Wind

David Appleyard A dramatic turnaround in the wind technology supply chain could bring opportunities for qualified suppliers, finds research by BTM Consultant ApS. Over the past five years the whole of the wind technology supply chain has been in flux. The industry has seen a dramatic turnaround, with a negative supply situation for some key components and materials transformed into the current position, with a significant supply surplus. We present the key findings of the latest BTM Consult Supply Chain Assessment report. Slower than expected economic recovery in the U.S., combined with the eurozone sovereign...

Steve Sollheiser  Both Wind ETFs are showing interesting chart patterns. In the PowerShares Global Wind Energy Portfolio (PWND) chart we can see a Falling Wedge patern, that consists of two non-parallel trend lines that engulf price. The upwards trend line has been tested for 5 times, which is an indication of its strength. The support trend line was tested four times, which confirms its validity and the accuracy of the pattern. The Falling Wedge, contrary to intuition, is a Bullish pattern which predicts a breakout upwards and an uptrend in 68%...

Vestas' (VWDRY.PK) Board of Directors intend to grant management share options at a strike price one-third BELOW book value. The Board of Directors is rewarding management for its mismanagement and past profit warnings. This will not help restore investor confidence. Given Vestas' valuation, it is time for shareholders to stand up for their interests: Investors should vote against all nominees for Vestas Board of Directors at the AGM on March 29th. The strike price of Vestas' share option scheme is only the latest in a series of decisions disregarding shareholder interests. Vestas needs to change! Vestas needs a...

Tom Konrad CFA Image via Wikipedia Sticker Shock As I discussed in my article on investing in offshore wind power, Nstar (NYSE:NST) recently agreed to buy 27.5% of Cape Wind's 420MW planned output. Since National Grid (NYSE:NGG) has had a power purchase agreement (PPA) to buy 50% of the farm's output since 2010, Cape Wind now has enough capacity contracted to raise money for construction. The Nstar PPA has yet to be negotiated, but prices the PPA...

Tom Konrad CFA In my recent article on investing in offshore wind, I suggested that the market for offshore wind turbines was too competitive for turbine manufacturers to be a good investment at this time, but that companies which supply the power conversion and connection to the grid might be better.  I listed the following companies: Prysmian (PRYMF.PK) and General Cable (BGC), which supply power cables. ABB Group (ABB), and Alstom (AOMFF.PK) which supply many aspects of the power conversion and interconnection hardware needed...

Tom Konrad CFA Offshore Wind in the United States Last week, the long-embattled Cape Wind project got a break: Utility NStar(NST) agreed to buy 27.5% of the proposed offshore wind project's output.  Together with a previous power purchase agreement with National Grid (NGG), this gives Cape Wind a buyer for 77.5% of the project's total projected output.  Jim Gordon, Cape Wind's President speaking at Offshore Wind Power USA in Boston, called the NStar deal the "starting gun" for Cape Wind's financing round. Yet speakers and attendees at Offshore Wind Power USA agreed that the Cape Wind story...

By Lou Schwartz The Year of the Dragon has gotten off to an inauspicious start for the Chinese wind industry and in particular, Sinovel Wind Group Co. (Shanghai:601558, a.k.a. Sinovel), China's leading wind turbine manufacturer. In early February, with the official end to the “Spring Festival” only days away, Sinovel reported decidedly chilly preliminary estimates of its FY2011 performance, confirming that Sinovel and indeed the whole Chinese wind industry had, in the words of one Chinese wind industry insider “entered a winter that would be hard to endure”. Sinovel estimated that its net income for FY2011 declined by...

John Petersen During the fourteen years that I've lived in Switzerland, the Germans have been the world's staunchest supporters of green power and alternative energy. Their aggressive development of wind power was breathtaking, as was their warm embrace of photovoltaic power. Over the last few weeks, however, there has been an ominous change in the mainstream German media's tone as the political class finally comes to grips with the unpleasant reality that rooftop solar panels are worthless on short, grey winter days and "For weeks now, the 1.1 million solar power systems in Germany have generated almost no...

