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April 02, 2008

Current Picks: Busses and Energy Efficiency

Over the weekend, EnergyTechStocks published two articles based on an interview with me.

The first was about my conviction that Peak Oil induced rising gas prices is going to lead to a rush into mass transit building by cities, or investing in mode-shifting last September.  I've since written about opportunities in rail transit stocks, (P.TO, TRN, PRPX, and WAB), and more recently Hedging your peak oil risk with your lifestyle.  However, I have been frustrated until now that the only pure play bus stock I've been able to find is Firstgroup PLC (FGP.L, FGROF.PK), the British based owner of Greyhound and owner or operator of many other UK and North American transit services (both bus and rail.)  Back in September, Firstgroup seemed very expensive after a prolonged run-up, but it is now looking more reasonably valued.

Two weeks ago, however, I found a pure-play North American Bus stock, which I will be writing about this weekend.  I'm not ready to reveal the name, because I still have an account which has not yet bought the stock.  This is the company I was not ready to reveal in the EnergyTechStocks interview.

The second part of the interview referred to my conviction that lean economic times will benefit Energy Efficiency over other forms of clean energy.  I highlighted two of the stocks from the 10 Solid Clean Energy Companies to Buy in a Downturn series.

DISCLOSURE: Tom Konrad and/or his clients have long positions in TRN, PRPX, WAB.

DISCLAIMER: The information and trades provided here are for informational purposes only and are not a solicitation to buy or sell any of these securities. Investing involves substantial risk and you should evaluate your own risk levels before you make any investment. Past results are not an indication of future performance. Please take the time to read the full disclaimer here.

January 07, 2008

Commodities Specialists Ask About Alternative Energy

Commodities investing site HardAssetsInvestor has published an interview with me from the start of December.  We covered a broad swathe of the clean (and not so clean) energy.  

If you're wondering why my top stock pick from the article was ABB, and not one from my recent 10 Speculations series, it's because all of those are too risky to be my top picks.  I like risk, but not with the largest part of my portfolio... stocks like ABB that let me sleep at night.

Major topics we touched on:

  • Ethanol (both corn and cellulosic)
  • Cost comparisons in electricity generation technologies, and in liquid fuels.
  • Electric Demand Side Management.
  • Electric Transmission
  • Plug-In Hybrid vehicles
  • The expected effects of CO2 pricing
  • "Clean Coal" and Nuclear power.

You can read the full interview here.

DISCLOSURE: Tom Konrad and/or his clients have long positions in ABB.

DISCLAIMER: The information and trades provided here and in the interview are for informational purposes only and are not a solicitation to buy or sell any of these securities. Investing involves substantial risk and you should evaluate your own risk levels before you make any investment. Past results are not an indication of future performance. Please take the time to read the full disclaimer here.

November 06, 2007

Alt Energy Stocks Analyst Tom Konrad On PBS's WealthTrack

Alt Energy Stocks Analyst Tom Konrad will join a televised roundtable discussion with EnergyTechStocks' Managing Editor Bill Paul and Ardour Global Indexes' Joseph LaCorte this Friday. The discussion will center around the topic of investing in alternative energy. The program, entitled WealthTrack with Consuelo Mack, will air on PBS between November 9th and 12th, after which it will be available for online viewing here.  You can find a listing of stations carrying the show with airtimes at the end of this article.

Bill Paul may be familiar to our readers because of the series of articles he wrote following an interview with Tom in August. Topics ranged from utility scale batteries (currently getting a great deal of attention because of AES recent purchases), batteries for vehicles, Tom's ambivalence about biofuels and his enthusiasm for transmission, top picks in the energy efficiency space, why forestry companies are a good way to play cellulosic ethanol (because wood will be the feedstock of choice for cellulosic plants such as Range Fuels' in Georgia), and why Alcoa is green.

Joseph LaCorte, while perhaps less well known to our readers, is also a significant player in alternative energy investing sector. The Global Alternative Energy ETF (NYSE: GEX) is based on the index Mr. LaCorte manages, and is currently Tom's favorite Alternative energy ETF, at least for people not yet ready to manage an individual stock portfolio.

All and all, this promises to be a very insightful discussion and is a must-see for serious alternative energy investors.

Continue reading "Alt Energy Stocks Analyst Tom Konrad On PBS's WealthTrack" »

August 28, 2007

They'll Put the Cellulose in Cellulosic Ethanol

One of the keys to staying ahead of the game in money management is lateral thinking.  I start with the trend, and then try to think of industries or companies that might benefit, but are not on everyone else's radar.  With Peak Oil-driven demand for biofuels, regular readers know that I consider the people who produce the feedstock (farmers, and industries whose waste can fairly easily be converted into biofuel) to be the most certain winners. 

One direction this chain of logic has taken me is to forestry companies.  I'm far from a forestry analyst, so I decided to take small stakes in a few of the more sustainable forestry companies.  When it comes to wood products, the gold (or is it green?) standard for sustainable certification is the Forest Stewardship Council's.  Do not be fooled by watered down industry sponsored pretenders like the Sustainable Forestry Initiative.  Last year, to find sustainable companies, I went to the FSC's list of certified forests, and looked for large numbers that were owned by public companies.

The companies I came up with: Domtar (NYSE:UFS), Tembec (TMBAF.PK), Cascades, Inc. (CADNF.PK), and Potlach (NYSE: PCH).  I later added Catalyst Paper (CTLUF.PK) to my list when reading a news story that, as an aside, mentioned them as a sustainable leader in the Canadian wood and paper industry.  

Scientific?   Not at all.  I consider my investments in sustainable forestry as a diversification with an interesting alternative energy long term upside.  Needless to say, my investments in each company are small.  The ones that didn't make it into the Energy Tech Stocks Interview were ones that had slipped my mind.  I did not end up purchasing them due to the price movements at the time (i.e. my other limit orders executed first.)

I'd love to see comments from readers who know more about sustainable forestry than I do... I'm sure that there are some stand-out forest stewards that I missed when I put together this little diversification.  I personally expect the subprime mess to lead to a prolonged housing slump, at which time even further depressed forestry companies may be excellent bargains... if they are not bankrupt.

DISCLOSURE: Tom Konrad  and/or his clients have positions in the following companies mentioned here: UFS, PCH, CTLUF.

DISCLAIMER: The information and trades provided here are for informational purposes only and are not a solicitation to buy or sell any of these securities. Investing involves substantial risk and you should evaluate your own risk levels before you make any investment. Past results are not an indication of future performance. Please take the time to read the full disclaimer here.

