EPA Reneges on Trump’s Biofuels Deal
by Jim Lane
“EPA Reneges on Trump’s Biofuels Deal”, said the Iowa Renewable Fuels Association in reacting to the US Environmental Protection Agency’s new plans for fulfilling federal renewable fuel requirements. EPA released a proposed supplemental rule for the Renewable Fuel Standard today, and the bioeconomy is up in arms, and the outrage is centered in farm country, once a Trump bastion of support.
“IRFA members continue to stand by President Trump’s strong biofuels deal announced on Oct. 4, which was worked out with our elected champions and provided the necessary certainty that 15 billion gallons would mean 15 billion gallons, even after...
Earnings Roundup: Covanta, NFI Group, Green Plains Partners
by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA
Earnings Season Continues
Below are three more updates on second quarter earnings which I've been sharing with my Patreon supporters. If you'd like to support my writing and see those thoughts in a more timely manner, consider becoming a patron. becoming a patron.
For everyone else, I'm reprinting those thoughts below.
Covanta Earnings
(published August 2nd)
Waste to energy company Covanta Holding Corp (CVA) saw most of its business recovering towards the end of the second quarter. Management is reluctant to predict if the positive trend will continue into the third quarter and for the rest of the year, but...
The Proof in Ceres’ Pudding
by Debra Fiakas CFA Judging by stock prices, investors have decided Ceres, Inc. (CERE: Nasdaq) is the favorite horse in the cellulosic ethanol race - at least among those that have publicly traded stocks. Ceres develops and sells sorghum, switch grass and miscanthus seeds to feedstock growers that supply cellulosic ethanol mills. The stock is selling for a buck and change, which is far more impressive that the stocks of most companies that could be included in the “cellulosic biofuel” sector. Ceres announced fiscal second quarter 2014 results at the beginning of this month. The company...
A Decade Of Unexpected Curves In The Bioeconomy
By Jim Lane
Over the years we’ve all seen a lot of curveballs in the advanced bioeconomy. You see companies like Valero, which lobby the United States Congress with unbridled intensity to get rid of the Renewable Fuel Standard, on the verge of becoming the single-biggest producer of RINs in the United States (with news that they might take capacity at Diamond Green Diesel up to 540 million gallons).
You see companies like Solazyme which love the Renewable Fuel Standard and drive up to nearly a billion-dollar post-IPO valuation based on delivering fuels at volume, then announcing that there are even...
Green Star Products to Construct Total Bio-Refineries
Green Star Products Inc (GSPI) announced its plans to construct total Bio-Refinery Complexes for production of both biodiesel and biomass ethanol at each facility. The first Bio-Refinery is planned to be in North Carolina (see GSPI press release dated April 20, 2006) and the location of the second facility is to be announced soon in the northwestern sector of the United States. Each GSPI-designed Bio-Refinery will have a start-up production of between 10 or 20 million gallons per year with quick expansion capabilities. The facility infrastructure will be capable of expanding to 60 million gallons per year...
Billionaire Bailouts v. Biofuels
Trump in a pickle: support his beleaguered EPA Administrator over oil refinery bailouts, or rally his Midwestern farm-state base?
In Washington, Senator Chuck Grassley of Iowa tweeted:
“I’ve supported Pruitt but if he pushes changes to RFS that permanently cut ethanol by billions of gallons he will have broken Trump promise & he should step down & let someone else do the job of implementing Trump agenda if he refuses.”
Grassley explicitly called on Pruitt to back a key campaign pledge from 2016 that helped unlock farm state support and propel Trump into the White House.
1/19/16 Trump at IA Renewable fuels summit: EPA...
A Disappointing Supreme Court Biofuel Decision. Why It’s Not Over Yet
By Jim Lane
The case
Last week’s decision stems from a May 2018 challenge brought against EPA in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Tenth Circuit by the Renewable Fuels Association, the National Corn Growers Association, National Farmers Union, and the American Coalition for Ethanol, working together as the Biofuels Coalition. The petitioners argued that the small refinery exemptions were granted in direct contradiction to the statutory text and purpose of the RFS and challenged three waivers the EPA issued to refineries owned by HollyFrontier Corp. and CVR Energy Inc.’s Wynnewood Refining Co.
The case is HollyFrontier Cheyenne Refining, LLC v....
Covanta and Green Plains Partners Don’t Let A Crisis Go To Waste
by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA
Last week, two of the stocks in my Ten Clean Energy Stocks model portfolio cut their dividends. Covanta Holding Corp (CVA) dropped its quarterly payout from $0.25 to $0.08 (a 68% cut) while Green Plains Partners (GPP) slashed its quarterly distribution from $0.475 to $0.12, a drop of 74.75%.
Before reducing their dividends, both companies had payout ratios near 100%, meaning that substantially all of their free cash flow was going to pay dividends. In general, companies are very reluctant to cut their dividends because it is a signal that their management thinks they cannot grow...
