On November 27, I attended the National
Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) Fifth
Energy Analysis Forum, hosted by NREL's
Strategic Energy Analysis & Applications Center. The forum focused
on carbon policy design, the implications for Renewable Energy and Energy
Efficiency. As a stock analyst focused on that sector, I am extremely lucky
to have NREL as a local resource: the quality and the level of the experts at
NREL and the ones they bring in is probably not matched anywhere in the country,
and conferences like these provide priceless insights into what these Energy
Analysts are thinking.
Why should investors care what analyst think about the best form of carbon
regulation, when it will be the politicians who eventually implement it?
Because these are the very experts politicians will call on when designing their
legislation. While interest groups will also undoubtedly have a large say
in regulation, they are unlikely to come up with new ideas which help
shape future regulation. The new ideas will come from the 50 or so
analysts that gathered in Lakewood last Tuesday, and the regulations based on
these ideas will be critical to the business plans of the companies we invest
in.
This
is a link to my notes. I will likely find many investment ideas there,
only some of which will make it into articles. For those with the time and
interest, I expect they will be a valuable resource. For the other 99% of
readers, here are ten interesting, intriguing, or just plain surprising ideas
that pop out for me.
From Howard Gruenspecht,
Deputy Administrator: Energy
Information Administration
INSIGHT #1: "Clean Coal" is a Solution to a
Political Problem
Integrated
Gasification Combined Cycle with Carbon Capture and Sequestration (IGCC w/
CCS or "Clean Coal") is popular with legislators because it is a
solution to a political problem, not because the technology is ready or
because analysts expect it to be the most economical solution. Nuclear power
is likely to be cheaper, and it is an existing technology.
INSIGHT #2: Electricity Generation may be a Better Use of
Biomass than Liquid Fuels
If the goal is to reduce net carbon emissions, burning biomass for electricity
(either by cofiring in coal power plants, or in dedicated biomass generation
stations) is more effective than using the same biomass to produce liquid
fuels, such as cellulosic ethanol. TK note: I believe that many
investors in companies developing methods to produce cellulosic ethanol are
underestimating the competition for available feedstock from biomass based
electricity generation.
From Joe Kruger,
Policy Director National
Commission on Energy Policy
INSIGHT #3: Electricity Generators May Get Windfall Profits
Allocation of Emission Credits is likely to create windfall profits for
existing generators except in carefully designed auctions.
From Eric Smith, EPA Climate Economics
Branch.
INSIGHT #4: EPA May Have to Regulate More than Tailpipes
Because of the Massachusetts
vs. EPA lawsuit, the EPA must now regulate Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions
from automobile tailpipes. The EPA is now studying GHG, and if the EPA
concludes that GHG represent an endangerment to the public, the EPA will be
forced to regulate GHG emissions from many more sources than just vehicles.
From Rich Cowart, Regulatory
Assistance Project
INSIGHT #5: It's Better to Allocate Credits to Electricity Distributors
than Producers
Greenhouse Gasses need not be regulated at power generators, and other
approaches may lead to more efficient reductions. Mr. Cowart was introduced
as "Father of the Load-based Cap," in which GHG emissions are
distributed to power distributors on behalf of their customers. Carbon
regulation can occur anywhere from the mine/wellhead when a fossil fuel is
first taken from the ground, to the final consumer. Where this
regulation takes place matters because different actors have different
abilities to change the way power is consumed. Mr. Cowart argues
effectively that for the electricity and natural gas sectors, energy
distribution companies are best placed to work with consumers to reduce
overall energy use.
BONUS INSIGHT (my own): China Can Build Coal Plants, But We Can Cap
Their Emissions
Worries about the number of coal plants built in China and other developing
countries might be best dealt with by applying carbon regulation at the mine
mouth. China
is now a net coal importer. Given that, the rest of the world does
not need China's acquiescence to regulate carbon emissions: the coal exporters
of the world could form an Organization of Coal Exporting Countries (OCEC),
which would effectively be able to limit the total amount of coal burned
around the globe. The United States, which I
have previously called the "Saudi Arabia of Coal," could play
the role of the swing producer, much as Saudi Arabia has traditionally
played in OPEC.
From Karl S. Michael, NYSERDA
From Karl S. Michael, NYSERDA
INSIGHT #6: Reggie Never Asked, "Where are GHGs best
Regulated?"
The Northeast Regional Greenhouse Gas
Initiative (RGGI, or "Reggie") will be an emissions cap on power
plants because the question was never asked: are power plants the right place
to regulate Greenhouse Gasses? Future climate regulations should ask
this question up front.
