Tom Konrad CFA

While the sun was shining
on most clean energy stocks in April, my ten clean energy picks for
2013 (
introduced
here) got relative showers. The Powershares Wilderhill
Clean Energy Index (
PBW)
was up a sunny 14.1% for April to 19.6% for the year, rising quickly
past my picks, which inched up a relatively meager 0.7% to 7.5% for
the year so far. Meanwhile, the broad universe of small stocks
gained 2.6% for a year to date gain of 15.1%, as measured by my
benchmark the iShares Russell 2000 Index (IWM).
The low volatility of my relatively value-oriented picks is so far
looking less attractive than it has in previous years, now that my
clean energy benchmark is on track for what looks like excellent
performance. Nevertheless, I remain optimistic that the clouds
will pass for many of these stocks which have so far failed to catch
investor attention.
The chart and table show individual stock performance for my ten
picks plus the
six alternative picks I presented in a second article.
Note that the fourth stock in the list is now Ameresco (NASD:
AMRC),
which I substituted for Maxwell Technologies (NASD:
MXWL)
last month. The return shown is that for Maxwell for Q1 and
Ameresco for the last month. Unmixed returns for these two
stocks are shown in the 'Six more' section.

Significant Events
Below, I highlight significant events I feel affected performance
of the stocks in these two lists.
Ticker
|
Company
|
April USD Return |
| TSX:WFI |
Waterfurnace Renewable Energy
|
-1.1% |
| NASD:LIME |
Lime Energy
|
0% |
| TSX:PFB |
PFB Corporation
|
-10.8% |
| NASD:AMRC |
Ameresco, Inc. |
-0.6% |
| Amsterdam:ACCEL |
Accell Group
|
9.8% |
| NASD:ZOLT |
Zoltek Companies, Inc.
|
6.6% |
| NASD:KNDI |
Kandi Technologies
|
6.2% |
| TSX-V:FVR |
Finavera Wind Energy
|
-15.0% |
| TSX:AXY |
Alterra Power
|
8.9% |
| NYSE:WM |
Waste Management
|
7.0% |
Alternative picks
|
| TSX:NFI |
New Flyer Industries
|
-5.2% |
| NYSE:LXU |
LSB Industries
|
-0.6% |
| NASD:MXWL |
Maxwell Technologies |
13.4%
|
| NYSE:PW |
Power REIT
|
-0.8% |
| NYSE:HTM |
US Geothermal
|
-13.2% |
| TSX:RPG |
Ram Power Group
|
-9.3% |
Ameresco, Inc. (NASD:AMRC)
Turnkey energy efficiency and renewable energy solution provider
and performance contractor Ameresco spent its first month in the
main portfolio going nowhere, but I see two developments behind the
scenes which bode well for its long-term prospects. First,
there seems to be some bipartisan support in Congress for
action
on energy efficiency, which is Ameresco's bread and
butter.
Second, in the course of its IPO,
Hannon
Armstrong Sustainable Infrastructure (
HASI)
revealed that it had received a private letter ruling from the IRS
which allows HASI to treat the
securitized
performance contracts it specializes in as mortgages on real
estate assets. This means performance contracts can be
held within the in tax-advantaged REIT structure, and, over the next
couple years, should open up a new source of low cost capital to be
deployed by performance contractors such as Ameresco.
Accell Group (Amsterdam:ACCEL)
Bicycle manufacturer and distributor Accell Group held its annual
general meeting (AGM) where shareholders
approved
its €0.75 (5.6%) annual dividend. The Stock went
ex-dividend on April 29th, but still ended up 4.2% for the
month. Although the annual report was published in March, the
stock seemed to be responding to positive comments in the
AGM
presentation (
Google
translation).
Accell grew sales by 20% from acquisitions and 3% organically in
2012, despite a tough bike market, led by strong electric bike and
North American sales but hurt by slow sales in its Dutch home
market, where the company will conduct a reorganization to cut
costs.
The company announced it had arranged for up to €300 million in
credit from six banks, which the company intends to use to pursue
further acquisitions on top of expected sales and profit
growth. Accell is well placed as an experienced consolidator
in a fragmented industry given its access to capital when many
smaller brands and
distributors
are having difficulty raising financing.
Zoltek Companies (NASD:ZOLT)
Carbon fiber manufacturer Zoltek continued to appreciate. I
took the opportunity to reduce my exposure to this stock because the
promise of further gains have to be set against the risk that the
company's board is using its review of strategic options (discussed
in the
last
update) as a pretext, and is not serious about considering the
proposals put forward by turn-around specialist Quinparo group and
its allies, or any other outside offers.