 

ETS Interview: LEDs and Energy Efficiency

Today, Energy Tech Stocks has the fifth installment from our interview, outlining my LED stock picks.  He quotes me at the start saying that it's "going to be a gigantic market" about LEDs.  It is, but only when compared to the current size of the market... you can ramp up a lot from a very small base.  

LED bulbs are increasing in brightness and decreasing in price rapidly.  It's these quickly improving economics that make me bullish about LEDs.  

Unlike many energy efficiency technologies, LEDs are a product that a business can sell.   Much of energy efficiency involves a complete revamping  of our ways of doing things.  The truly gigantic market is the whole energy efficiency space, but it is much more difficult to invest in behavior change than it is to invest in product.  Nevertheless, there are ways, such as with performance contracting companies, more efficient transmission, or smart metering.   

Before we get carried away looking at the sheer size of the potential energy efficiency market (as measured by the cost of wasted energy that could be saved), we need to remind ourselves that just because a market inefficiency exists does not mean that anyone has yet invented a business model which can profitably exploit it.  The fact that energy efficiency is so much cheaper than new generation is, to me, a priori proof that the market is inefficient.

LEDs have a simple business model that is likely to capture a rapidly growing proportion of the lighting market... but lighting is only a small part of the energy we use (and waste), so I'm always looking for other practical business models that can help to make something we do more energy efficient, and capture enough of that value to make the business self sustaining and, we hope, a good investment.

DISCLAIMER: The information and trades provided here are for informational purposes only and are not a solicitation to buy or sell any of these securities. Investing involves substantial risk and you should evaluate your own risk levels before you make any investment. Past results are not an indication of future performance. Please take the time to read the full disclaimer here.

August 23, 2007

Hither and Yon: Transmission and Biofuels

In the most recent two installments of Energy Tech Stocks' interview with me cover my views on transmission stocks, and biofuel stocks.  Readers of AltEnergyStocks know that I am a big fan of electricity transmission, a theme I keep coming back to.  You also know that I have a very ambivalent relationship with both ethanol and biodiesel.  So I liked Bill's transmission article, but I just wasn't able to convey to him the subtleties of how I feel about biofuels.  But he got one thing right: the owners of biofuel feedstock are likely going to be the biggest winners.

Relevant articles on Biofuels

Competition in Ethanol

An Insider's View of the Ethanol Industry

Let Them Eat Grass

Blue Sun Biodiesel

Biodiesel's Competition

My Biodiesel Jeep

The Answer is Trading in the Wind

While you're on the Energy Tech Stocks site, read a little about trading of wind power futures (here and here.nbsp; While I personally have no interest in speculating in wind futures, I predict this will be a great boon to wind farm owners and climate scientists everywhere.  I also predict hedge funds which will use strategies based on emerging inverse correlations between wind power futures and natural gas futures, probably sooner than anyone might guess. 

DISCLAIMER: The information and trades provided here are for informational purposes only and are not a solicitation to buy or sell any of these securities. Investing involves substantial risk and you should evaluate your own risk levels before you make any investment. Past results are not an indication of future performance. Please take the time to read the full disclaimer here.

August 21, 2007

ETS Interview: The Will the Real Transportation Fuel of the Future Step Forward

For macro reasons, I think that the next generation liquid fuels may be cellulosic ethanol and biodiesel or renewable diesel from algae.  But those fuels will increasingly be sharing the roads with the long term transportation fuel of the future: electricity from renewable sources, especially wind.  Wind will be important for electric transportation and electric transportation will be important for wind because, when you're already going to be charging batteries, you may as well do it when the electricity is cheap, which will be when the wind is blowing..  

Plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) neatly solve the main barrier to getting increasing amounts of wind on the grid: the  fact that it often blows in the middle of the night, when electricity demand is lowest (and when PHEVs would be charging), and wind solves one problem for the long term future of PHEVs: where do we get an abundant source of inexpensive electric generation for powering our vehicles?

What's the missing link?  Batteries that are light, have a long recharge life, and can sustain a long series of quick, deep discharge cycles without significant degradation.  And don't catch fire.  Combined with a better control system, and perhaps ultracapacitors.

In one sense, current battery shortcomings don't matter: rising oil prices will make even today's batteries practical as an alternative to $10 gasoline... we just don't know when that $10 gas price will hit us.  When it does, more and more battery types will be practical in PHEVs.  A battery pack ready for a PHEV is a moving target... but this is one moving target that gets closer every time the oil price increases.

In the second installment of my Energy Tech Stocks interview with Bill Paul, he talks about my battery technology "picks" which aren't so much as a representative cross section of the sector.  I'm currently working on differentiate the good with the bad; I just set up a phone conference with a couple of battery industry insiders so I can get their perspectives on which battery companies have well run research operations, as well as which companies will be able to deliver the volume of batteries we're going to need as we shift our transportation system away from a reliance on liquid fuels and towards a greater reliance on electricity.

Watch this space for a more in-depth look into the advanced battery industry in a few weeks.

One other thing in Bill's article: I don't think GM "gets it" when it comes to peak oil.  That's because of their continued insistence that E85 is a valid way to get from here to energy independence.  Earth to GM: there isn't enough feedstock to make that much ethanol. Energy efficiency must come first.  Nice talk about the Volt, but I won't believe it until you stop blathering about ethanol.

DISCLAIMER: The information and trades provided here are for informational purposes only and are not a solicitation to buy or sell any of these securities. Investing involves substantial risk and you should evaluate your own risk levels before you make any investment. Past results are not an indication of future performance. Please take the time to read the full disclaimer here.

 

August 20, 2007

Energy Tech Stocks Interview- Utility Scale Batteries

Two weeks ago I did a phone interview with Bill Paul of Energy Tech Stocks.  Bill's a long time WSJ reporter who got out in time before Rupert Murdoch swooped in, as well as a long time environmental journalist.  As such he interviews those of us whose job it is to have views about what's going on in Cleantech and presents those opinions in a readable and engaging way.  He also has this addictive trick of breaking up interviews into several parts and leaving you with a cliffhanger. 

Bill's first installment showed up in my feed reader last night.  He had some nice things to say about me and AltEnergyStocks, followed by a short recap of some ideas for investing in utility scale batteries which I go into in more detail here.

He got a few choice quotes out of me showing just how rabid I am about global warming and peak oil.  “We’re out of time for dealing with the effects of climate change," for instance. Traditional reporters still have a few tricks we bloggers with opinions could stand to learn, such as getting interviewees to open up.

