Grid-Based Energy Storage; Notes, Questions and Heresies from Storage Week
John Petersen Last week I had the pleasure of participating as a panelist in Infocast’s Storage Week and attending four days of presentations by industry executives, national thought leaders and policymakers. While most of the presentations were too detailed and specific for a blog about energy storage stocks, there were a few high-level discussions that may be interesting to readers and while I'll never qualify as a journalist I can at least share some of the thoughts I jotted down. Storage for Integration of Renewables Two of the most important presentations came from Dr....
PEM Electrolyzers – Cracking the Chicken and Egg Problem
by Ishaan Goel
The first article in this series introduced two prominent types of water electrolyzers – alkaline electrolyzers (ALKEs) and polymer electrolyte membrane electrolyzers (PEMEs). Electrolyzers are devices that convert water into hydrogen and oxygen using electricity. They enable energy storage through hydrogen when combined with fuel cells, and can decarbonize hydrogen production for industry if supplied with renewable power. Subsequent articles shall focus on various characteristics of these two electrolyzer variants.
The graph above shows the investment costs ($/kW) of PEMEs and ALKEs as the technology has advanced over time. In other words, they show the initial capital cost...
Congratulating A123 Systems On Its Very Successful IPO
John Petersen This morning Reuters is reporting that A123 Systems, Inc. (AONE) increased the number of shares offered in its IPO from 25 million to 28.1 million and sold those shares at a price of $13.50. If the underwriters exercise their overallotment option, which is usually the case in IPOs of this size, the total IPO proceeds will be $437.5 million before costs, commissions and discounts. This IPO has been a long time coming but it was worth the wait. I want to congratulate the A123 team and the underwriters on a job well done. Assuming full...
Exide: Bargain Basement Battery Stock Ready to Start
Tom Konrad CFA Exide's Sundancer Electric Car. Photo by Frank Lodge, EPA. Public Domain NOTE: Since this article was first published, Exide Technologies (NASD:XIDE) stock has risen 22% from $2.31 to $2.82, but much of that rise was due to media confusion about a positive Credit Suisse research report on the unrelated Indian company Exide Industries, Ltd. Details here. Exide Technologies (NASD:XIDE) is shutting down its battery recycling plant in Frisco, Texas, and selling the surrounding 180...
The Alternative Energy Fallacy
John Petersen In 2009, the world produced some 13.2 billion metric tons of hydrocarbons, or about 4,200 pounds for every man, woman and child on the planet. Burning those hydrocarbons poured roughly 31.3 billion metric tons of CO2 into our atmosphere. The basic premise of alternative energy is that widespread deployments of wind turbines, solar panels and electric vehicles will slash hydrocarbon consumption, reduce CO2 emissions and give us a cleaner, greener and healthier planet. That premise, however, is fatally flawed because our planet cannot produce enough non-ferrous industrial metals to make a meaningful difference and the prices...
Axion Power’s Potential For Explosive Growth
Tom Konrad, CFA Axion Power International, Inc. (OTC:AXPW) has been developing its patented PbC lead-carbon battery technology, and in 2013 those efforts seem on the verge of paying off. Unfortunately, Axion’s financing situation makes me unwilling to recommend its stock as an investment in the near term, but I do consider it one to watch. This article will take a look at Axion’s technology and near term potential markets. A follow-up article (published here) will discuss the company’s financing situation, and the things which will need to change before I consider the stock an...
Energy Storage – Opportunities and Intellectual Short Circuits
John Petersen After writing about investment opportunities in the energy storage sector for a couple of years, today marks an important transition because I've accepted Nadsaq's invitation to include my blog in the Community section of their website. I'm grateful for the chance to reach a broader audience and hope that my weekly musings can help new readers separate hype from opportunity and avoid the intellectual short-circuits that are all too common in the energy storage sector. By way of introduction, I'm a working lawyer and accountant who has spent 30 years guiding emerging energy and technology...
Last Battery Developer Standing
by Debra Fiakas CFA Advanced battery producer A123 Systems, Inc. (AONE: Nasdaq) has flamed out, with the cinders of its lithium ion technologies snapped up by Johnson Controls, Inc. (JCI: NYSE). Much has been written in the financial press over the past few weeks about the fate of A123 and the next step by Johnson Controls. What is more, because A123 had received government loan assistance, the political pundits have taken advantage of the company’s embarrassment to make their case for or against government in general and public alternative energy investment in particular. What really has me...
