Our Energy Bubble
Tom Konrad CFA Our energy policy looks like a bubble. Bubbles are a social phenomenon at least as much as they are a financial phenomenon. At the top of bubbles, participants ignore glaringly obvious risks. In October 2007, Meredith Whitney pointed out the almost glaringly obvious fact that Citigroup was paying out more in dividends than it was earning in profits (i.e. it was being run like the US government, but without a friendly Federal Reserve to bail it out by printing money.) She said that Citigroup would need either to raise capital,...
Right About Tesla, Wrong About Yingli
Doug Young Bottom line: Beijing should promote cutting-edge companies like Tesla that can help advance its new energy agenda, while abandoning ones like Yingli that use old technology to make cheap copycat products. Two green energy stories were in the headlines last week, spotlighting China’s drive to become a global leader in the new technology and also the right and wrong ways to achieve that aim. An item involving US electric vehicle (EV) powerhouse Tesla (Nasdaq: TSLA) represented the right approach, with reports that the company might near a deal with Beijing to build a manufacturing plant in China....
Green swan, Black swan: No matter as long as it reduces stranded spending
by Prashant Vaze, The Climate bonds Initiative
In January, authors from several institutions under the aegis of BiS, published The Green Swan Central banking and financial stability in the age of climate change setting out their take on the epistemological foundations for, and obstacles against, central banks acting to mitigate climate change risk.
The book’s early chapters provide a cogent and up-to-date analysis of climate change’s profound and irreversible impacts on ecosystems and society. The authors are critical of overly simplistic solutions such as relying on just carbon taxes. They also recognize the all-too-evident deficits in global policy to respond to the threat.
In short, they accept the need for central banks to act.
The Two Arguments
The paper makes two powerful arguments setting out the challenges central banks face using their usual mode of working.
Firstly, climate change’s impact on financial systems is an unknowable unknown – a...
New Tariffs Likely To Raise US Solar Prices
Jennifer Runyon The US Department of Commerce announced preliminary findings in the new trade case against Chinese and Taiwanese PV products. On Friday evening the U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) announced its preliminary findings in the antidumping duty (AD) investigations of imports of some crystalline silicon PV products from China and Taiwan. Most solar products entering the U.S. market from China and Taiwan will now face import duties. According to a fact sheet released by the DOC, the AD law “provides U.S. businesses and workers with a transparent and internationally accepted mechanism to seek relief...
Here comes the sun….not
Marc Gunther Germany, once the world’s leading market for solar power, is pulling back its subsidies. Q Cells (QCLSF.PK), once the world’s largest solar company, just went bankrupt. This isn’t happy news. If the country that birthed the Green Party cannot sustain its support for solar, what does that tell the rest of us? It should tell us that it’s time (actually way past time) to get serious about energy and climate policy. This week, as I followed the news from Germany, I talked with a couple of energy-policy experts who I respect–Jesse Jenkins of the...
Get Your Clean Energy Tax Credits Before They Go Away
The House version of Donald Trump’s “Big Beautiful” budget bill almost completely repeals the provisions of Joe Biden’s signature Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). In particular, the tax credits for homeowners and electric vehicles will be zeroed out in the coming tax year.
If you are a high income earner or a corporation, you will probably see your taxes go down if the Senate passes a similar version of the bill. Lower income earners will likely see their taxes go up… and younger Americans will all likely see their taxes go up in the long term when they have to pay...
Overcoming Hurdles to Clean Energy Commercialization
by David L. Levy In the absence of a global framework for regulating emissions, the future of the planet largely rests on choices by private firms and investors regarding which technologies to pursue and commercialize. Despite the mounting evidence of severe climate change, there is a funding crisis for potential solutions. The Department of Energy released data at the beginning of November showing that global emissions of CO2 rose 6% in 2010, despite the ongoing economic recession. This trajectory is higher than the worst case projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in it’s 2007 Fourth...
What I Didn’t Say About Obama and New Energy
I was interviewed for a story on NPR's Morning Edition which aired Thursday. Tamara Keith asked me what Obama's election meant for Alternative Energy, and I felt many of my points were downed out by the others she interviewed. Here's what she didn't put in the story: Obama mentioned three challenges ahead in his acceptance speech. He said, "We know the challenges that tomorrow will bring are the greatest of our lifetime: two wars, a planet in peril, the worst financial crisis in a century." Of these three challenges, two were thrust upon him, but he chose to...