July 27, 2007

Interview with Dr. Mike Gallagher, President & COO of Westport Innovations

One of the companies I have followed for some time is Westport Innovations, Inc., (TSX:WPT or WPIVF.PK) out of Vancouver. The technology and product suite allows large diesel trucks to run standard diesels on a 95% natural gas mix, enabling fuel switching as well as significantly improved NOx and PM, as well as CO2 emissions. The company's rapid expansions date from a late 1990s joint venture with Cummins (NYSE:CMI), and Westport has led this market sector since then.

I had the opportunity at the recent Greenvest 2007 Conference I chaired in San Francisco to hear the talk of my friend Dr. Mike Gallagher, President & COO of Westport, and asked him to share a few thoughts for Cleantech Blog based on his conference presentation.

A few quick quotes from their website on the technology (you'll see why I like it so much):

“Westport™ HPDI (High Pressure Direct Injection) natural gas engines on the road are producing approximately 50% less nitrogen oxides (NOx), 80% less particulate matter (PM), and 20-25% less carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions than equivalent diesel engines.” - These are the regular diesels running on 95% natural gas.

Westport has also been developing a Compressed Natural Gas Direct Ignition technology that basically similarly enables a straight natural gas engine to run direct injection like a diesel. The benefits include:

"- near-zero emissions of particulate matter
- 20% less greenhouse gas emissions (mainly carbon dioxide) than equivalent diesel engines
- 25% increased fuel efficiency over current spark-ignited natural gas engines"

Mike, before we go into your thoughts on Westport, let me lay out some of your background in energy engineering. Mike was previously Senior Vice-President, Americas, for Fluor Corp, and held executive officer positions with the Bechtel Group in San Francisco and London-based Kvaerner Group. He also has PhD from Stanford in Mechanical-Nuclear Engineering. So Mike, thanks for the time today.

Mike, I know Westport makes products to run diesel engines on natural gas – how exactly does this work?

Westport’s LNG System for Heavy-Duty trucks uses a small amount of diesel pilot fuel for robust ignition and then allows the truck engine – we’ve based our technology on the Cummins ISX diesel engine platform – to operate using approximately 95% natural gas for high duty cycle applications. The combustion approach uses a high pressure direction injection of natural gas into the diesel combustion chamber.

Can you tell us about the greenhouse gas impact of your products? That’s such a hot topic these days.

Emissions regulations are the norm now, particularly in California where we are actively pursuing opportunities for the use of our heavy-duty product. The Westport LNG system truck produces 15-20% less greenhouse gas emissions, compared to an equivalent diesel engine.

Our joint venture company, Cummins Westport Inc., offers mid-range products for medium-duty truck and bus applications. CWI’s advanced ISL G engine produces 7-13% less greenhouse gas than the equivalent diesel.

As you just alluded to, and for those who haven’t followed the company, Westport has a major joint venture with engine company Cummins. How does this arrangement work and what’s in it for Westport?

Cummins Westport Inc., or CWI as we call it, is a 50:50 joint venture between Westport and Cummins Inc. The JV company is headquartered right here in Vancouver with us, it has a dedicated management team and a dedicated Board of directors.

Profits (and losses) are shared equally by the two parent companies. CWI Cummins Westport Inc., a joint venture of Cummins Inc. (NYSE:CMI) and Westport Innovations Inc. (TSX:WPT), manufactures and sells the world's widest range of low-emissions alternative fuel engines for commercial transportation applications such as trucks and buses. Cummins is a global power leader in engines, electrical power generation systems and related technologies. Westport Innovations is the leading developer of technologies that allow engines to operate on clean-burning fuels such as natural gas, hydrogen, and hydrogen-enriched natural gas (HCNG).

Revenues grew approximately 40% from 2006 to 2007, to $60 million Canadian, what were the major drivers – and is that growth expected to continue? Where should investors expect the growth from?

The 39% increase in annual revenues was driven by increased CWI engine shipments (up 50%) and the delivery of our first Westport LNG systems for heavy-duty trucks. Product sales growth which we measure in Canadian dollars was actually offset by a 5% decrease in the US dollar exchange rate. In US dollar terms, revenue growth was 44%. Growth for the next couple of years is expected both from CWI global sales growth around the launch of its new ISL G, and from sales of Westport’s new LNG systems for heavy duty trucks.

And the company turned a profit for, I believe, the first quarter ever in this last quarter. Does this mean Westport has turned the corner? The company has a fairly large retained deficit – and I know investors have been looking for profits to begin erasing it.

We are pleased about this last quarter’s results for sure. We have a solid history with CWI and a new HD product now and the markets are responding. The profitability for this recent quarter was driven by a number of fortuitous events that occurred during the quarter on a one time basis. So we will continue to push for improved profitability on a recurring basis.

Perseus, one of your major shareholders (who has had two seats on the board) recently sold a large amount ($50 million worth) of shares. What was the story there? Didn’t Perseus loan money to the company just last year? Should existing or prospective investors be worried?

No, certainly no cause for worry, quite the reverse actually. In fact, the sale erased planned interest payments by Westport to Perseus which is a positive for us, and Perseus elected to capitalize on a a very attractive financial opportunity available to them based on our significant share price increase in recent months.

The stock price has tripled in the last year – what were the drivers and are you worried the run up was too steep?

It’s always hard to know exactly what is going on out there in the marketplace, but we think the market has responded primarily to two things: our CWI business is demonstrating strong and growing profitability, and our heavy duty LNG truck business has launched with some early sales and big opportunities at the Port of LA and others.

We think we are now being valued more broadly for our expertise, we are meeting expectations, and the regulatory system is catching up with our technologies, opening the door for more sales. CWI has an engine offering available now that is certified to 2010 emissions standards – that’s 3 years ahead of schedule! And Westport is positioned to provide LNG systems in trucks in California now, where they have approved a five year Clean Air Action Plan at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach to replace up to 5,300 older diesel trucks with LNG trucks in five years
.

Do you have any plans to list on Nasdaq in the future to make it easier for US investors to buy in?


We are always looking at listing alternatives and have expanded our communications with US institutions and investors. But we don’t have any immediate plans to do a US listing.


You personally came to Westport from big corporate engineering - what had attracted you to the company?

That’s true, I had spent 25 years and grew into senior executive positions with the pre-eminent engineering and project management companies in the world- well known names like the Bechtel Group and the Fluor Corporation. Within those companies though I had dedicated a fair piece of my career to development of alternative energy technologies- particularly alternatives to oil- and to environmental cleanup technologies. And to the entrepreneurial creation and growth of new businesses. And of course I had my Stanford and MIT engineering and technology roots to draw from. So when the Westport opportunity came along almost five years ago, I felt it was a great way to take everything I had learned and apply it to a fast-growing technology company. A place where I could work with some of the brightest young talent around to transform Westport from an R&D company to a full commercial company, making a serious contribution to solving some of the world’s oil, energy, and environmental challenges.

