From:                              Stephanie Aldock [eer@emerging-energy.com]

Sent:                               June-04-09 3:59 PM

To:                                   Charles Morand

Subject:                          FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE - For US Wind Industry, 2009 Downturn to Give Way to 2010 Surge

 

 

For More Information:

Matt Kaplan
Senior Analyst
617 551 8583
mkaplan@emerging-energy.com

Stephanie Aldock
Marketing Director
240-481-3339
saldock@emerging-energy.com



Map of Major OEM US Manufacturing Investments

Source: Emerging Energy Research

For US Wind Industry, 2009 Downturn to Give Way to 2010 Surge: New Study from EER

Cambridge, MA 4 June 2009 – Beyond near-term market uncertainty created by the financial crisis, the longer-term prospects for the US wind industry remain strong, according to a new study from Emerging Energy Research, a Cambridge, MA-based advisory firm. While a rapidly growing US wind market—expanding at an average annual growth rate of 40% since 2005—has slowed down to pre-2008 levels, the market is expected to bounceback as soon as 2010, according to EER.

In the near-term, EER forecasts that 2009 wind capacity additions may drop as low as 6.5 GW, 24% below 2008’s record levels. But, with a return to liquidity in wind project debt and tax equity markets, EER anticipates a potential rebound of 9 GW of wind capacity additions in 2010 and 11 GW in 2011. “The US wind industry may post its strongest year ever in 2010 when the incentive-laced economic stimulus begins to show returns and transmission build-out reaches market," says EER Senior Analyst Matthew Kaplan.

Exhibit: Map of Major OEM US Manufacturing Investments



Source: Emerging Energy Research

According to findings from EER’s new US wind market study, the following trends signal a positive outlook for US wind markets:

- US wind gets short-term boost from new federal incentives: The Obama Administration’s economic stimulus package provides several new tax equity financing options for US wind projects installed in 2009-2010. The provision of a 30% Investment Tax Credit (ITC) with Treasury grant options could help to considerably drive near-term growth, according to EER.

- State Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) drive US wind growth with building momentum toward a national RPS: Momentum behind the establishment of a national renewable portfolio standard is growing and would help to build demand for renewables as part of the country’s energy future, according to EER. “One RPS currently under consideration would require 20% of electricity from renewable by 2020,” says Kaplan. “With wind as the fastest growing renewable energy source, this could have a huge impact,” says Kaplan.

- Transmission build out positions US wind for long-term development: Build-out of major new inter-state transmission aiming to unlock high-wind resources in the US Midwest and Southwest regions is of great importance in key US wind states such as Texas, California, the Dakotas, and Wyoming. “The ability of US transmission grid infrastructure to sustain new wind development will present the greatest long-term challenge to steady market growth,” according to Kaplan.

- Major investments in US wind turbine manufacturing facilities remain on track: Confidence in the long term stability of US policy support has led to dozens of announcements of new US manufacturing facilities for wind turbines and their components. “While the economic downturn has delayed some of these projects, recent investment commitments nearing $1 billion alone from leading European turbine OEMs Vestas, Siemens and Nordex provide a strong indicator of the US wind market’s long term prospects,” says Kaplan.

- US regulated utilities extend commitment to wind power ownership: In regions of the US where regulated utilities are allowed to build and own new generation assets – primarily the Midwest, Southwest, and Pacific Northwest –utility rate-based wind ownership activity has continued to proliferate and diversify. In many of these regions, utilities are undertaking long-term plans to build, own and operate wind assets, often with project development partners.

Under EER’s base-case forecast scenario, US annual wind power growth will increase from 8.5 GW in 2008 to nearly 15.5 GW by 2020. “The US wind market is facing serious challenges in the short-term in terms of liquidity and credit, but the market will recover and longer-term market fundamentals remain strong,” says Kaplan.

About the Study

EER's new study - US Wind Power Markets and Strategies, 2009-2020 -  provides 270 pages of critical strategic and tactical support for those seeking to stay competitive in US wind industry analyzing the opportunities, measuring the impact of market shifts, and providing strategic analysis on key players' strategies. Follow this link for the study's Table of Contents and Order Information

About Emerging Energy Research

Emerging Energy Research is the leading provider of analysis on clean and renewable energy markets. With offices in Cambridge, Massachusetts and Barcelona, Spain, EER provides strategic advice to over 1,000 stakeholders across the emerging energy industry, providing market research, support, and analysis to executives and decision-makers at utilities, developers, independent power producers, technology promoters, manufacturers, and investment companies. For more information visit www.emerging-energy.com

 

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