Ethanol Producers Vs. California Air Resources Board
by Debra Fiakas CFA Sometime back Poet, LLC, the private producer of ethanol based in Sioux Falls, SD (my home state), filed a lawsuit against the State of California, strenuously objecting to rules related to ‘carbon intensity’ adopted by the California Air Resources Board (CARB) When the dust settled, the California rules were still standing and Poet skulked off to the appeals court. The appeal was filed this week in the California’s Fifth Appellate District in Fresno. Originally approved in 2009, California’s ‘low carbon fuel standard’ (LCFS) is aimed at sorting apples and oranges in the renewable...
Another Sign of Ethanol Oversupply in the Midwest
Priming the E85 Pump This Sunday, I had dinner with my aunt, who lives in Chicago. She recently bought an Impala LT (she's a loyal GM customer), and was surprised when she received a $1000 debit card with which to buy E-85, the 85% Ethanol, 15% gasoline blend used in flex-fuel vehicles. I was not able to find any web reference to this offer (including on the GM website), but Google still had a cached article from HowStuffWorks.com which explained: To help defray fuel costs, GM, as part of its "Live Green, Go Yellow" E85 ethanol...
Green Plains to Adopt Syngenta’s Enogen Corn Ethanol Tech Across Fleet
by Jim LaneGood news arrives from Minnesota that Syngenta has partnered with Green Plains (GPRE) to expand its use of Enogen corn enzyme technology across GPRE’s 1.5 billion gallon production platform.
The Enogen backstory
Enogen corn enzyme technology is an in-seed innovation available exclusively from Syngenta and features the first biotech corn output trait designed specifically to enhance ethanol production. Using modern biotechnology to deliver best-in-class alpha amylase enzyme directly in the grain, Enogen corn eliminates the need to add liquid alpha amylase and creates a win-win-win scenario by adding value for ethanol plants, corn growers and rural communities.
We reported in January that Syngenta had reached...
Solar Headwinds, Part I
How Solar PV is like Ethanol Tom Konrad, CFA High levels of competition in the the solar photovoltaic (PV) industry mean that buy-and-hold investors should look elsewhere. In May 2007, I published a competitive analysis of the corn Ethanol industry based on Michael Porter's classic Five Competitive Forces model. At the time, Ethanol stocks were flying high, but my conclusion was that "the prospective ethanol investor should be very careful about investing in corn ethanol producers at random." If anything, I understated the case. This chart shows three ethanol stocks that have survived since 2007. As...
Are Ethanol Companies Risky Investments?
By Neal Dikeman, Partner, Jane Capital Partners LLC, and Founding Contributor, Cleantechblog.com. He has no investments in or financial incentive related to ethanol or ethanol stocks. Are ethanol stocks risky long-term investments? We think they are. Don’t get me wrong, I’m a big fan of ethanol blended fuels for a whole host of reasons, I just don’t like ethanol as an investment. Here are six solid reasons to be very, very cautious. 1. Demand vs. supply – As with most regulatory driven markets, the demand has come on very fast behind the advent of renewable...
EPA’s 2018 Renewable Fuel Targets Disappoint Producers
In Washington, the Environmental Protection Agency released its final Renewable Fuel Standard renewable volume obligations for 2018. The agency finalized a total renewable fuel volume of 19.29 billion gallons , of which 4.29 BG is advanced biofuel, including 288 million gallons of cellulosic biofuel.
As the Renewable Fuels Association explained: “That leaves a 15 BG requirement for conventional renewable fuels like corn ethanol, consistent with the levels envisioned by Congress in the 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act. The 2018 total RFS volume finalized today represents a minor increase (10 million gallons) over the 2017 standards, and a modest increase...
Tax On E85 Renewable Fuel Soars
Jim Lane The US passed a dubious and historic milestone this week. The tax rate on E85 renewable fuels now exceeds 100% in some formulations. By comparison, the tax rate on E10 renewable fuel is running at an estimated 41% and the tax rate on straight gasoline is running at an estimated 35%. As Shakespeare observed in Measure by Measure, “some rise by sin, and some by virtue fall”. Now, the idea of a carbon tax is that governments are supposed to collect more tax against high-carbon fuels. Yet, policy in practice works the other way. The less carbon...
The Andersons: E14 Ethanol Blend
by Debra Fiakas CFA The Andersons (ANDE: Nasdaq) is not one of the first companies that comes to mind as an alternative energy company. However, ANDE has been in the Ethanol Group in our Beach Boys Index for some time. Ethanol is one of six revenue sources for The Andersons, contributing $743 million to the top line in the year 2012. That represents about 14% of The Anderson’s total revenue base. The company produces ethanol in four plants located in the Midwest with a production capacity of 330 million gallons per year. ...
