Charles Morand
Tom and I recently received complimentary copies of a new book called "
Investment Opportunities for a Low Carbon World", edited
FTSE Group's Director of Responsible Investment Will Oulton*.
The book is a compendium of articles by 31 different authors broken
down into three main categories: (1) environmental and low-carbon
technologies; (2) investment approaches, products and markets; and (3)
regulation, incentives, investor and company case studies.
While Tom will provide a comprehensive review of the book once he's
finished reading it in its entirety, I will instead review a few
selected chapters over the course of the next couple of weeks.
I decided on this approach as that is how I generally use such a
resource; I select the chapters and authors that I am
interested in and I read only what I selected. That said, the majority
of chapters in this book were of interest to me and I ended up
selecting 19 out of 27 that I'm going to read (I won't be reviewing
them all!) Truth be told, reviewing the contents section made me feel
like a kid in a candy store and I suspect that most alt energy
investing aficionados would feel the same. If I like what I read, I
will most likely finish the book.
This first post provides reviews of Chapters 1 and 2 on the
wind and
solar sectors.
Wind Power
By Mark Thompson, Tiptree Investments ltd
I tend to consider myself pretty well-versed in all things wind power,
and so I was especially eager to read this chapter. Overall, I was very
pleasantly surprised.
The author provides a good review of the wind turbine and wind turbine
component industries. I especially enjoyed the technical discussion on
turbine size and optimizing turbine output, which will become a
critical competitive element for turbine makers.
For instance, we learn that because of the
relationship between diameter and surface area for a circle, the
power
of one machine can be increased to match that of several smaller
machines by simply lengthening the blades, thus lowering requirements
for a range of other components and materials (for instance, two
turbines with rotor diameters of 40 meters will have a power output of
about 1000 kW, whereas one turbine with a rotor diameter of 80 meters
can power 2500 kW.) Because of the mathematics of this, power output
increases acheived through longer blades should further improve the
economics of wind, so this is definitely a trend worth keeping an eye
on.
We also learn that while the turbine market has been chronically under
supplied for the past few years, conferring the incumbents an
appreciable amount of market power - the author estimates that the top
six makers hold a combined 84% market share -, barriers to entry remain
high and very difficult to surmount for would-be suppliers. Concerns
over quality, durability, track-record and the strength of the balance
sheet to support warranties are all factors that make it very difficult
to secure funding for projects using a newcomer's technology. It is
fair to say that Thompson is bearish on new market entrants.
Finally, we learn that the trend toward turbine makers internalizing
sub-component design and manufacturing is restricting investment
opportunities in pure-play supply chain opportunities.
However, what I enjoyed the most about this chapter was the detailed
overview of how wind projects are built and what factors make them
successful. When it comes to wind power, investment commentators tend
to focus on turbines and turbine components, even though very
interesting opportunities exist in the project development and
operation space. In the author's words: "the development process offers
some of the best returns in the sector [...]."
One key point made by the author in that regard is that headline
figures about the size of various developers' portfolios are rarely -
if ever - comparable given the various developments stages involved in
bringing a project into operation. The risk-return profile for
pure-play wind power developers is far more driven by the quality of
the projects than by the size of the portfolio. However, disclosure
tends to be weak in that regard, making it difficult for small
investors to gauge the real value of a portfolio.
Overall, I thoroughly enjoyed this chapter. In my view, the information
would be most useful to a fundamentally-driven investor looking to
really understand how wind power and the wind power industry really
work. While the chapter does not answer every question an investor
might have, it nonetheless provides the right balance of technical and
business information to set someone on the right path. It is a
reference to which I will go back.
Those looking primarily for stock picks, however, will be disappointed.
The lack of stock picks is probably the chapter's weakest point,
especially given that the book is purportedly about investment
opportunities. Having said that, investment ideas abound on the
Internet these days and books focused too heavily on providing stock
picks at the expense of more general information risk
having very short shelf-lives.
Solar Power
By Matthias Fawer, Bank Sarasin
Writing a book or a book chapter on
solar power,
especially solar PV, is always a risky endeavor as the information
could be outdated 12 months after publication. I thus salute the effort
of those who undertake to do it, but in my view this sector is best
left to specialist consultancies and sell-side analysts because they
can easily update their analysis when conditions change, something that
happens frequently in the world of solar PV.
Matthias Fawer's chapter does, in a lot of ways, read like a sell-side report. It covers three broad sub-sectors of solar: (1)
solar photovoltaic; (b)
solar thermal; and (c)
solar collectors.
Other than for solar thermal, the way in which the chapter is written
assumes the reader already has a fair bit of solar knowledge. For
instance, unlike your typical generalist piece on solar PV, few if any
details are provided on what the main solar PV cell technologies are,
how they compare in terms of price and performance and which company
makes them.
The advantage of this approach is that it allows the author to jump
straight into industry-level dynamics and not waste precious space
explaining what many people already know. For instance, we learn fairly
early on that Bank Sarasin sees silicon cell production appreciably
outpacing module production until about 2012, potentially providing
module makers with a margin expansion opportunity. We also learn that
the plant engineering firms that had done so well when every cell
manufacturer and their grandmother was adding production capacity
during 2007 and 2008 could underperform in the next few years.
Of course the drawback from not providing a lot of technical background
is that it makes the chapter a lot less useful for the novice solar
investor, or even for the investor who knows a little bit but does not
follow the industry closely. The author does, however, provide a
ranking of the "strategic positioning" of 27 solar PV firms based on a
proprietary model, with his top pick being
Q-Cells (QCLSF.PK) from Germany.
The section on solar thermal, also known as concentrating solar power
(CSP), contains more basic information on the technology, and provides
an overall very good introduction to the sector. Unfortunately, there
is a
dearth of CSP investment options, and this sector is thus effectively off-limit to most retail investors.
The section I liked the most in the chapter was the one on
solar collectors
for building and water heating, an industry I knew about but had never
researched. I learned, much to my amazement, that by the end of 2008
there was 142 GW of solar collector capacity installed worldwide,
versus 12 GW of solar PV and 1.3 GW of CSP.
China is by far the largest market for solar collectors and, unlike in
other industries, it absorbs, according to the author, 90% of its own
production. Fawer expects annual growth to be about 25% until 2011 and
to settle at 18% between 2011 and 2020. However, the much larger
installed base currently means that the absolute level of new
installations could be quite massive. Although the section on solar
collector does not provide stock picks, it most definitely poked my
interest and convinced me to look further into this.
Overall, while I was a bit underwhelmed by the solar PV section, I
found the CSP section useful and the section on solar collectors very
interesting. A greater technical focus would have strengthened the
chapter given how technologically complex solar is, and more stock
picks would have been appreciated. However, I will definitely go back
to the chapter when I do research on solar collectors and even CSP.
DISCLOSURE: None
*
We are always interested in reviewing books and reports in the areas of
alternative energy, cleantech or other environmental industries,
especially where they add value to the investment decision-making
process. If your organization would like a new book or report reviewed,
please contact us.