If you had to give an investor three reasons to like Westport – what would you pick?

Real and growing sales, short term commercialization opportunities, and a technology right in the wheelhouse of current world needs around oil, energy, environment, and climate change.


For more information, you can visit the Westport website.

Neal Dikeman is a founding partner at Jane Capital Partners LLC, a boutique merchant bank advising strategic investors and startups in cleantech. He is founding contributor of Cleantech Blog, a Contributing Author for Inside Greentech, and a Contributing Editor to Alt Energy Stocks.

July 10, 2007

Interview with Tom Konrad on the CleanTech Show

An interview with our analyst, Tom Konrad, with Nick Bruse of The Cleantech Show is now available. In it, they discuss various strategies and the outlook for the Cleantech investment space, as well as some of Tom's ideas on industry regulation.

You can download or listen to a podcast of the interview here.

May 03, 2007

Cleantech Venture Capital - Still Rising

As part of our ongoing series on stories on investment in the cleantech sector, we had a chance to discuss the sector with one of the venture capitalists at Emerald Technology Ventures.

Scott MacDonald is an Investment Director with Emerald Technology Ventures, a global leader in cleantech venture capital. Founded in 2000 under the name SAM Private Equity, Emerald is a pioneer in this rapidly emerging sector and is focused on innovative technologies in energy, materials and water. With offices in Zurich, Switzerland and Montreal, Canada, Emerald manages three venture capital funds and two venture capital portfolio mandates totaling over US$380 million. Scott currently serves as Chairman of RuggedCom and as a Director of Solicore and SoftSwitching Technologies. Prior to joining SAM, Scott held the position of Managing Director at OPG Ventures Inc., the venture capital subsidiary of Ontario Power Generation. Previous to OPG Ventures, Scott worked for ACF Equity, an early-stage venture capital company focused on investing in information technology companies. Scott graduated with a Bachelors degree from McMaster University and an MBA from Dalhousie University. He is a member of the North American Advisory Committee of the CleanTech Venture Network.

I know a bit about the history of SAM and Emerald Technology Ventures, and as one of the oldest cross-border investment groups in the cleantech area, I am very curious to get the Emerald Technology take on a number of issues. So we put to Scott a few thoughts and questions to get their take:

Emerald sponsored the San Francisco GreenVest 2007 conference I am chairing in June, and you are speaking there – can you share a few of your insights on the future of the cleantech area as an investment asset class?

I think we are in the early days but there is certainly an element of notoriety that the sector has attracted over the past 12 months with scientists, politicians and venerable VCs claiming action is required now to save the planet from global warming. A reputable and experienced LP in the venture asset class told me just last week that every generalist fund they speak with mentions an initiative in cleantech. I think the great generalist funds will invest in the sector (as you know a few already are) and they will likely be successful. The specialist funds like Emerald will continue to map out and invest in innovating technologies because of our technical expertise and experience. Based on a number of successes exits to date in our first funds (Evergreen, Schmack Biogas, Pemeas), the specialization strategy seems to be working well. A really exciting development is that we are starting to see repeat entrepreneurs. Cleantech entrepreneurs that have successfully exited and are looking to try it again – and we couldn’t be happier. This was a key factor in the growth of the IT sector in the late 80s and 90s.

And can you fill me in a bit on the ins and outs of the recent fund history – the mandates with CDP and Ontario Power, your fund raise last year, and the subsequent MBO to form Emerald?

In 2000, SAM Group (Sustainable Asset Management), a leading asset management company specializing in sustainability investments and headquartered in Zurich, launched SAM Private Equity as its venture capital arm. That same year SAM Private Equity closed the SAM Sustainability Private Equity Fund and the SAM Private Equity Energy Fund with a combined EUR 90 million in commitments from leading institutions and strategic corporations. Both of these first funds are fully invested. In 2004, SAM Private Equity was awarded the portfolio management mandate from la Caisse de Dépot et Placement du Québec (CDP), a large Canadian-based pension fund, to manage its direct energy technology venture capital portfolio. Following the awarding of this mandate, SAM Private Equity increased its North American presence with two former members of the CDP team and established a North American office in Montreal, Quebec. In 2005, SAM Private Equity was awarded its second portfolio management mandate from Ontario Power Generation, a large Canadian electric utility, to manage its direct energy technology venture capital portfolio. To further strengthen its North American investment focus, two members of the former venture capital arm of Ontario Power also joined the team.

In March we announced the final close of our latest cleantech focused venture fund with commitments of EUR 135 million (US$180 million). We are going through a name change but the fund will be renamed Emerald Technology Ventures Fund II. Strong investor demand helped us exceed our original target for the new fund of EUR 100 million. Investors in the new fund are leading investment companies, financial institutions and multinational corporations from around the globe including: GIMV - Belgium, Rabobank - Netherlands, Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec - Canada, Axpo Holding - Switzerland, Springbridge Limited (Advised by Consensus Business Group – UK), Credit Suisse - Switzerland, Deere & Company - USA, DSM Venturing - Netherlands, The Dow Chemical Company - USA, KPC Energy Ventures, Inc. - Kuwait, Piper Jaffray Private Capital - USA, Suncor Energy Inc. - Canada, Unilever Corporate Ventures and Volvo Technology Transfer AB - Sweden.

I have to ask, the name change – Sustainable Asset Management was an old brand in the cleantech investment sector, why the name change to Emerald?

Following the buy-out we are a private independent VC manager now and as such can no longer use the SAM brand. The SAM brand is powerful but it also was the source of some market confusion for our venture capital division. It’s clear now that Emerald is an agile and independent global VC manger with in-house expertise in the cleantech sector focused on investing exclusively in the cleantech sector and we have a new fund to do deals.

How many deals have you done from the new fund, how much capital have you employed, and what are you expecting to do over the next 12- 24 months?

We have made three investments out of the new fund and are closing on two more which should be announced within the month. We have only announced two of the investments to date – Vaperma and Identec (details of each is on our web site) www.emerald-ventures.com I would expect we will invest in about 6 portfolio companies in total this year. We like to invest between US$2 -5 million in the first round depending on the opportunity and the stage. Technology, market and management are what’s important to us – we will consider all stages. Well…if it’s just a conceptual idea on a bar napkin we need to know the entrepreneur has made himself and others very wealthy in the past (preferably us – back to the serial entrepreneur comment).

What’s your passion these days? What technologies are you focused on?