Windpower: Focusing the Criticism Away from NIMBYism and Aesthetics
Michael Giberson Market-oriented policy analysts have not been shy about cataloguing the problems surrounding windpower development. But in the enthusiasm to oppose the government interventions accompanying wind generation, market-based analysts sometimes have strayed beyond principled defense of markets and unwittingly offered support to anti-market NIMBYism and other meddlesome sentiments. Policy analysts examining wind power issues should consider more carefully which issues ought to be pursued through the policy process. Two Images Wind power has two images. In one view, wind power is glamorous, hi-tech, future oriented and almost sexy. Advertisements for products from automobiles to...
Renewable Energy Standards: Savvy or Silly?
David Gold State renewable energy standards have gained momentum over the past decade with 29 states having put in place various types of standard mandates and five more having implemented voluntary standards (34 total). Now the federal government is looking to get into the game with a bi-partisan bill (S. 3813) aiming to set a minimum national standard. Renewable energy standards certainly feel good, but do they really provide the best path for achieving their goals? The existing renewable energy standards are savvy in finding a way to reduce fossil fuel consumption and carbon emissions while simultaneously being...
Two Numbers: One Matters, the Other Gets All the Attention
Garvin Jabusch This morning, in the realm of those who follow such things, the world became aware of two newsworthy numbers, 69,000 and 400. The former number is how many jobs were added to the U.S. economy in May according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS); the latter is how many parts per million (ppm) in our atmosphere are represented by carbon. You can guess our opinion: 400 parts per million is a far more significant milestone than the apparent ‘bad news’ of America adding 69,000 more jobs. The jobs number is, at best, banal ephemera....
Net Metering Is the Solar Industry’s Junk Food
Shoppers who bring reusable bags to the grocery store buy more junk food. This example is part of a growing body of behavioral psychology research showing that when we feel good about ourselves for doing one thing right, we give ourselves permission to be careless in other areas. The solar installation industry seems to be falling into the "reusable shopping bag" trap. Solar itself is the reusable shopping bag. The junk food is net metering. Net metering is a simple, intuitive way to pay for solar generation at retail rates. But it puts solar companies on...
Election Does Not Spell Cleantech Doom
With the recent “shellacking” (as President Obama referred to the election results) of the Democratically controlled Congress, much of the buzz in the cleantech space has been doom and gloom. Is cleantech doomed to a new dark age? I do not believe so. Energy policy is one area where there is an overlap of goals between the parties. Members of both parties largely agree that energy is critical to our economic and national security. And most Republicans do not dismiss out of hand the risks of global warming. I suspect that energy policy will be...
AltEnergyStocks Endorses Elizabeth Warren For President
by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA, Editor
Past Endorsements
AltEnergyStocks.com has endorsed a candidate in all the US Presidential races since 2008 (Obama, followed by Obama in 2012, Clinton in 2016, and a generic endorsement of congressional Democrats in 2018.
Despite the long string of Democratic endorsements, AltEnergyStocks this site does not automatically endorse Democratic or liberal candidates. We are issue driven, and all our endorsements to date have been purely based on the policy positions of the candidates.
It is simply a sad fact about the Republican party that they have not fielded a conservative who actually cares about conservation of the environment...
Trick and Treat: Energy loans under review, as Hallowe’en looms
Jim Lane The Obama Administration got tricked, and handed out some bad energy loan candy. Turns out that the Washington press corps, and House Republicans, were asleep on the job, too. Until the money ran out, that is. We’re not sure if there’s been any more perfect timing for an Obama Administration announcement, than the news that it will start up an investigation of the DOE loan guarantee program just as Hallowe’en weekend got underway. Hallowe’en, is of course, the time of disguise, the celebration of the macabre, and the ghostly return of the...
Will McConnell Kill The Bull Market?
By Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA
The risks of playing politics
The American news media often tries too hard to be “balanced” when talking about politics.
Depending on which news sources you rely on, you may be hearing that “congress” is having trouble passing bills to fund the government and raise the debt ceiling. More partisan sources will be blaming it on the Democrats or the Republicans, depending on their political bent.
I generally consider myself an independent who cares deeply about the environment and competent government. Since the rise of Donald Trump, the Republicans have shifted from being the party of big business...
