small Suffers
Doug Young A couple of new items from the battered solar sector hint that the situation may be improving for the largest companies, even as smaller players continue to struggle and face the very real danger of collapse. Of course I'd be remiss if I didn't point out that I've predicted a rebound for this embattled sector once or twice before based on optimistic company statements, and in each instance the rebound I was sensing never came. This time the difference could be that many smaller players have now closed or are tottering on the brink of insolvency,...
US Finalizes China Solar Tariffs
Doug Young President Obama's election victory has dominated US headlines over the last 2 days, but Washington showed it was still hard at work with news that the Commerce Department has finalized punitive anti-dumping tariffs against Chinese solar panel makers. In a way, this kind of quiet ending seems appropriate for a drawn-out process that began more than a year ago with a Congressional probe into a bankrupt US solar firm. With this trade issue now resolved, China, which produces more than half of the world's solar panels, can now focus on simply saving an industry that is...
Will Buffett Rescue Suntech?
Doug Young Solar Lifeline image via Bigstock Intriguing rumors that billionaire investor Warren Buffett might be eying bankrupt former solar superstar Suntech (NYSE: STP) are breathing new life into embattled solar shares, as traders bet that western investors could help to revive the sector. Such a move would indeed be a major vote of confidence in this tarnished industry, since most observers believe that no private investors would want to bet on this group and a state-led rescue will be necessary to save the shaky sector. But...
GE To Delay Colorado Thin-film Manufacturing Plant
Steve Leone Delays and cancellations photo via Bigstock Now, energy giant General Electric (GE) said it is putting plans for its Aurora, Colo., plant on hold for 18 months in reaction to the continued drop in crystalline silicon solar panels. When the company announced its plans to jump into American thin-film manufacturing nine months ago, it did so in grand fashion. Company officials unveiled a plan for a 400-megawatt (MW) facility that would churn out cadmium telluride (CdTe) panels, the same thin-film technology deployed by...
Sunpower Optimistic, But Needs Cash
This recent post explored the unusual mating call of a solar panel manufacturer, SunPower Corporation (SPWR: Nasdaq). The Company is looking for a partner to bankroll the upgrade of a manufacturing facility in Hillsboro, Oregon acquired in October 2018, in a tie up with one of its rivals, SolarWorld America. SunPower now has one less competitor and more room to flex its production muscles. However, capital is still important.
The Company suffered a net loss of $811.1 million or $5.76 per share on $1.73 billion in total sales. Profit margins were negative straight down. Investors could accept the loss without too much worry if the pace of...
A New Competitive Landscape for Solar PV Racking
by Joseph McCabe, PE I've been attending the Intersolar conference in San Francisco for ten years since it was just Semicon, and noticed many of the most interesting trends don’t show up in the headlines. This year, I noticed that the exhibit halls were packed with metal (racking) peddlers, far more than in previous years. Solar headlines concentrate on the modules, even though there seems to be less and less differentiation in the module market, with everyone competing for a lower and lower average selling price (ASP). As a friend and PV industry expert told me,...
The Cadmium Telluride Solar Factory Race
by Joseph McCabe, PE Solar manufacturers are racing to build the next cadmium telluride (CdTe) photovoltaic (PV) factory in the United States. Three major CdTe on glass factories in the US have been recently announced each with a unique starting point. Abound Solar has won a US DOE loan to support a new 640 MW/yr facility in Tipton, Indiana. General Electric (GE) recently announced buying Primestar. They indicate that they will be building the largest PV manufacturing facility in the world. Finally First Solar has announced a 250 MW/yr facility to be built in Mesa City Arizona near...
Yingli: Sunnier Days Ahead?
Doug Young Struggling solar panel maker Yingli (NYSE: YGE) is trying the good news-bad news approach to distract investors from its latest downbeat earnings, announcing its biggest-ever new order on the same day it released its dismal third-quarter results. Based on shareholder reaction, the approach has been quite successful, with Yingli's stock surging more than 13 percent in Wednesday trade after both announcements came out. Investors seem to clearly be focused on the big new order, and are hoping that Yingli may actually be able to manufacture profitably by the time it delivers the solar cells to this...
