How Weather Risk Transfer Can Help Wind & Solar Development
by Daryl Roberts
The Need To Accelerate Renewables Adoption
Renewables are growing rapidly as a percentage of new electric generation, but are still being assimilated too slowly and still constitute too small of a fraction of total generation, to be able to transition quickly enough to scale into a low carbon economy in time to mitigate climate change.
The issue of providing public support, with subsidies and other reallocation methods, is a politically charged subject. High carbon advocates, for example American Petroleum Institute, argues that support for renewables distorts the market. On the other hand, it has been argued, for example by...
Wind Fall
Debra Fiakas Angela Merkel’s coalition government may not have looked at the nuclear power question for anything more than a “cover your behind” solution. Nonetheless, the wind industry sees last month’s decision to phase out Germany’s nuclear power generation industry by 2022 as - no pun intended - a windfall. Policy makers say as much as half of the deficit left by the shutdown of nuclear power plants will need to be made up from other power sources, principally wind power. This is no small undertaking. A total of 21,607 wind turbines with an overall...
Another Look at the Algonquin Power Income Fund
Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA The Algonquin Power Income Fund (AGQNF.PK) has been one of my star performers in an excellent year. Is it still a good investment at these prices? Since I recommended the Algonquin Power Income Fund (AGQNF.PK/APF-UN.TO) in January as a renewable energy income stock for 2009, the company is up 69%, in addition to the C$0.02 monthly dividend, worth approximately another 8% through August on the US$1.82 purchase price, making it the second-best performing of my ten picks (after Cree, Inc (CREE).) However, since the major basis for my recommendation at the time was the...
Opposite Day Blows Wind Tower Stocks Offshore
Tom Konrad CFA Offshore Wind Farm photo via Bigstock Wind tower stocks having opposite day, or rather opposite week. When US-based wind power companies won a preliminary injunction to impose countervailing duties in a trade dispute against China, their stocks fell. They have continued to fall for the four trading days since the announcement. In fact, as the chart and table below show, wind tower stocks Trinity Industries (NYSE:TRN) and Broadwind (NASD:BWEN, red) have fallen more than the wind industry stocks as a whole (NYSE:FAN, green) and Siemens AG (NYSE:SI), the German energy...
Pattern Energy Investors Enjoy The Breeze
by Debra Fiakas CFA This week Pattern Energy Group’s (PEGI: Nasdaq), the independent wind power generator, is scheduled to report sales and earnings for the quarter ending September 2015. The company has cultivated a strong following among analysts for a company its size. Nine estimate contributions have gone into a consensus estimate of $87.2 million in sales for the quarter, resulting in a net loss of a penny per share. If achieved the sales hurdle would represent 22% growth over the same quarter last year. A penny loss may not seem impressive, but it is substantially better than...
Drawing the Right Lessons from the Texas "Wind" Emergency
On February 26, 2008, a drop in wind generation by about 1400 MW over ten minutes, coupled with an increase in demand of 4412 MW due to colder weather, and lower-than scheduled production from other power suppliers, led ERCOT, the Texas grid operator to cut 1100 MW of power to interruptible customers for about 90 minutes. Misconceptions All these facts come from a Reuters article misleadingly titled "Loss of wind causes Texas power grid emergency." I was dismayed a few weeks ago when this misleading reporting led the generally insightful Master Resource Report to conclude "This is a clear...
US wind energy to add 2,500 MW in 2005-industry
FPL Group Inc (FPL) The U.S. wind energy industry will add as much as 2,500 megawatts of new production capacity in 2005, more than previously expected, the American Wind Energy Association said on Tuesday. A megawatt of wind capacity can provide roughly the amount of electricity needed by 250 to 300 households, so the new forecast translates into the equivalent of power for some 700,000 homes, the group said.
ENDESA Starts up Its Biggest Wind Farm Complex in Spain
The Carballeira wind farm, constructed by ENDESA (ELE) subsidiary, Endesa Cogeneracion y Renovables (ECYR), has been connected to the grid. This completes the construction of the group's largest wind farm complex, which also includes the Bustelo and Faladoira plants, located in the area of As Pontes (A Coruna) and Xermade (Lugo). The wind farm complex has total installed capacity of 161 MW and is connected to the grid through via the Tesouro substation in As Pontes. The Carballeira wind farm, the last to be completed, has installed capacity of 24.42 MW, with 37 660kW wind turbines expected to...