I think there is an incredible opportunity for new technologies to help upgrade the antiquated electricity grids in Europe and North America and to leap frog into the incredible build-out that is going on in countries like India and China. China last year built an average of five 300 megawatt electricity plants a week and energy consumption is expected to continue rising fast as China aims to quadruple the size of its economy by 2020. This means a lot of new grid infrastructure technology will be deployed. We have a number of portfolio companies in the “smart Grid? space and will continue to seek out investments in this space.

You’ve had a couple of recent exits in fuel cells – what fund were they from, and has that changed your appetite for similar technology areas in the future?

We have had recent exits in this area: Pemeas which we sold to BASF and Cellex which we sold to Plug. We still have an number of other FC investments in our portfolio that we are bullish on – Angstrom Power and PolyFuel. I would say we have learned a lot about the general FC market and understand many of the technology challenges and market adoption risks much better. We are still interested in the FC space – I would just say we are a more sophisticated FC investor now.

What does Emerald see as the main differences between investing in cleantech in Europe versus the US?

The topic of an article in itself but quickly: Deal structure, Corporate governance model, Company history (many family business in Europe), labour laws, language, proximity and access to stock exchanges which are more accommodating to VC backed companies (Frankfurt Prime Standard, AIM), valuations (typically more favourable than the US – comparable to Canada where we are also very active). The short answer is lots but both regions provide great opportunity to generate investor returns. Again or investment thesis is based on the fact that unlike IT, cleantech is a global business and as such, investment opportunities are not limited to Silicon Valley or any other specific geography. At Emerald Technology Ventures we have taken a distinctive approach to addressing the challenges associated with technology specialization and geographic diversity. Our approach includes having technically competent people in-house and locating our Partners and Technology Specialists in two of the most important Cleantech markets in the world: North America and Europe.

We have done a lot of writing at Cleantech Blog on topics including ethanol, solar – so I’d like to get your 1 sentence rapid fire take on a couple of always topical cleantech investment debates:

Thin film vs. Conventional PV
Thin film if you have deep pockets and patience

Solar concentrators vs. Flat Panel
No comment, yet.

Cellulosic vs. Corn Ethanol
Science project vs. commodity. I’m a VC…science project always wins.

Cleantech vs. Greentech
Make great products, build great businesses and provide great returns to investors (and hopefully help out our world along the way) and no one will care what you call it.

Thanks Scott. Especially with those last comments, you've provided some good food for thought. The venture capital sector is built around high risk, high reward, and you guys are certainly in the mix. We continue to keep our fingers crossed that cleantech sector can deliver on the rewards side. You can find more on Emerald at www.emerald-ventures.com. And don't forget to visit GreenVest on June 25 in San Francisco.

Neal Dikeman is a founding partner at Jane Capital Partners LLC, a boutique merchant bank advising strategic investors and startups in cleantech. He is founding contributor of Cleantech Blog, a Contributing Author for Inside Greentech, and a Contributing Editor to Alt Energy Stocks.

March 24, 2007

Fuel Tech - Driving Profits by Cleaning up Coal

Fuel Tech (Nasdaq: FTEK) is one of the fast growing public greentech / cleantech companies focused on cleaning up dirty coal.

I have known John Norris, the CEO of Fuel Tech, and his family for years, and have had the pleasure of following his career for some time. He's one of the many former nuclear engineers that grew up in the electric utility industry. He has held utility executive positions including CEO of Duke Engineering & Services, SVP and CEO of Duke Energy Global Asset Development, and Senior Vice President, Operations and Technical Services, at American Electric Power (NYSE: AEP).

He took the reins at Fuel Tech early last (the stock promptly started climbing), and when I ran into him at a recent conference, filled me in on the goings on at this cleantech company that I not previously followed. I had a chance to chat with John for the record on Cleantech Blog about Fuel Tech in specific, and his thoughts on emissions technologies, carbon and greenhouse gases, and cleaning up electric utilities. I hope you enjoy.


You are relatively new to Fuel Tech, what compelled you to join the company?

I started with Fuel Tech as an Executive Consultant in April of 2005 to try to open doors with utility execs. When the Board approached me late that year about becoming the CEO, I thought about what I had seen over that last 8 months and really liked the prospects for growth. I have had the opportunity in the past to build high growth, highly profitable enterprises including one the most fun periods in my life in leading Duke Engineering & Services. This reminded me a lot of that experience, although I think Fuel Tech has even better prospects than DE&S had when I first got there.


What are the key drivers an investor should understand for the recent and continuing growth of the business?

There are several. On the Air Pollution Control (capital projects) side, investors should watch for market penetration of Ultra systems in the China/Pacific Rim market as well as a broader acceptance our all our NOx reduction technologies in the US market. They will be able to track this by watching for our announcements regarding contract wins. On the Fuel Chem (specialty chemical) side, the key driver is market acceptance by utility coal units. Again they can track this through our announcements.


And in short - what did cause the recent revenue growth?

I tend to credit the good looks of the CEO, but others do not necessarily support that conclusion. [Note to readers: John's picture is on their website, so you can judge his conclusions for yourself!] --- I think the real reason is that we have better defined our products and services and have recognized a much broader market for those services. We have a more focused R&D effort to bring solutions to client problems quickly. And it doesn’t hurt that customers are looking more earnestly for ways to reduce pollution and increase efficiency. All of these have come together for us in sort of a “perfect storm?. Still, we have to deliver results for our customers and for our investors.


Do you view Fuel Tech as part of the emerging cleantech investment theme?

Very much so, but also maybe with an important difference. Too often the greentech sector has, in my opinion, over-promised and under-delivered for clients and for investors. We aim to be a different breed in those regards.


If I understand correctly, Fuel Tech has long been a leader in post combustion pollutant reduction systems, and pre-combustion technologies are a newer business for you. Is this correct? What does the future hold? Where is the industry going?

Fuel Tech has long been a leader in post-combustion NOx control as you mention. Our Fuel Chem product line is really a combustion/post-combustion technology that helps reduce slag problems, dramatically reduce SO3 emissions (both in the boiler and across an SCR), and improve plant efficiency thus reducing CO2 emissions in the process. These latter two items have only recently (in the last few years) become important to customers. I think in the future clients will much more strongly focus on all these and other environmental and operational issues, both domestically and internationally.


Can you give us some color on the overall direction and key issues in the regulatory environment for these pollutants?

For all air pollutants the direction is towards dramatic reduction. You can sense that the whole world is looking to clean up the environment and they are not so much focused on CO2 but rather all the more serious pollutants (SOx, NOx and Hg especially).


You reported all time high international sales for 2006. How much of the business do you expect to be from overseas in the next 2 to 3 years? What has happened on that front? Has the growth been because it is a newer area of focus for the company, or because the overseas markets are growing? And how does China play into the company plan?

