A PHEV-EV Demand Curve, REEV-isited
On January 13th, I posted some speculations about how many people really want an Electric Vehicle that can go 400 miles without having to recharge. It was only a little over a week ago, but in the few days since then we've learned that what I used to call a "Plug-in (Series) Hybrid Electric Vehicle" (PHEV) is now called a "Range Exteneded Electric Vehicle" (REEV.) How quickly times change.
I also posted a poll to test my speculations at the end of the article. I asked about the Aptera, which will be offered in both EV and "REEV" versions: Would be willing to pay the extra $3,000 it is likely to cost for the REEV, and would they have another vehicle as well? The results are in, and they contain a number of surprises, but also some confirmation.
Ignoring respondents who weren't sure, wouldn't buy either version, or didn't know what I was talking about), here is a summary of the results:
|I'd buy an...||
How many vehicles would you own?
|1||2 or more||Any number of vehicles|
In the original article, I hypothesized that:
- People in multiple car households would be more likely to buy the EV than people in single car households, since they would have the option of using the other car for long trips. This guess was confirmed by the poll.
- Over 60% of multiple car households would opt for the EV version. Here, I have underestimated the the attraction of long range even in multiple car households.
- Most single car households would opt for the REEV version, since they were less likely to have other options for long trips. Nevertheless, I significantly underestimated the attraction of EVs to single car households.
- Combining the above, I hypothesized that at least 30% of all Apteras sold would be the EV version. In this case, my errors seem to have cancelled out, with 38% of respondents preferring the EV.
What can we conclude?
- I enjoy theorizing on very little evidence.
- While having another vehicle is a significant factor in the decision between an EV and an REEV, this is not the sole dominant factor in the decision.
- There is a significant market for highway capable, pure electric vehicles with limited range.
All of which leaves me with more questions than answers:
- Why is Detroit obsessed with REEVs?
- Why is no US carmaker considering an EV, when they are all rushing to come out with REEVs and PHEVs?
- Are the major carmakers leaving themselves open to outside competition?
Comments are open.
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