Kandi Technologies (NASD:KNDI)
Chinese EV and off road vehicle manufacturer rallied on announced
progress
in its joint venture with leading Chinese Auto manufacturer
Geely, as well as a series of
positive
articles
from its
supporters
on Seeking Alpha. Although the company is exceedingly
cheap by any conventional valuation, its shares have long been held
back articles alleging improprieties in the way it went public in
the US through a reverse merger and
misreporting
of its US EV sales from 2009 to 2011. I had intended to boost
the stock myself by tackling these allegations head-on in an article
last month, but instead found myself troubled by the misreported
sales.
Kandi's supporters will
say
that all this is ancient history, and the result of
inadvertent errors which have since been corrected.. The
problem with history, ancient or otherwise, is that if we don't
learn from it, we're doomed to repeat it. Much of Kandi's
recent progress is corroborated by third party sources, and I'm
confident that Kandi will benefit from Beijing's push for rapid
growth in EV sales if any automaker does. However, the history
of exaggeration by the company has undermined my confidence in
Kandi's financial reporting. The all-important numbers in
Kandi's financial reports remain impossible to corroborate.
Did Kandi really sell almost 4,000 EVs in 2012, as the company
claims and I relayed in the last update? I find it impossible
to be sure.
Given these doubts, I took advantage of the recent rally to greatly
reduce my exposure to the stock.
I still plan to write that article, after interviewing both Kandi's
supporters and detractors. Perhaps one side or the other will
help me make up my mind.
Finavera Wind Energy (TSX-V:FVR, OTC:FNVRF)
Wind developer Finavera finalized its long-awaited agreement with
Pattern Energy holdings. The revised deal is smaller than the
companies had originally envisioned in December, but still contains
the most important aspects which should solve Finavera's liquidity
problems. I interviewed
Finavera's
CEO and covered the finalized deal in detail here.
Alterra Power (TSX:AXY,
OTC:MGMXF)
Diversified renewable energy developer Alterra power seems to have
bottomed, with the turn-around likely triggered by a purchase of 15
million shares of stock by well respected mining magnate Ross
Beaty. Beaty, who is Alterra's founder and chairman,
says
the stock should be worth C$0.90, not the C$0.32 it is currently
trading for. He intended his purchase to demonstrate that
conviction, and hinted that the might buy the whole company and take
it private if the stock stays at its current levels.
At the end of the month, Alterra announced a partnership with
Greenbriar Capital to (TSXV:
GRB)
develop 100 MW of solar in Puerto Rico. This fits well with
Alterra's strategy of diversifying into solar and wind from its base
of geothermal and run-of-river hydropower assets, so I would not
have considered it even worth mentioning except that Greenbriar's
CEO is none other than Jeff Ciachurski, whom I am all to familiar
with after covering
Western
Wind Energy for over two years.
Ciachurski built up Western Wind from nearly nothing to a sale for
C$182 million to Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners (TSX:BEP-UN,
OTC:
BRPFF)
in March while relying entirely on bank financing.
Shareholders like myself who got in at the right time did very well,
but a development partnership with Pacific Hydro ended in a lawsuit
and eventual settlement, with Western Wind keeping the development
assets. My assessment of Ciachurski is that he is good at developing
renewable energy projects on a shoestring, and working the system of
a public company to pay himself very handsomely for doing so.
Shareholders and development partners may also profit, given good
timing and better legal representation.
I trust that Alterra's management is well aware of this, and
Alterra's CEO and IR representative have agreed to an email
interview in which I hope to get some more insight into their
perspective on the Greenbriar partnership. I suspect they are
already aware of my opinion of Ciachurski: When I first inquired
about an interview, Alterra's IR representative was confident I
could speak with Alterra's CEO, John Carson. A day later, he
got back to me, saying Carson was unavailable for an interview, but
he would relay my questions. I suspect that someone at Alterra
made the connection to my rather
public
disagreement with Ciachurski over the sale of Western Wind to
Brookfield in the intervening day, and they were worried I
might ask Carson uncomfortable questions about the relationship.
Waste Management (NYSE:WM)
Waste Management was up 7% in April. The company's first quarter
results missed expectations by a penny, but analysts liked what they
heard about the company's expectations of future profits, based
positive pricing trends, an increase in volumes in the first
quarter, and cost control.
Six Alternative Clean Energy Stocks
LSB Industries (NYSE:LXU)
Chemicals and climate control company LSB Industries also seems to have bottomed out.