Todd Litman, Victoria
Transport Policy Institute. I've long been a fan of Todd Litman.
Among other things, his comprehensive economic analysis was very influential in
providing the ideas for my recent articles Investing
in Mode-shifting, and my current love affair with commuter
rail stocks.
INSIGHT #7: A Carectomy is
Better than a Better Car
Regulations designed to solve a single problem often end up making others
much worse. For instance, an increase in CAFE standards will make
vehicles more efficient, lowering fuel costs. Driving will rise somewhat
because it is less expensive, but this will only reduce the fuel savings by a
small amount. However, the increased distances driven will increase accidents,
congestion, parking costs, road costs, and other indirect costs to society,
and these costs are likely to swamp the savings from better fuel economy.
Society would be better served by policies which reduce driving, rather than
increase it.
INSIGHT #8: Put the Car back into "A La Carte."
The current pricing system for driving is like the "all you can eat
buffet." It encourages people to over-consume (drive too much)
because the marginal cost of driving (fuel and maintenance) is only a small
fraction of the average cost of driving, which consists mainly of fixed costs
such as vehicle ownership and parking costs. Since most of the
costs to society of driving are correlated to the number of miles driven (road
safety, road maintenance, pollution), this leads to much higher costs to
society for increased driving than to the individual. The
all-you-can-eat pricing model is also unfair to the poor, because it makes it
impossible for many to drive at all, when an a-la-carte pricing model would
allow them to drive small amounts for essential trips.
Mark Meliana, NREL Hydrogen
Technologies Program, speaking of California's Low
Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS), on which he worked until recently being hired
by NREL.
INSIGHT #9: Some Fuels are Better than Others
The California LCFS incorporates "Drive Train Efficiency" for
different fuels, which reflects the quality of the energy in various
transportation fuels. A Btu of electricity is worth a lot more than a
Btu of gasoline, because electric motors are inherently more efficient (by a
factor of 5) than gasoline engines. This is completely independent of
vehicle aerodynamics, and drive train design, factors which will also effect
efficiency. Diesel engines are inherently 1.28 times as efficient (on a
Btu basis) than gasoline engines, while hydrogen is 2.13x as efficient, and
electric motors are 5 times as efficient as gasoline engines. This is
why an electric vehicle powered by electricity from a coal plant is still much
less carbon intensive than a gasoline powered vehicle. These numbers are
the inverse of the factor "eta" in the LCFS.
John Sheehan, Live Fuels (formerly of
NRELs Biofuels division.) Incidentally, I had the opportunity to hear John
speak (PDF
100 KB, (Powerpoint
4.5 MB) over a year ago while he was still at NREL. At that time, he
was constrained in expressing his opinion about conventional biofuels... this time he
didn't pull any punches.
INSIGHT #10: Water is the 800 Pound Gorilla
Narrowly defined incentives in biofuel policy are likely to lead to more
boondoggles as we have seen in the domestic corn ethanol and biodiesel industries
(see
notes for specifics.) Water use is "the 800 pound gorilla" we
need to be talking about when considering which biofuels we can sustainably
produce.
Final Thoughts: For analysts, it's clear that a narrow focus, be it in
biofuels, transportation policy, or allocation of GHG allowances, will lead to
more perverse effects. For investors, we need to be aware that the perverse
effects of bad policy will eventually fail to sustain an unsustainable model, as
investors have recently learned about corn ethanol. On the other hand,
shorter term investors may be able to profit handsomely from regulatory
windfalls, a trend we have also seen in corn ethanol.
Will likely policies which will be designed to encourage IGCC
and a focus on cheaper driving rather than more efficient transport in the
future follow this same pattern? They may, and it is likely to lead to
substantial costs to society and investors who jump on the trends at the wrong
time.
In contrast, good policies will allow investors to do well by doing good, and
profit as companies solve societal problems, rather than reaping transient
rewards at the taxpayer's expense. These good policies include load-based
rather than generation based carbon caps, which will allow energy efficiency
companies to more easily reduce consumers' electric bills and make profits for their
shareholders. Likewise, transport policies which provide viable
alternatives to driving and incentives to use those alternatives will allow
investors in alternative transit to profit while reducing commuting costs,
traffic fatalities, congestion, pollution, and greenhouse gas emissions.
We all like making money in the market. Good energy analysts, like the
ones at this forum, are working to provide us the opportunity not only to make
money, but to solve societal and environmental problems at the same time. For
that, we're all lucky to have them.
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