Newsweek Special Report
"Experts generally agree that our current reliance on fossil fuels is unsustainable. Already oil is near $50 per barrel, and the great millions of Chinese and Indians destined to take to the road in the next decades have not yet gotten behind the wheel." This week Newsweek has written several special reports about alternative energy in all its forms. All of these reports can be found at the following link.
Oil & Alt Energy Redux
Charles Morand Last week, I conducted an analysis showing the lack of evidence supporting claims that oil and alt energy returns are strongly correlated (claims that sometimes come from outfits as reputable as Bank of America Merrill Lynch). I don't want to belabor this topic but I thought I would post the results of another, similar analysis I conducted following comments I received on how to improve the first one. In a nutshell, the comments suggested I do the following: 1) Look at daily correlations or even smaller periods, as "common knowledge" market...
Eneti and Brookfield Renewable Earnings
By Tom Konrad, Ph.D. CFA
Here are a couple earnings notes I shared last week with my Patreon followers.
Eneti, Inc. (NETI) - formerly Scorpio Bulkers (SALT)
Eneti completed its name and ticker change on February 8th. New ticker is NETI (formerly Scorpio Bulkers (SALT), which I recently wrote about here.
Highlights from February 2nd earnings report:
37 of the 47 vessels owned at the 3rd quarter have been sold or have completed sale agreements.
Net asset value is $23.94/share. Since most assets are cash or vessels held for sale, this number is basically accurate.
The stock is still a good buy...
GE, FPL expect boom in wind power business next year
U.S. power companies such as FPL Group Inc (FPL) that develop windmill farms will probably install a record number of turbines next year after Congress renewed the tax credit needed to make the plants cost effective. Over a thousand new windmills, typically twenty stories high with three 40-foot blades, will crop up in fields in Oklahoma, ranches in Colorado and off the coast of Massachusetts. U.S. wind power will increase by more than the 1,687 megawatts built in 2003, said Christine Real de Azua, a spokeswoman for the American Wind Energy Association, a trade group in Washington....
Zoltek Rebuffs Offers, But Quinn Isn’t Going Away
Tom Konrad On March fifth, St. Louis, MO based carbon fiber manufacturer Zolek’s (NASD:ZOLT) shares jumped 14% to $10.52, having traded as high as $11.70 intraday when Quinpario Partners LLC and allied investors disclosed a 10.13% stake in the company. Jeffry Quinn wants to help Zoltek penetrate new markets and increase its global presence. Quinpario is an investment firm focused on the specialty chemicals and performance materials sectors, and also based in St. Louis. The firm was founded in 2012 by Jeffry N. Quinn and several senior executives from Solutia Inc,...
Epic Changes Are Coming in the Electric Power, Transportation and Energy Storage Sectors
John Petersen Epic is the only word I can use to describe an evolving tragedy that killed tens of thousands of people, inflicted hundreds of billions in property damage, destroyed 3.5% of Japan's base-load power generating capacity in a heartbeat and will cause recurring aftershocks in the global electric power, transportation and energy storage sectors for decades. While I'd love to believe the worst is behind us, I fear the times of trouble have just begun. Since it's clear that Japan will have to turn inward and serve the urgent needs of its own population first, the...
Investors Expect Rapid Growth At Pattern Energy Group
Tom Konrad CFA Pattern Energy's Gulf Wind Farm in Armstrong, Texas Disclosure: Long BEP. Pattern Energy Group (NASD:PEGI, TSX:PEG) completed a very successful Initial Public Offering (IPO) on the Nasdaq and Toronto stock exchanges on September 27th. Not only did the shares price at $22, near the top of the expected range, but the underwriters exercised their full over allotment option to purchase 2.4 million shares in addition to the initial 16 million offered. Total proceeds from the offering were $404.8 million. Most of the proceeds went to Pattern Energy Group, LP (PEGLP) in consideration for a...
Sol-Wind: New Yieldco With A Tax Twist
By Tim Conneally The pool of public solar yieldcos keeps growing. Just before the Christmas holiday, Sol-Wind Renewable Power LP filed for a $100 million initial public offering with the Securities and Exchange Commission. This will be the eighth Yieldco to debut since 2013, and the stock will trade on the NYSE under the symbol SLWD. But there's something different about this one. Sol-Wind is a yieldco that utilizes a Master Limited Partnership (MLP) structure, so it will be taxed differently from the other Yieldcos. Generally speaking, a Yieldco is similar to MLPs by nature, but the taxation...