In the absence of news, I think much of its decline since the start
of February may be explained by rising prices for natural gas, but
the stock seems to me to have fallen too far. While I was
selling when the company was over $42 in February, I was buying in
April when the company was below $32.
Maxwell Technologies (NASD:MXWL)
Ultracapacitor firm Maxwell rallied 13.4% on the back of
unaudited
financial highlights for the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2012 and
first quarter (Q1) of 2013. Invoiced shipments were down 1.5%
compared to reported revenues from the previous year in Q4, but up
19% in Q1 from the previous year's reported revenue. The
company is not currently reporting quarterly revenues because
improper revenue recognition is why the company is having to restate
previous financial statements. The company attributes the
strong Q1 invoicing to a surge in demand for ultracapicitors for
buses in China after a government subsidy program was reinstated,
but is unable to predict if this demand will prove durable.
Perhaps Lime Energy's (NASD:LIME)
stock would be doing better if they'd taken a page from Maxwell's
book and provided unaudited quarterly updates on sales even while
they are sorting through the mess of the last several years'
financial statements.
Power REIT (NYSE:PW)
Power REIT took one more step along the road to becoming a
renewable energy focused Real Estate Investment Trust by signing a
term sheet for the acquisition of 100 acres of land underlying
approximately 20MW of to-be-constructed solar projects with
existing power purchase agreements to sell power to Pacific Gas
and Electric (NYSE:PCG) and Southern California Edison
(NYSE:SCE.) PW will pay approximately $1.6 million for the
land. Unlike PW's proof of concept deal for land under a
solar farm signed in December, this deal is with an established
solar developer with a proven track record. As such, it could lead
to a series of future deals with PW providing the financing for
land under many solar project in the future. Such an
assembly line approach will be key to PW building its portfolio of
renewable assets without excessive demands on management time.
Power REIT plans to finance the deal with a combination of equity
and debt. The equity will be raised under PW's existing At
Market Issuance Sales Agreement, meaning that the stock will
be sold to ordinary investors bidding on the New York Stock
Exchange. Investors who buy shares in PW over the coming
months will have a good chance of having their money go directly
to finance these solar projects.
US Geothermal (NYSE:HTM)
US Geothermal's long time CEO Daniel Kunz retired and was
replaced by Dennis Giles, who brings with him 23 years of experience
at Calpine Corporation (NYSE:
CPN),
a leading independent natural gas and geothermal independent power
producer. Kunz will stay on as a consultant to advise the
transition for one year. The stock fell on the news, and I
used the dip to increase my position because I expect the company to
achieve its first full year of profitability in 2013 with earnings
in excess of $0.04 per share based on power sales from its operating
plants. At $0.33, that would give HTM a forward price/earnings
ratio of 8 or lower, which I consider attractive.
The company also has room for growth from its expansion plans at
existing plants, and, longer term, the
commencement
of drilling at its El Ceibillo project in Guatemala.
Conclusion
My swap of Maxwell for Ameresco last month proved poorly timed,
but this portfolio is designed as a tool for infrequent
traders. It's only under extraordinary circumstances that I
move any stocks into or out of the portfolio in the middle of the
year. This can be seen from the fact that I sold much of my
holdings of both Kandi and Zoltek in April, but I'm leaving both
in portfolio.
The blistering performance of my clean energy benchmark PBW in
April has much to do with a rally of always volatile solar
stocks. I can't say if that rally will continue for the rest
of the year. I've spent so long focusing on other clean
energy sectors because of the poor industry structure I see in
Solar that I simply don't have the solar expertise to judge if
this current solar rally is the start of something bigger, or will
prove to be just one more abortive flash in the pan.
A continued economic recovery along with industry consolidation
could continue to allow solar stocks to shine, with other clean
energy stocks following close behind. On the other hand,
such trends can reverse as quickly as they started. This is
why I've significantly reduced my exposure to Zoltek and
Kandi. At Zoltek, price appreciation has reduced the
inherent protection of the company's former inexpensive
valuation. At Kandi, the valuation still appears extremely
cheap, but I've become more cautious about judging the company
solely on appearances. In both cases, discretion seems the better
part of valor.
Disclosure: Long WFI, LIME, PFB, ACCEL, ZOLT, KNDI, FVR, AXY,
WM, NFI, LXU, AMRC,PW, HTM, RPG. Short: MXWL.
DISCLAIMER: Past performance is
not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results.
This article contains the current opinions of the author and
such opinions are subject to change without notice. This
article has been distributed for informational purposes only.
Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein
should not be considered as investment advice or a
recommendation of any particular security, strategy or
investment product. Information contained herein has been
obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not
guaranteed.