Johnson Controls Forecasts Enormous Stop-Start Growth
John Petersen On June 27th Johnson Controls (JCI) hosted their 2011 Power Solutions Analyst Day and unveiled their expectations for the future of stop-start idle elimination systems. After noting that all automakers are developing a range of powertrains, JCI used this graph to emphasize their view that the overwhelming bulk of alternative powertrain vehicles over the next five years will have simple, cost effective and fuel efficient stop-start systems. You don't see much about stop-start systems in the mainstream media because politicians and reporters are too enchanted with plug-in vehicles and other exotica...
Plug-in Vehicles Will Be Dirtier Than HEVs
John Petersen On June 22nd Scientific American rolled-out a Web-only article titled "The Dirty Truth about Plug-in Hybrids, Made Interactive" that summarizes a January 2008 report from Oak Ridge National Laboratory and shows why plug-in vehicles in the U.S. will, on average, be just a little bit dirtier than gasoline HEVs. You read that right – dirtier, not cleaner! I first raised the issue in an August 2009 article titled PHEVs and EVs, Plugging Into a Lump of Coal, where I estimated that plug-in vehicles would be about 25% cleaner than HEVs, but the marginal cost...
A123’s Planned IPO Moves to the Front Burner
John Petersen After six months of regulatory silence and $100 million in new funding, A123 Systems amended the SEC registration statement for its proposed IPO on June 23rd. While this latest filing may simply be A123's way demonstrating its ability to raise matching funds for a scaled back ATVM loan request of $1 billion and pending applications for $438 million in direct Federal grants, my sense is that the proposed IPO will probably come to market in early September. Since ATVM loans will require 20% cost sharing and direct Federal grants will require 50% cost...
Are Advanced Battery Technologies’ Financial Statements Accurate?
Eiad Asbahi, CFA In this article, I’m going to analyze Advanced Battery Technologies, Inc. (ABAT) and provide evidence that the company is inflating its financial statements. This article summarizes key points that we have put together in a longer report available here (.pdf). An alternative copy for backup purposes is available here. A video summary of the findings, along with discussions with certain customers, are available at the following links: ABAT Analysis Video 1 of 2 ABAT Analysis Video 2 of 2 ABAT Customer Interview 1 ABAT Customer Interview 2 (Video 1 of 2)...
How The Micro-hybrid Revolution Will Radically Change The Battery Market
John Petersen In late October I gave a keynote presentation at Batteries 2012, one of the largest lithium-ion battery conferences in the world. During the conference, I was buttonholed for a couple hours by the chairman's global strategy team for one of the top three lithium-ion battery manufacturers in the world. They started by explaining that their Global 100 company is abandoning the plug-in vehicle market to focus on sensible applications where it can earn a reasonable margin. Then they started drilling down with a series of detailed and probing questions about whether any of the principal lead-acid...
The Coming Bull Market In Lead-Acid Batteries, Part II
John Petersen On June 8th Switzerland's ABB Group Ltd. (ABB) announced an agreement to buy UK-based Chloride Group PLC (CHLD.L) for £860 million in cash, or approximately $1.26 billion. This stunning purchase provides the best evidence yet that lead-acid battery manufacturers including Enersys (ENS), Exide Technologies (XIDE) and C&D Technologies (CHP) are woefully undervalued and offer outstanding opportunity for patient and risk tolerant investors. ABB is the gold standard in the secure and efficient generation, transmission, distribution and use of electricity in utility, industrial and commercial applications. Its portfolio ranges from light switches to robots, and from...
A123 Systems Files Price Range Amendment
John Petersen This morning A123 Systems filed another registration statement amendment for its planned IPO. The amendment specifies a preliminary price range of $8.00 to $9.50 and a preliminary offering size of 25 million shares (28.85 million shares with over-allotment option). Amendments like today's filing occur during the late stages of an IPO and it's not unusual to see the price range or offering size increase in later filings. Both of the preliminary values are about half of what I expected. The price range surprises me because of its rough parity with the $9.20 per share...
Why Energy Storage Stocks Should be an Easy Double for Investors
For several months I’ve been writing about manufactured energy storage devices and the companies that develop and manufacture them. My basic theme has been that these devices are fundamental enabling technologies for cleantech, the sixth industrial revolution. I’ve repeatedly said that profound economic changes were rapidly evolving and that energy storage would be a major investment theme for decades to come, but even my unbridled optimism could not keep pace with the realities. While most investors have been focusing on obvious problems like bad mortgages, tight credit and recessions, immense changes in the energy sector have gone almost...