The Value of Net Metered Electricity in New York
by Tom Konrad, Ph.D. Net metering is unfair and is dangerous for the long term health of utilities, at least according to Raymond Wuslich, when he spoke at the 2015 Renewable Energy Conference in Poughkeepsie, NY. Wustlich is an attorney and partner at Winston & Strawn, LLP., and advises clients across the electricity and natural gas industries on Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) matters. To make his point, Wuslich used a simplified New York residential electric bill. In this simplified bill, the customer was charged 12¢ per kWh for...
Chinese Solar Blows Hot and Cold
Doug Young Bottom line: Solar products maker Tianwei is likely to get a government bailout before it defaults on an upcoming bond payment, while a massive 2 GW solar farm being built by a new private equity fund is likely to get completed. Two solar news items are drawing attention to both the opportunities and challenges facing this increasingly schizophrenic sector in China. A new mega-project is spotlighting the huge opportunities for new construction in the space, with word that a recently launched private equity fund plans to build a massive solar farm with a whopping 2...
Why Do Green Energy Experts Buy Solar Stocks?
Tom Konrad CFA Green energy experts accept that solar panels are one of the least cost effective ways to reduce your carbon footprint. Nevertheless, many buy solar stocks. They should rethink their investment strategies. I recently spoke on "Stock Selection in the Era of Peak Oil and Climate Change" at the ASPO 2009 International Peak Oil Conference. Whenever green energy enthusiasts find out that I analyze green energy stocks professionally, they react in one of two ways. Many want to know my top stock pick in general (New Flyer Industries NFI-UN.TO/NFYIF.PK) or in their favorite sector (see below.) ...
Solar Weaklings Shudder on Tianwei Collapse
Doug Young Bottom line: The bankruptcy of Tianwei signals Beijing will allow a new round of failures for weaker solar panel makers, with Yingli and ReneSola the most likely to come under pressure. News that solar panel material maker Baoding Tianwei is on the brink of collapse has sent shudders through the entire sector, as everyone guesses who might be next to fall in a looming new clean-up of China’s bloated industry. Tianwei has been in trouble for a while now, after the company became the first state-run firm to ever default on a domestic bond interest payment back...
How China Came To Dominate Solar Manufacturing
by Paula Mints
The PV industry is global, and its pricing function has a cultural basis. Particularly as it is dominated by China, without an understanding of China and its market motivations, it is impossible to understand why PV manufacturers today, all rational actors, willingly accept 15% or lower manufacturing margins when margins for like industries are higher.
Examples from other industries include: Coal 40% to 50%, Iron and Steel 20%, Construction ~30%, Appliances 30%, Aluminum 20%, Industrial Machinery and Components 40%, Aerospace 40% and Agriculture 8%.
In the PV industry the average margin is 8%. Congratulations PV, you are on par with agriculture.
Aside from significant government...
Trade Wars Send Chinese Solar Companies Offshore
Doug Young Bottom line: A new wave of overseas investment by Chinese solar panel makers should ease western complaints of unfair state-support and provide a more solid foundation for the sector’s longer-term development. Solar panel makers migrate overseas As a settlement to avoid anti-dumping tariffs for Chinese solar panels exported to Europe showed signs of unraveling last week, a new report emerged that showed a more positive trend for a sector that has become the subject of nonstop trade wars over the last 4 years. That newer trend has seen...
Trina Thrives On Solar Financing
Doug Young Investors were applauding a new announcement by Trina Solar (NYSE: TSL), after it announced a deal that would see it help to finance and build a massive solar power farm in southwest Yunnan province. The deal should indeed help Trina generate big sales for the near-term, as it involves construction of a farm with huge capacity of 300 megawatts of power. But I’m just a bit wary of this kind of development, which will also see Trina pay most of the bills to build the facility. This kind...
