What’s Going On With Beacon Power and RailPower Tech?
Two diametrically-opposed stories for this post: Beacon Power [NASDAQ: BCON] and RailPower Tech [TSE:P]. The latter is up 134% on its week-ago closing price, while the former is down nearly 22% over the same period.
Beacon Power Corp
I wrote about Beacon Power a little while ago. The recent drop in share price is due in large part to the fact that Beacon announced, last Friday (Dec. 29), a glitch at one of its testing facilities in Massachusetts. This was followed by an analyst at Merriman Curhan Ford downgrading the company from Buy to Hold. Almost immediately, the stock began experiencing strong downward momentum on high volumes. 2.44 million shares changed hands today – compare that to a 3-month average of around 426,000.

I poked around but was unable to find much substantive info that would allow me to properly appraise the problem. Maybe some of you have info that you could share with the rest of us?
So far, Beacon’s tests in California and NY have gone well. As I told a reader who asked about this earlier, I think it is a tad early to panic and I haven’t dumped any of my stocks yet. Nonetheless, I wouldn’t buy any until I know more about the exact impact this problem will have on the company’s plans to begin generating revenue from its flywheel-based grid regulation system. Beacon hopes to begin offering its grid regulation services on a commercial basis in the 2nd half of ’07.
The company’s technology appears to have been well received by California's regulators, and, as I mentioned in my last post about them, this could be a 5-year affair saddled with volatility. Overall, however, I still buy their story, and I think the increasingly rapid deployment of renewable energy in California and other US states will create strong demand for Beacon’s applications. Anyone who's experienced rolling blackouts or brownouts in the past few years knows that grid regulation will be a big deal going forward.
RailPower Tech
The RailPower story is, as indicated initially, completely different. RailPower makes diesel-powered hybrid locomotives that are overall markedly more efficient and less polluting than conventional locomotives.
This is a stock that had been trading consistently above $4 on the TSE since the 2nd half of 2004. 2006 was nothing short of a misery year for RailPower; it went from a 52-week high of $6.67 to a low of $0.45 a few weeks ago. The stock began slowly rebounding in mid-December after the company announced it had managed to get out of a money-loosing contract that would have cost it around $17 million (C$20 million).

The real action began, however, on Dec. 27, when the stock closed 17% higher than its day-before closing price, and volumes reached 1.4 million shares. Volumes have averaged 4 million shares since Dec. 27, compared with a 3-month average of around 1 million. As mentioned in the intro, the stock gained 134% between Dec. 27 and today. I should mention that RailPower was actually down 5.75% today, probably on profit taking.
Other than the contract cancellation, I couldn’t find anything else that would account for this very sudden return to favor of RailPower. This is a company which I have been watching from afar for about a year, without ever really looking into it seriously. There was nothing about RailPower that made it stand out from the cleantech crowd, as far as I could tell; it has a really cool technology but is having a hard time turning it into strong sales and operating cash flows. I suspect, however, that it may only be a matter of time. If any of our readers have good insight about this company, it would be interesting to hear it.
(DISCLOSURE: I am long Beacon Power)