Our dramatic international revenue growth in 2006 really came from our projects in China. I expect China and the Pacific Rim to become a much larger part of our business going forward. China consumes more coal today than we do in the US and within a decade they will be using about 3 times the coal we use. The Chinese have now recognized the pollution issues of smog and acid-rain (from NOx and SOx emissions) and are working hard to do something about that. The upcoming Olympic games has heightened the sense of urgency to clean up the air and water. We have worked hard for a number of years to establish our credibility there and to demonstrate our technologies. In 2005 we won two major contracts to demonstrate our NOxOut SNCR and eventually our NOXOUT Cascade technologies and then earlier this year we won two major contracts to install our NOxOUT ULTRA urea to ammonia system on new plants who have the catalyst NOx control technology installed (SCR). Those wins position us well to really make this a major and growing part of our business going forward.


What about C02? In a Kyoto world, is Fuel Tech looking at C02 reduction, sequestration, or capture technologies? If so, what can you share about that?

Our Fuel Chem targeted injections can typically reduce CO2 emissions by 1 to 1.5% for coal utility plants, while dramatically reducing slag and SO3 operational issues and emissions. That may not sound like much but it very hard to make any significant CO2 reductions in plants and our reductions can be achieved while actually REDUCING plant costs. A 1.5% CO2 reduction for a 500 MW plant would be a reduction of about 8 tons/hr or about 65,000 tons per year of CO2 emissions. That is not insignificant and there is much interest in this in China and India especially where we can sell the emission reduction credits on the European Kyoto market (if done thru our Italian subsidiary).


A large portion of your business has been focused on cleaning up NOx or other pollutants at coal fired power plants. With low-carbon power likely to be a larger and larger portion of the global generation mix, what does this mean for the coal-fired pollution control sector?

While I strongly support the push for more renewable energy sources and a renewed push for nuclear power (I am a nuclear engineer as you know), the reality is that for our lifetimes and beyond fossil fuels will supply most of our energy needs. I think our company has a long and exciting future in making those energy sources cleaner and more efficient and thus making this planet a better place.


You announced not to long ago a series of company firsts, among others:
- Installation of a NOx Out Cascade System on a Coal fired boiler
- Commercial SNCR/RRI project
- SNCR lignite fired application
What does this actually mean for company?

We are looking with great haste and much effort for ways we can provide a much broader array of solutions for clients in pollution control, efficiency gains, and operations and maintenance cost reductions. We have a dedicated R&D team of our best and brightest folks focused on this effort and their work has paid off. One technology that you did not mention is our Targeted Corrosion Inhibition Program was introduced in 2006 and which is aimed at helping municipal solid waste plants dramatically reduce the corrosion rates in their boilers. Our patent in this area was but one of 7 patents applied for or granted here in the US and another 12 internationally. We are on the leading edge of technologies in these areas and we intend to stay on that leading edge.


Revenues are obviously up, and you’ve said you expect revenues to increase 20-27% in 2007, with growth from both technology segments. What about 2008, 2009 and beyond, what markets and which products do you expect to deliver the longer term growth?

We do intend to grow but have provided no guidance beyond 2007.


In 2006 compared to 2005, the gross margins were down in the NOx Reduction business, but up in the Fuel Treatment business. Net income for the 4th quarter was down year over year, even though 2006 vs 2005 was up significantly. Can you talk a little about this, as well as tell us what the long term margin objectives are for the company?

First, our revenue for 2006 was up 42% over 2005 and our pre-tax income in 2006 was up 64% vs 2005. (These results were above our guidance.) The net income (after tax) blip you mentioned is that in 2005 we recorded $4.3 million in non-cash tax benefits related to the anticipated utilization of new operating loss and tax credit carryforwards. So we believe our performance in 2006 was considerably better than 2005 and has positioned us to do even better in 2007.


You keep a healthy amount of cash and no debt on your balance sheet. What is your view on the company’s capital structure?

I love our capital structure---lots of cash, no debt, unsecured borrowing ability and a business model that is delivering rapid growth in revenues, profits and cash.


And I know you’ve had to discuss this a lot lately, but the stock price has doubled in the last year, and P/E and valuation metrics are looking rich. What is your view on how the capital markets should look at the stock and valuation?

Personally I think this is a great buying opportunity (and I just recently did so in my personal accounts). If you believe that we can and will execute our business plan and grow this company rapidly and profitably then today’s stock price is not over-valued at all. If you don’t believe that we can and will execute and achieve the results, then the stock price is already too high. It all depends on what you believe about the Fuel Tech team.


And if I was an investor interested in the company, what should I be looking for over the next 6 to 12 months?

You should be watching for contract announcements to see if we are winning in the market-place. The first quarter will be the hardest for us from a results point of view but the orders need to come over the next 6 months if we are going to deliver this year’s revenue and profit results. We are working hard to make that happen, but until the contracts are in hand it is just talk.


Neal Dikeman is a founding partner at Jane Capital Partners LLC, a boutique merchant bank advising strategic investors and startups in cleantech. He is founding contributor of Cleantech Blog and a Contributing Editor to Alt Energy Stocks.

January 05, 2007

The Biggest Unheard Boom of 2006 in Cleantech, Smart Metering, and Energy

Author Neal Dikeman is a founding partner at Jane Capital Partners LLC, a boutique merchant bank advising strategic investors and startups in cleantech. He is the founding contributor of Cleantech Blog, and a Contributing Editor to AltEnergyStocks.com.

In one of the less talked about cleantech mergers and acquisitions of 2006 (but one I think will have a deep impact on alternative energy and the smart metering and AMI market for years to come), First Data recently acquired Peace Software, an early provider of IT, billing, and CRM software to the deregulated utility sector, in a bid to get into the energy market. First Data [NYSE:FDC] is one of preeminent transaction processing firms in the world, and by acquiring Peace, has made its first foray into energy.

We have felt for some time that the financial products surrounding payments can be a very major driver for technologies like AMI, BPL and smart metering, and products like green power marketing, RECs, and carbon trading. Bottom line, if you can't measure and charge for it fast and cheap, you can't make and sell innovative electric retailing products. And conversely, if they can, they will.

I think the hurdles to overcome to get adoption of next generation IT and smart metering in the electric utility sector are hugely underestimated. But by the same token, I think the windfalls both the companies and consumers will see long term from those platforms once they are in, are also hugely underestimated.

I want to welcome Dean Cooper, Vice President at the newly formed energy & utilities division, First Data Utilities, and get his take on the merger, smart metering and information technology in the energy and power sector, and the future trends in AMI.