Tom Konrad CFA It's not often that I come across a new type of renewable energy and think, "This could really work."  But that's what I thought when I heard the concept for the downdraft tower proposed by Clean Wind Energy Tower (CWET.OB.) First, a couple caveats.  The concept is not new, it's been around 25 years in draft form. The physics is simple.  Build a very tall, hollow tower in a hot, dry climate; cool the air at the top with a mist of water (even salt water will work), and capture the resulting energy...

John Petersen Last week Societe Generale published a thematic research report titled "A new world order, when demand overtakes supply" which examines the macro-economic and demographic trends that will transform the global economy over the next 20 years. It mirrored the theme of Jeremy Grantham's April 2011 quarterly letter titled "Time to Wake Up: Days of Abundant Resources and Falling Prices Are Over Forever" and did a great job of summarizing an issue I touched on in "How PHEVs and EVs Will Sabotage America's Drive For Energy Independence." In the words of Societe Generale: "So, while...

John Petersen In 2009, the world produced some 13.2 billion metric tons of hydrocarbons, or about 4,200 pounds for every man, woman and child on the planet. Burning those hydrocarbons poured roughly 31.3 billion metric tons of CO2 into our atmosphere. The basic premise of alternative energy is that widespread deployments of wind turbines, solar panels and electric vehicles will slash hydrocarbon consumption, reduce CO2 emissions and give us a cleaner, greener and healthier planet. That premise, however, is fatally flawed because our planet cannot produce enough non-ferrous industrial metals to make a meaningful difference and the prices...

Debra Fiakas Angela Merkel’s coalition government may not have looked at the nuclear power question for anything more than a “cover your behind” solution.  Nonetheless, the wind industry sees last month’s decision to phase out Germany’s nuclear power generation industry by 2022 as  -  no pun intended  -  a windfall.  Policy makers say as much as half of the deficit left by the shutdown of nuclear power plants will need to be made up from other power sources, principally wind power. This is no small undertaking.  A total of 21,607 wind turbines with an overall...

Tom Konrad CFA What is AMSC stock worth? American Superconductor Corporation (AMSC) investors panicked yet again on June 1st when the company said it would delay filing its annual report, needing additional time to review its recognition of revenue from Sinovel Wind Group (601558.SS) in the last three quarters of their fiscal 2010 (July 2010 thru March 2011.)  The stock promptly dropped another 20+% and is trading for around $8 as I write, down over 70% since the start of the year.  The Story So Far The delayed annual report...

Tom Konrad CFA Owning a wind farm is about to become a lot less risky. Wind power is cheap, clean, uses no water, and emits no pollutants.  Yet wind is far from a perfect source of electricity, since the wind blows when and where it will.  While wind power will never be as constant as baseload power, geographic diversification and better dispatch procedures can go a long way to mitigate the problems to utilities caused by wind's variability.  Yet wind farm developers and financiers are at the mercy of the weather in their...

Tom Konrad CFA Sinovel's recent refusal to accept shipments from American Superconductor (AMSC) may be due to more than just a slowdown in the Chinese wind market. Many of my best ideas come from readers.  When American Superconductor (AMSC) announced that their largest customer, the Chinese Wind Power company (and the world's second largest wind turbine manufacturer) Sinovel (601558.SS) had refused shipments, and not yet paid for some previous deliveries, my first thought was that Sinovel's reasons would likely remain an enigma for several months.  I did not write anything, knowing that anything I said would...

Tom Konrad CFA I published my rebuttal to John Petersen's recent article "Gone With The Wind – Debunking Geographic Diversity" on November 1st last year.  It was titled Alternative Energy: The Paradigm is the Problem.  That article had two parts.  The first part focused on electric vehicles, and argued that the problem with the electric car was not electric propulsion, but the car paradigm.  I concluded that electric propulsion makes considerably more sense for electric bikes, trains, and buses.  John clearly understood that section, because he published an article just last week "Lux Research Confirms that...