Exide: Many Alliances, Fewer Results
Debra Fiakas Alliance photo via BigStock Exide Technologies (XIDE: Nasdaq) is one of the largest transportation and industrial battery suppliers in the U.S., vying for market share with Johnson Controls (JCI: NYSE) and EnerSys (ENS: NYSE) among others. Batteries are a competitive business, even as the automotive sector has attempted a recovery from the 2008 free fall in new car sales. Electric vehicle and renewable energy storage applications have helped expand addressable market. However, for a conventional battery producer capturing a share of these...
Nick Hodge’s Night Time Solar Energy Tease
Tom Konrad, CFA NiMH battery company that's going to "make coal and oil obsolete" sleuthed out. I can't help but chuckle at the hyperbole of some promoters of alternative energy stocks. We can wish that coal and oil will be obsolete tomorrow all we want, but it ain't gonna happen. That's just what Nick Hodge was claiming in a recent teaser for Highpower Technology (HPJ). How do I know it's Highpower that Hodge is hailing as the answer to all our hopes? Because Travis Johnson, the Stock Gumshoe told me so. Travis is the same...
Alice in EVland Part III; Cost Benefit Analysis For Dummies
John Petersen Sometimes I think bloggers like me are the real dummies. We spend so much time delving into the minutiae of a stock or sector that we manage to obscure the big picture with too much detail. I've certainly been guilty of that particular flaw over the last couple years and want to offer an apology to readers I've confused rather than enlightened. Yesterday a reader sent me a copy of a presentation that Exide Technologies (XIDE) used in its December 2010 Investor Meetings. The slide on page 6 of the presentation did a great job...
Maxwell’s 54% Q2 Growth: An Outlier, Not A Trend
Tom Konrad CFA When I wrote about Maxwell Technologies’(NASD:MXWL) earnings restatement earlier this month, I predicted that third quarter (Q3) earnings would be much worse than recent trends were leading investors to believe. I expected the stock would decline as analysts revised their expectations to reflect Maxwell’s weak short term prospects, allowing me to exit my short position, which I still hold. Sure enough, analysts have reduced their earnings expectations. Analyst consensus earnings expectations for Q3 have reversed from 13 cents to a 10 cent loss, while expectations for 2013 have plunged from 46 cents to 6 cents....
Ballard Terminates Azure Hydrogen Licenses; Can It Find A Better China Partner?
by Debra Fiakas CFA Before the open of the first trading day of 2015, fuel cell developer Ballard Power Systems (BLDP: Nasdaq) announced the termination of technology licenses to Azure Hydrogen, which was to have been Ballard’s introduction to the China market. The license agreements covered the sale of Ballard’s bus power module and telecom backup power system. Ballard has charged Azure with breaching the agreements and the two companies have apparently not been able to come to alternative terms. Azure had made sales in the China and not all of the equipment had been paid. ...
More Common Sense in Energy Storage Investing
John Petersen Since last week's article, Common Sense in Energy Storage Investing, was well-received by readers who've recently discovered this blog and want to better understand the energy storage sector, I've decided to continue with the theme and drill down deeper into some broad issues. Most of today's material is pretty basic stuff, but when the hype machine starts spinning a firm grasp on economic reality and investment fundamentals can be important to investors that want to avoid a boom and bust bubble like we had in corn ethanol. In the fall of 2008 I confessed to...
Smart DOE Battery Manufacturing Grants and Dilution For Dummies
John Petersen Last month I wrote about a very smart plan the DOE developed for $4.5 billion in smart grid grants authorized by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 ("ARRA"). I was particularly impressed that the DOE's plan created a functional public-private partnership where grants would be available to companies that could raise matching funds from private sources, but would be denied to companies that could not attract substantial private sector funding. While I hoped a similar plan would be adopted for $2 billion in ARRA battery manufacturing grants, my research was hindered by a broken link...
War With Iran? Buy Alternative Energy Stocks.
September is starting out as the month of speculation about a massive three day air strike on Iran. Is Bush ready to attack Iran while our troops are still trying to stabilize both Afghanistan and Iraq? In February, administration officials were denying it. The preparations now going on could simply be the stick part of a negotiating strategy; the bad cop to Russia's good cop. But Bush's chances of successful cooperation with Putin could be better. What if? If Bush does launch a massive three day air strike on Iran, what will that mean for alternative energy stocks? I...