Dean, please give us a bit of background on yourself, and First Data Utilities.
My role at FDU is Vice President - Asia Pacific, which means I am responsible for business in the APAC region. The majority of this is Australia/New Zealand at this point. Prior to that I was with a venture management firm where we had a portfolio of renewable energy and biotech businesses with the most notable being a lithium battery and power device product that was destined for the NASDAQ IPO market in the go-go nineties. The prior venture was with McKinsey & Co, looking at establishing a global forest products trading system out of New Zealand.

Your firm, Peace Software, was recently acquired by First Data to form First Data Utilities. What was the rationale for the acquisition?
First Data Corporation has been involved in outsourcing for 35 years predominantly in the financial services space and credit card processing. They had built a business of some 33,000 people and an $US11bn revenue line (before spinning off Western Union late 2006) and were looking for verticals that mapped to their expertise of high volume, complex transaction processing and settlements with an annuity revenue stream. The energy sector was acknowledged as being ripe for the outsourcing model and expertise that FDC offers as utilities worldwide recognise the criticality of reducing their cost to serve in deregulating markets.

For an interesting take, check out the FDU backed research project on hottest customer switching markets for electricity. According to this, right now it’s Great Britain and Victoria, at 20% per year.

So if you had to choose the top 2 synergies that First Data was looking for in the acquisition, what would they be?
The key synergies were to blend the utilities domain expertise of Peace Software with the outsourcing and transaction processing capability of First Data. Whereas Peace contributes the software intellectual property, First Data would add the hosting and application management capability. This is a new business model for the energy markets and moves away from the traditional model of a systems integrator installing and hosting the intellectual property of the software provider, to a model where the one entity (FDU) owns both the IP and the implementation and hosting expertise. This new model is anchored on delivering a lower cost structure for utility companies.

Not many people know that New Zealand, where Peace originated, was the first major electricity market to deregulate. What impact has that had on Peace's history?
You’re right - the New Zealand market led the worldwide movement by government to deregulate energy markets to provide greater competition and lower costs for consumers. Our founder, Brian Peace, was a computer science lecturer at Auckland university at the time the New Zealand energy markets deregulated, which inspired his entrepreneurial crusade to build a software product specifically to service the deregulating energy markets worldwide. Resultingly the heritage of Peace was as a dereg software play for large and small utility (electricity, gas, water) companies initially in New Zealand and subsequently in Australia, Canada, USA, and Europe.

Adding to that, deregulation in some Australian states is now 10 years and running. How has the deregulation changed the investment behavior of the utilities?
Deregulation in Australia and beyond has altered utility behaviour from initially being dominated by engineers with a focus on the poles and wires (distribution) business to an entity focused more on the consumer, where reducing consumer costs and providing increased consumer choice is a key driver to energy retailer success in a competitive market.The larger utilities that had been operating in Australia since the mid 1800’s and then emerged as leaders in the deregulated market of Victoria in the late 1990s were and still are carrying a higher cost to serve than necessary, due to a legacy of disparate systems that come from M&A.

This provided a great incentive for “challenger brands? and new entrant retailers to enter the market in the last 3 years with a point of difference around low-cost, green energy, or tailored customer offers.

How have these entrants fared, and what role (if any) has cleantech information technology played in their bids for market share?
New entrant brands have appealed to many consumers by the nature of their fresh branding, tailored product offerings, and lower cost structure. In comparison it is more difficult for incumbent utilities to offer a new approach through the inertia of their operations. Information technology plays a key role in a new entrant solution offering a lower operational cost to customers. This begins from the time a customer is acquired through to its energy consumption, billing, and customer management activities. Traditional energy companies would have to integrate this information across a number of disparate systems, yet new entrant retailers are able to work with one technology company to provide a seamlessly integrated solution to manage their business. This has had a dramatic effect on costs and therefore appeal to consumers.

I'd love to get the FDU take on the future of demand response programs (in both deregulated and regulated markets). What is the state of the art now, both in the programs and the technologies powering them? How is this tying in with the rise of smart metering?
Demand response is proving to be a very trendy area globally in energy, with Australia being a leading market worldwide on this topic with legislation mandated in Victoria to implement a smart metering program as one means of managing demand response. There are many alternatives to demand response including price incentivisation through pricing monitors installed in households, peaking generation plants, time-based pricing mechanisms such as a smart metering program (such as the telco industry where we pay varying usage rates depending on the time of day – peak/off peak), and suchlike.

One of the major reasons for demand response is the growing age of electrification that we live in where households consume a lot more power due to home appliances, that the network assets were originally built to accommodate. It is very expensive to replace ageing network assets or build generation plants, (along with the debate over environmentally friendly generation assets) meaning a demand response program may be a better means to the consumption/generation imbalance by focusing more on the consumption part of this equation.

Can you give us some ideas of the technology changes that will need to happen? What's going to get commoditized, and where are the key technology areas to watch?
The areas of commodisation are likely to be meter hardware, remote communication, data acquisition, and data management. Because we will be looking at an order of magnitude increase in data volume from smart metering programs you get a sense for the size of the technology challenge. In a situation today where we may have 3 million consumers who have their energy consumption measured on a bi-monthly or quarterly basis. With a smart metering program we would move to 30 minute measurements which would be approximately a 4,000 fold increase in data volumes.

Already players that are grabbing a foothold in this space include Bayard Capital, run by Cameron O’Reilly for meter hardware along with GE, the comms companies, and all IT vendors for the data component, which is where FDU also fits in.

Are we going to see the rise of major IT giants in the smart metering sector, like we did in supply chain IT in other areas?
Good point, we could very well see this happen as the smart metering sector emerges and grows worldwide - smart metering measures consumption on a more granular level (30 minute intervals vs monthly intervals). We are still in the early stages of market trials and legislation worldwide yet already a number of sizeable markets are embarking on smart metering programs such as Australia, New Zealand, Canada, parts of the US, Italy, and Scandinavia. As standards are established for communication, data acquisition, and reporting we will see solutions to these markets develop. As is typical of emerging markets, suppliers are cautious of over-investing until regulators confirm market standards.

All major energy sector IT giants are poised to invest in the smart metering sector and you will see the leaders emerge once standards are confirmed in the leading markets of Australia, New Zealand, and Canada.

Have any IT players started this move? I’ve noticed IBM’s name on some press releases in North America.
Many players are establishing “thought leadership? positions in smart metering. IBM certainly have a large pool of resources dedicated to this space so expect them to feature in most smart metering roll outs.The majority of IT players are also positioning themselves but refraining from significant investments until market standards are set.

Who are some of the market leaders in this game, and where do FDU's products fit in?
In the meter hardware hardware frame Bayard Capital have amalgamated a strong set of assets and are the leader at the front end of the value chain. There is no clear leader in the remaining part of the value chain but FDU believes our business model and company heritage for large scale transaction processing globally puts us in good stead to make a compelling over to the market place.