Geneva Motor Show Highlights – The Revenge of the Internal Combustion Engine
John Petersen March is Motor Show time in Geneva and it was fascinating to witness the shift in emphasis away from plug-in vehicles as European automakers highlighted their accomplishments in fuel efficiency technologies like HEVs, micro-hybrids and dual fuel drivetrains that can switch back and forth between gasoline and compressed natural gas. While there were modest displays for Tesla (TSLA), Fisker and other emerging brick-makers, and space was set aside for the obligatory plug-ins that most real manufacturers are toying with, the substantial majority of front-line vehicles at display entrances and halo cars on turntables were HEVs...
Altair Nanotechnologies Awarded $250,000 Grant for Advancement of Its Alternative Energy Program
Altair Nanomaterials (ALTI) announced that it has been awarded a $250,000 grant from the Indiana Advanced Energy Technologies Program (AETP) initiative. The grant funding must be used to manufacture products containing products that are not currently in the U.S. market, and that are above industry standard in terms of energy efficiency (e.g. hybrid automobiles, fuel cells) and/or incorporate an innovative technology, such as nanotechnology, that allows the product to save energy. The grant money will be used for test equipment for the manufacturing of lithium ion cells, batteries, and battery packs. The stock gapped open this...
EPA and NHTSA Predict 42% Market Penetration for Start-Stop Systems by 2016
John Petersen On April 1st the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration and the Environmental Protection Agency announced a joint final rule establishing fuel economy standards for all light duty vehicles sold in the United States. In my last article, I focused on the overall fuel efficiency improvements the new CAFE regulations will require. After spending a couple days reading and digesting the Final Rule Release, which runs to 1,469 pages, I've concluded that my initial optimism over the future of start-stop technology was understated. The Final Rule Release begins with several hundred pages of introductory...
Battery Investing For Beginners, Part 4
John Petersen In "The Sixth Revolution: The Coming of Cleantech," Merill Lynch strategist Steven Milunovich heralded cleantech as a new investment theme and forecast a period of gut wrenching change followed by an age of plenty. A few days later venture capital icon Vinod Khosla warned his audience “500 million people on earth enjoy a lifestyle that 9 billion people will want in 2050.” The differences between these two informed viewpoints are more than a little stark, but they highlight a frightening truth about cleantech: for the first time in human history the fundamental drivers of a technological...
Four Green Money Managers’ Top Stock Picks
Green money managers' stock picks after the Japanese nuclear crisis. Even as the nuclear disaster in Japan unfolds, it's clear that the world's energy industry will be forever changed. Russian reactors were never considered safe, but a Japanese to have a nuclear meltdown is an entirely different story. Market Reaction Since Monday, nuclear stocks and ETFs have been plummeting. As of Wednesday night, The Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF (NYSE:NLR), the iShares S&P Global Nuclear Energy Index (NASD:NUCL), PowerShares Global Nuclear Energy Portfolio ETF (NYSE:PKN), and the Global X Uranium ETF (NYSE:URA) are down...
Electro Energy, Inc. Successfully Integrates Patented Bipolar Battery Technology and Lithium Ion Technology
Electro Energy Inc (EEEI) announced it has successfully integrated its patented bipolar battery design with lithium ion technology to achieve a multi-cell prototype battery with increased discharge efficiency, reduced weight and volume, more flexible design, and lower manufacturing costs. This achievement combines, for the first time, proven bipolar wafer cell design with gel polymer electrolyte-based lithium ion (Li-ion) technology. The bipolar Li-ion (BP Li-ion) cells have the same positive attributes as Electro Energy's bipolar nickel-metal hydride (BP Ni-MH) design, which typically provides up to 50% more power, 30% lower volume and 25% lower manufacturing costs than competing technologies....
Nemaska: A Lithium Bargain
Nemaska Lithium (NMKEF: OTC/PK, NMX: TO) is a newcomer to the lithium industry. The company recently came to the market with battery-grade lithium from spodumene rock carved out of its Whabouchi mine in northern Quebec, Canada and converted in a proprietary electrochemical process to battery-grade lithium material at an in-house facility in Shawinigan to the south. The company filled its first orders in Summer 2018.
The company expected to produce over 200,000 metric tons of lithium-bearing spodumene concentrate from its Whabouchi mine with an average 6.25% lithium oxide content. The mine is expected to remain productive for over three decades at that extraction rate. The processing plant in...
Lead-acid Batteries and How Cheap Beat Cool at Google
On April 1st CNET News published a story about a previously secret technology that Google (GOOG) has patented and implemented system-wide. The technology, which Ben Jai of Google reportedly described as their "Manhattan Project," builds a 12-volt battery into each server to provide backup power. The point that fascinates me is Google's choice of small format valve regulated lead-acid batteries to keep its servers running. When an ultra-sophisticated company like Google picks cheap over cool for a mission critical function, I think it speaks volumes about the future direction of the energy storage industry. Stephen Shankland of...