FDU would therefore be able to continue its meter-to-cash outsourcing business model to include both basic and smart metering worldwide – with the scalability and complexity challenge involved there are not many competitors that would be able to make a similar claim.

“Meter-to-cash? – I like that phrase, can you elaborate on what that means?
Essentially it means the process whereby consumption data from the household meter is acquired, through to the billing and exception management process, and on to collections and credit checks. Effectively the engine room of an energy company’s customer management function.

Obviously, First Data is a financial services and transaction processing giant. Where (and when) do you see the convergence between financial services and areas in energy and electricity retailing like bill payment, smart metering, demand response? I would imagine that improving bill payment is one of the first areas. I know I can't even use my debit card to pay my personal utility bill, because my electricity provider does not accept debit cards from the two major banks in my region - so I use online bill pay. What's your take on what happens next?
Already the integration and convergence of these facets are underway and working in the market place today. Not being able to pay your electricity bill with a debit card is probably more a deficiency in the system capability of your utility than what the market (and FDU) can deliver on. End to end integration of energy services to consumers is part and parcel of a competitive deregulated marketplace, and part of the new behaviour of utilities in liberalised markets.

Modern systems and processes certainly can handle “mass customisation? of consumer needs and you will see significant positive change in utilities of the future as they become more consumer focused rather than solely on poles and wires.

If you had to pick the top 3 differences the consumer will see from all of this, what are they? And when do you see most of us as getting them?
Top 3? My best Top 3 are probably:
1. Consolidated billing and convergence;
2. Responsiveness;
3. Targeted campaigning and messaging in the same manner cellular and telco’s have been operating.

Customers in the advanced Australian energy markets are getting these benefits already, so it won’t be long before all global energy markets are experiencing a greater level of service.


Dean, thanks for the time today. I am really excited about the IT moves in the energy sector, and I think the play FDU is making to combine CIS solutions and financial payments has been a long time in coming.

You can find more information on FDU at Peace.com.

December 02, 2006

A Conversation with Ambassador Sklar on Solar in San Francisco

By Neal Dikeman, Partner, Jane Capital Partners LLC, Founding Contributor, Cleantechblog.com, and Contributing Editor, AltEnergyStocks.com.

This week I had an opportunity to have a conversation with Ambassador Richard Sklar, the President of the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission, on renewables and solar power in San Francisco. This is his second stint at the SF PUC, and besides a time in politics, Ambassador Sklar has served as an executive in and advisor to private manufacturing and engineering firms. I had met him and several of the top SF PUC team at Solar 2006 in San Jose, and had been extremely impressed with the SF PUC, both in their commitment of senior people to a solar initiative, and the diligence with which they were approaching the issues. So I was certainly curious to hear what he had to say.

For those of you that do not know, the SF PUC is the San Francisco owned power, water, and sewage provider for much of the municipal facilities in San Francisco.

From their website: "The San Francisco Public Utilities Commission (SFPUC) is a department of the City and County of San Francisco that provides water, wastewater, and municipal power services to San Francisco. Under contractual agreement with 28 wholesale water agencies, the SFPUC also supplies water to 1.6 million additional customers within three Bay Area counties. The SFPUC system provides four distinct services: Regional Water, Local Water, Wastewater (collection, treatment and disposal), and Power. "

I asked Ambassador Sklar about the SF PUC sustainability plan, found here, and what that meant for San Francisco power.

He asked me to consider that the SF PUC does 3 things - supplies water, cleans dirty water, and supplies power to San Francisco. As far as sustainability? According to Ambassador Sklar, San Francisco makes a concerted attempt to do the job with no more harm than necessary, and to be as clean as possible while doing it. After all, this is San Francisco.

On the power side, the SF PUC definitely thinks sustainable and green, and if Ambassador Sklar and his team are any indication, very, very big. They actually have established a network of solar monitoring stations around the city to measure our solar resource. Their primary source of power is the Hetch Hetchy hydroelectic power system. The SFPUC also owns a number of photovoltaic solar installations around the city, the largest of these is the marquee 675 kW system on Moscone Center. They also have 255 kW of solar and operate a waste gas cogen facility at the Southeast Waste Water Treatment Plant, and have a 283 kW solar project going in at Pier 96.

Ambassador Sklar shared that they are expecting to shortly launch solicitations to buy solar power from private producers (unlike private parties, the SF PUC has been unable to take advantage of state and federal rebates and tax incentives) - which is quite exciting, and like Moscone Center will be a marquee event for solar in California.

I did ask about the Moscone Center project, after all solar is not exactly a low cost resource, and 675 kW is not much of a power plant to get excited about in the grand scheme of things. But it seems the SF PUC certainly understands this, and is thinking much longer term. Ambassador Sklar was quick to answer that Moscone Center is just a demonstration project - nothing more, simply a first step in turning San Francisco power greener. The quote I liked, "we'll be serious about solar in San Francisco when we cover the airport and all of our reservoirs in solar cells." According to Ambassador Sklar the Moscone Center and other solar PV installations are just toys, demonstrations to say, in San Francisco we believe in green power, and we're here to stay in solar, so pay attention. That being said, they are also serious about delivering economic power to our city, and have no intention of igorning the cost side of solar - hence the intensive efforts by the SF PUC team in demonstration projects and analysis to understand what it will cost before they make a big plunge.

[I do find it mildly humorous that while the SF PUC may understand that their solar install is just a demonstration - the solar industry considered the Moscone RFP the biggest thing to hit it in years. Obviously the industry still has a lot of maturing to do.]

We also had a chance to talk about what the end game might be for San Francisco solar and renewable power - where exactly this first step was taking us. I have to say, these guys have much bigger ideas longer term; they are not sitting still. Throughout the discussion Ambassador Sklar described his vision of green power in San Francisco, and I left the meeting thinking seriously about the series of "What ifs" that he posed in our conversation?

What if we mandated that every new building in San Francisco must include solar panels?
What if we cover the aiport and our physical city owned infrastructure in solar panels?
What if we build our own wind farms in Northern California, and expand Hetch Hetchy hydro power?
What if we do put tidal power under the Golden Gate (San Francisco already announced in September that it is going to explore tidal power potential under the Golden Gate).
What if we just make ourselves go green?
But I'm not sure that Richard Sklar and San Francisco consider these to be "what-ifs", but more like "whens". They've got millions invested into green power already, and show no signs of stopping.

Note: If you want to hear it for yourself, Ambassador Sklar is scheduled to speak at the upcoming GreenVest 2007 Conference in San Francisco.





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